The Official IR35 Prediction Thread - IR35 Reform Day

[Andy2]

Happy IR35 day

[saptastic]

I think the delay was a mistake in terms of "compliance" - I'm in contract (outside, with a bank) and while I'm not paying HUGE attention to the market I'm still getting outside roles sent over.

Contrast that to last year, when I was looking for work in Feb/Mar and it seemed that the sky had collapsed!

So, Option 2 I think. There's definitely going to be some damage, don't get me wrong, but I think clients are now positioned to be a lot more sensible about their decisions and are coming round to how to ensure their contractors are outside.

Also, if WFH continues, that'll really take the sting out of Inside roles. Personally, for me, if I don't need to travel then even an inside role on an average rate is a far better prospect than permiedom

agreed.

[courtg9000]

5. IPSE will get IR35 scrapped

Is this why 3 pigs are trying to use my driveway as a runway?

[TwoWolves]

Once HMRC starts to see that their tax take post IR35 private sector rollout has not actually increased I am concerned that they will go into a red rage and start taxing everything that moves.

[Lance]

Once HMRC starts to see that their tax take post IR35 private sector rollout has not actually increased I am concerned that they will go into a red rage and start taxing everything that moves.

they're not going to know the true impact on tax gains until at least Summer 2022. Not that that will stop them calling it a success.

[jamesbrown]

they're not going to know the true impact on tax gains until at least Summer 2022. Not that that will stop them calling it a success.

They're probably never going to know the true impact, as there are too many moving parts. IIRC, the OBR rated the estimates "very uncertain" and the pandemic essentially destroys any baseline. Nevertheless, as you say, it will be declared an overwhelming success and no one will GAF either way.

[AtW]

HMRC will start taxing everything that moves.

FTFY

[JohntheBike]

Once HMRC starts to see that their tax take post IR35 private sector rollout has not actually increased I am concerned that they will go into a red rage and start taxing everything that moves.

agreed, and dividends for close companies will be taxed at 20%, with the current allowance removed.

[northernladuk]

agreed, and dividends for close companies will be taxed at 20%, with the current allowance removed.

Oh dear. Who let you back in?

[Andy4819]

I think the delay was a mistake in terms of "compliance" - I'm in contract (outside, with a bank) and while I'm not paying HUGE attention to the market I'm still getting outside roles sent over.

Contrast that to last year, when I was looking for work in Feb/Mar and it seemed that the sky had collapsed!

So, Option 2 I think. There's definitely going to be some damage, don't get me wrong, but I think clients are now positioned to be a lot more sensible about their decisions and are coming round to how to ensure their contractors are outside.

Also, if WFH continues, that'll really take the sting out of Inside roles. Personally, for me, if I don't need to travel then even an inside role on an average rate is a far better prospect than permiedom

Has anyone checked how the market is now with regards to the 'blanket' bans imposed last year? It seems that all the Banks took that approach. If they are now realizing that it was a mistake, maybe other markets will start to open up again. May take a couple of years to settle down though ....