Who will win the French elections?

[vetran]

With 34 percent of the vote counted, France's Interior Ministry says that far-right presidential candidate Marine Le Pen is leading with 24.6 percent of the vote followed by centrist Emmanuel Macron with 21.9 percent.

Its very close...

[jamesbrown]

Perhaps. I think that's the most likely; but 'events' dear boy, 'events' do not make it a racing certainty.

Not a certainty, but it would need some monumental events in the next week to change it. With Brexit and Trump, the polls were consistently close, but many were unwilling to suspend their disbelief. Here, the polling of Macron vs. Le Pen has never been within 15%, which is far beyond the bounds of polling error.

[BrilloPad]

Le Pen will win.

If things carry on like this Germany will vote in a far right candidate. Actually that has never happened before so why would it start now...

[original PM]

Le Pen will win.

If things carry on like this Germany will vote in a far right candidate. Actually that has never happened before so why would it start now...

I see what you did there

[BrilloPad]

I see what you did there

I find it incredibly sad that inequality between rich and poor is getting greater. So the poor respond by blaming immigrants instead of the rich....

[VectraMan]

Not a certainty, but it would need some monumental events in the next week to change it. With Brexit and Trump, the polls were consistently close, but many were unwilling to suspend their disbelief. Here, the polling of Macron vs. Le Pen has never been within 15%, which is far beyond the bounds of polling error.

Presumably all the people that are likely to vote for LePen did so already; she won't pick up any votes from the failed candidates. So that means in the second round it could be 78%-22%.

[BlasterBates]

be afraid......be very afraid.

Macron pledges punishment beatings for anyone daring to leave the EU

[NotAllThere]

I find it incredibly sad that inequality between rich and poor is getting greater..

As a rich person, I find it very cheering.

[barrydidit]

Presumably all the people that are likely to vote for LePen did so already; she won't pick up any votes from the failed candidates. So that means in the second round it could be 78%-22%.

That would be the traditional outcome. I think he'll will but the margin won't be anything like as stark.

Interesting that Macron only started his party a year ago. That's enough to make Le Pen the establishment figure

[VectraMan]

Interesting that Macron only started his party a year ago. That's enough to make Le Pen the establishment figure

She inherited the party as well.

It is interesting how the French have turned towards a sensible anti-establishment figure, whereas the British and Americans were seduced by voting against "The Establishment" but don't appear to have thought about what they were voting for.