Who will win the French elections?

[sasguru]

Presumably all the people that are likely to vote for LePen did so already; she won't pick up any votes from the failed candidates. So that means in the second round it could be 78%-22%.

Well not quite that margin, but your reasoning is sound.
Interestingly I think without Brexit, Le Pen would have done better.
The present (pound fall, sharp rise in inflation) and future effects of Brexit have got the Europeans running scared - in spite of what the Brexiters say, when it comes to the crunch, there is a majority in all European countries (albeit relatively slim in some) to stay in the EU.
Who wants the accelerated economic decline, dismemberment of a country and global geo-political insignificance of the surviving rump state that is going to be the British experience?

[original PM]

Presumably all the people that are likely to vote for LePen did so already; she won't pick up any votes from the failed candidates. So that means in the second round it could be 78%-22%.

By the same logic Le Pen could win 76-24

fact is the people who voted for other candidates now have to choose between le Pen and Macron.

As I have no real idea what the other candidates stood for so cannot really guesstimate which way they will vote.

[vetran]

Cheer up the lord of unfairness is back! Before we know it Brussels somewhere the US wants to invade will have WMDs pointed at Buckingham palace.

Emmanuel Macron, the favorite to win next month’s run-off after the first round of votes, pledged on the campaign trail to be “pretty tough” on the British “because we have to preserve the rest of the European Union.” He also promised to coax “banks, talent, researchers, academics” to relocate to France.

oh Goody.

[BlasterBates]

Yup, the UK is about to be "frog" marched into the EEA, and there it will stay.

[sasguru]

"He also promised to coax “banks, talent, researchers, academics” to relocate to France."

oh Goody.

Pity you don't fall in any of those groups, eh?
There is a strong possibility that rump-UK (Poundland, Little England?) will be a very 2nd rate place due to the paucity of talent left.

[sasguru]

By the same logic Le Pen could win 76-24

Nope.
Clearly logic isn't your strong point. But we knew that already.

[PurpleGorilla]

Yup, the UK is about to be "frog" marched into the EEA, and there it will stay.

All things considered - this may be the best place for us.

[original PM]

Nope.
Clearly logic isn't your strong point. But we knew that already.

Ok lets see if we can track that through

Macron got 24% of votes
Le Pen get 22% of votes

The first assumption was that everyone who was going to vote for Le Pen had done and therefore everyone who did not vote for Macron would do 2nd time around thus leaving Macron with a 78-22% margin - e.g. the assumption was that everyone else would vote for Macron and no extra votes would be polled for Le Pen.

But the assumption which is no less valid is that actually everyone who was going to vote for Macron has already done so and so in the 2nd round Macron would get no extra votes and they would all go to Le Pen - thus leaving Le Pen with a 76-24 victory.

However the reality as per my final statement that the people who did not vote for le Pen or macron first time around will now re-cast - they will all either vote for macron or le pen - however we have no idea which way they will vote.

In addition this also assumes that people who voted for Macron or Le Pen will vote the same way again - this also is not known.

Does this help?

[vetran]

Well not quite that margin, but your reasoning is sound.
Interestingly I think without Brexit, Le Pen would have done better.
The present (pound fall, sharp rise in inflation) and future effects of Brexit have got the Europeans running scared - in spite of what the Brexiters say, when it comes to the crunch, there is a majority in all European countries (albeit relatively slim in some) to stay in the EU.
Who wants the accelerated economic decline, dismemberment of a country and global geo-political insignificance of the surviving rump state that is going to be the British experience?

stop projecting your own life on Brexit, we get it you are a saddo !

[PurpleGorilla]

Who will win the French elections?

Ok lets see if we can track that through

Macron got 24% of votes
Le Pen get 22% of votes

The first assumption was that everyone who was going to vote for Le Pen had done and therefore everyone who did not vote for Macron would do 2nd time around thus leaving Macron with a 78-22% margin - e.g. the assumption was that everyone else would vote for Macron and no extra votes would be polled for Le Pen.

But the assumption which is no less valid is that actually everyone who was going to vote for Macron has already done so and so in the 2nd round Macron would get no extra votes and they would all go to Le Pen - thus leaving Le Pen with a 76-24 victory.

However the reality as per my final statement that the people who did not vote for le Pen or macron first time around will now re-cast - they will all either vote for macron or le pen - however we have no idea which way they will vote.

In addition this also assumes that people who voted for Macron or Le Pen will vote the same way again - this also is not known.

Does this help?

Possible, yes, likely, no.

Le Pen will pick up some further votes, but nothing like Macaron:



I'm going to take a punt and say it will be tighter:

Macaron 55% Le Pen 45%.