Economy

[Hobosapien]

it's just directly invested in a market that is clearly close to its peak.

For those in doubt, via any FTSE graph for the last near 40 years and it doesn't seem credible that the current obfuscation to achieve high values can continue forever

It's not high when you take into account the devaluation of the currency the prices are based in. All assets look expensive and in a bubble.

Sure some companies more exposed to China supply chain issues will suffer more but that's why those investing in individual companies or sectors keep their eyes on the ball, the rest are better off in index trackers. No index goes to zero, so it's time in the market rather than timing the market that matters, if you have the time to wait for any crash to recover. Unless the apocalypse is truly here (it isn't) all asset prices will recover any short term losses at some point in the future.

Though feel free to panic. That's where those playing the longer game can scoop up some cheaper assets.


The central banks are working together to reduce the value of their currencies as it's easier to print* a few billion than let things crash, and some try to gain a short term advantage in the process by way of cheaper exports. There is no value being in cash long term. Most non-high risk saving methods don't even outperform true inflation. There is no sign of that changing with a return to normal interest rates, at the same time take each year as it comes as nothing stays the same forever.

I'm going to stay diversified and look for opportunities as the year progresses. i.e. normal procedure.


* Especially when that involves just pressing a few buttons on their computer.

[Whorty]

You will believe any old tripe posted on the internet

[DealorNoDeal]

...it's time in the market rather than timing the market that matters...

I wish someone had banged this into my thick skull many years ago. Lost a small fortune trying to be clever.

[Lance]

Worth remembering this virus is about 1/10th the strength of normal seasonal flu

*FACTCHECK*

Nope.

Flu has a mortality rate of 0.1%
COVID-19 is 2 - 3%

The Spanish flu pandemic was more deadly than COVID-19 but that's not a normal seasonal flu.

DON'T GET FACTS FROM THE DAILY MAIL

[AtW]

DON'T READ THE DAILY MAIL

FTFY

[tomtomagain]

*FACTCHECK*

Nope.

Flu has a mortality rate of 0.1%
COVID-19 is 2 - 3%

The Spanish flu pandemic was more deadly than COVID-19 but that's not a normal seasonal flu.

DON'T GET FACTS FROM THE DAILY MAIL

We cannot calculate the COVID-19 mortality rate because we don't have accurate data on how many people have had it.

The Chinese are counting the people who turn up & test positive. However, if you don't feel ill enough to go to a hospital, you won't appear in the statistics.

[rogerfederer]

@rogerfederer if you are concerned about financial safety, buy gold. There are plenty of companies in London running gold vaults. I don’t see how using a foreign bank makes you safer?

One thing that's clear is is that the number of gold bond issues and custom gold funds can't possibly exist. It's a bit like manuka honey:
10 times more is sold than is factually produced. Why? It has a huge markup and is worth faking if people will pay such a large price mark up for it. For the record, if you want bioactive honey, Scottish Highland Heather honey was found in university research to be the most biologically active in terms of anti-bacterial ability.

I would recommend only purchasing physical gold that you can view and store it in a vault or secure area, depending on the quantity you are purchasing.

[rogerfederer]

It's not high when you take into account the devaluation of the currency the prices are based in. All assets look expensive and in a bubble.

<snip>

I'm going to stay diversified and look for opportunities as the year progresses. i.e. normal procedure.

Probably the best way. I just have an overwhelming suspicion that the last financial crash and its suppressed aftermath will result in a real issue further down the line due to an unexpected event.

The tools available to combat monetary issues are now mostly used up. Although I ignore much of Adam Curtis' "HyperNormalisation" documentary the section on the way in which New York city became subservient to the banks is intriguing as it seems a mirror image of what has happened in the UK. Finance still rules and is reported by graduates as being the most desirable industry to go into.

Perhaps a reset wouldn't be so bad and could allow more diversification into other industries. I'm sure plenty of contractors here have worked in finance and can similarly comment on how many places have a truly toxic 'culture' whilst producing very little of true worth.

[TestMangler]

I'm in a better financial state to outlast the Corona Virus due to this surprise email I received this morning from 'HMRC'......soooo pleased at this surprise

Notice from HMRC


Dear test,

We are sending this email to announce that after the last annual calculation of your fiscal activity we have determined that you are eligible to receive a tax return of £1042.00 GBP


Description

Reference ID ROCJADSEGM248761KZ
Issued Date: 16/02/2020
Refundable Amount : £1042.00 GBP
United Kingdom

Note:

You can submit an application to claim your refund by clicking on "Ger your payment" below.

Get your payment

Currency £ GBP

Tax Return #8GB82761KZ 1042.00
Delivery: Electronically by Card
If you don't create a government gateway account, you will not receive your refund.This email was sent from a notification-only address that cannot accept incoming email. Please do not reply to this message.


Sub Total 1042.00
Delivery 0.00

Total £1042.00
Payment method: Online

Crown Copyright

[BlasterBates]

If you sit on the sidelines waiting for a crash, you could be waiting an awful long time and when it does crash it will still be worth more than the cash on the sidelines, not to mention all the dividends you could have earned. Currently there are stocks out there with 5% dividends.

Good it is true that at the moment the stock market is high so you want to wait for corrections to wade in. Autumn 2015 was a good time, so was the end of 2018.

The trick is not have everything in stocks, you need some money on the sidelines. A good rule of thumb is 25%. i.e. your stock portfolio drops by 50%, which is a pretty bad crash, you can then double your portfolio and within a few months you'll be up. In fact if you do have cash on the sidelines you can actually be very relaxed about a crash because on average 2 years after a crash where you double your portfolio at the bottom, you'll be much better off than if there hadn't been a crash.

Some might say how do you know when you've hit the bottom. That is actually easy, it's when everyone has run out of money and the stock market bounces around for 3-4 months at really cheap levels. A crash happens when there is a liquidity crisis, i.e. fund managers are forced to sell stocks to get at cash. They know those stocks are very undervalued but they have no choice as the banks have run out of money and are not lending any more. They still need to pay the bills. Anyone with cash can clean up buying stocks at "distressed" valuations.