Economy

[rogerfederer]

It seems that the nCov19 virus spread and economic impact hasn't been priced in to financial markets to the full extent it should be.

Not the black swan event, certainly, but if something else goes south unexpectedly in the next year I think we're looking at a major financial crash. With interest rates so low it seems a bad time to make any big financial decisions, such as moving house within the same country.

Has anybody considered moving more savings/investments offshore in a non-UK entity/bank? I've completed this before but it seems there is far more paperwork now than ever before for new transfers. A few contractors here appear to be mobile, including those residing in Germany, Scandinavia and Australia from what I've read over the last year. In which country do you base your investments and savings?

With the current political lot in power it doesn't bode well for the next crash. P/E (profits to earnings) ratios are also sky high and with the Chinese market hit due to the new coronavirus it seems wise to withdraw money from shares now. I see no reason why share prices are as high as they are, the profitability longer term simply cannot be there. All time stock market highs given the current issues across the world that span countries simply isn't viable for more than a couple of months.

[BR14]

not really, no

[Platypus]

I see no reason why share prices are as high as they are.

In the US at least, I thought it was still "The Trump Effect" where one assumes he'll do all he can to keep shares on the rise at least until he wins the election in November.

[NigelJK]

Worth remembering this virus is about 1/10th the strength of normal seasonal flu

[original PM]

[rogerfederer]

Misinformation.

There are indeed protests in China and have been for many years. They are suppressed and very difficult to report on due to it being easy to limit VPN/TOR traffic from known dissidents, so no twitter or outside access.

Protests in the last year have been lesser in number and size than in previous years, for whatever reason.

[rogerfederer]

Worth remembering this virus is about 1/10th the strength of normal seasonal flu

The incubation period and need for people to take time off will affect the economy. Normal colds, illnesses and flu may be mistaken for this and people will be encouraged to stay at home and rest rather than just work from home.

I can see the supply chain economic impact spreading to the services sector and dramatically affecting the revenues of companies.

As much as the Republicans under Trump wish to keep the stock market high to achieve re-election I suspect there's only so much that can be done to disguise the poor state of some companies. Accounting tricks are the order of the day for many companies. Tempted to withdraw all shares/index funds, even from the SIPP, as pouring money in before April 6th seems stupid if it's just directly invested in a market that is clearly close to its peak.

For those in doubt, via any FTSE graph for the last near 40 years and it doesn't seem credible that the current obfuscation to achieve high values can continue forever when a highly contagious illness could infect many in the UK and USA. We rarely get flu if exposed to it as our past illnesses help prevent it taking hold, but with nCov19 it seems that exposed to it will either become a carrier or unwell due to lack of exposure to general coronaviruses.

[original PM]

Misinformation.

There are indeed protests in China and have been for many years. They are suppressed and very difficult to report on due to it being easy to limit VPN/TOR traffic from known dissidents, so no twitter or outside access.

Protests in the last year have been lesser in number and size than in previous years, for whatever reason.

Indeed - misinformation.

Who gains the most?

[rossb2]

@rogerfederer if you are concerned about financial safety, buy gold. There are plenty of companies in London running gold vaults. I don’t see how using a foreign bank makes you safer?

[AtW]

Sockie alert!