Who will win the French elections?

[BrilloPad]

Ok lets see if we can track that through

Macron got 24% of votes
Le Pen get 22% of votes

The first assumption was that everyone who was going to vote for Le Pen had done and therefore everyone who did not vote for Macron would do 2nd time around thus leaving Macron with a 78-22% margin - e.g. the assumption was that everyone else would vote for Macron and no extra votes would be polled for Le Pen.

But the assumption which is no less valid is that actually everyone who was going to vote for Macron has already done so and so in the 2nd round Macron would get no extra votes and they would all go to Le Pen - thus leaving Le Pen with a 76-24 victory.

However the reality as per my final statement that the people who did not vote for le Pen or macron first time around will now re-cast - they will all either vote for macron or le pen - however we have no idea which way they will vote.

In addition this also assumes that people who voted for Macron or Le Pen will vote the same way again - this also is not known.

Does this help?

It would help a non-cretin.

To the uber-cretin it just confuses him.

[jamesbrown]

By the same logic Le Pen could win 76-24

fact is the people who voted for other candidates now have to choose between le Pen and Macron.

As I have no real idea what the other candidates stood for so cannot really guesstimate which way they will vote.

We have polling for that The polls are quite clear, in a way they weren't clear at all on Trump or Brexit. Macron vs. Le Pen has never been within 15%. You may not believe them, but let's return here in two weeks and see. I predict a win for Macron with a very large margin.

Also, after Fillon, Macron was the least worst option for Brexit. With an extremist, Brexit would be totally sidelined. Macron is going to get bogged down in forming and attempting to run a gov't, so he won't be that important in the Brexit talks, regardless of his personal views.

[OwlHoot]

Ok lets see if we can track that through

Macron got 24% of votes
Le Pen get 22% of votes

The first assumption was that everyone who was going to vote for Le Pen had done and therefore everyone who did not vote for Macron would do 2nd time around thus leaving Macron with a 78-22% margin - e.g. the assumption was that everyone else would vote for Macron and no extra votes would be polled for Le Pen.

But the assumption which is no less valid is that actually everyone who was going to vote for Macron has already done so and so in the 2nd round Macron would get no extra votes and they would all go to Le Pen - thus leaving Le Pen with a 76-24 victory.

However the reality as per my final statement that the people who did not vote for le Pen or macron first time around will now re-cast - they will all either vote for macron or le pen - however we have no idea which way they will vote.

In addition this also assumes that people who voted for Macron or Le Pen will vote the same way again - this also is not known.

Does this help?

Crystal clear, but I fear probably too long for sas

By the time he's read to the end, he'll have forgotten the beginning and lost track of the argument.

[NotAllThere]

however we have no idea which way they will vote.

Yes we do. Most people who voted for Macron will vote for Macron again. Most people who voted for Le Pen will vote for Le Pen again. Generally someone who voted for a more left wing party, if they vote at all, are going to vote for the less right-wing party - i.e. Macron.

The first assumption was that everyone who was going to vote for Le Pen had done and therefore everyone who did not vote for Macron would do 2nd time around thus leaving Macron with a 78-22% margin - e.g. the assumption was that everyone else would vote for Macron and no extra votes would be polled for Le Pen.

But the assumption which is no less valid is that actually everyone who was going to vote for Macron has already done so and so in the 2nd round Macron would get no extra votes and they would all go to Le Pen - thus leaving Le Pen with a 76-24 victory.

It would only be valid if both politicians were considered by most of the population to be acceptable, or if voters just voted at random. That is simply not the case. While any individual voter may do anything, the probability of Le Pen winning is considerably lower than that of Macron. This is reflected in the odds the bookies are giving - 1/8 for Macron 9/2 for Le Pen.

Of course, low probability events do happen, but it is incorrect to suggest that the chances of either candidate winning are roughly the same.

[VectraMan]

Ok lets see if we can track that through

Macron got 24% of votes
Le Pen get 22% of votes

The first assumption was that everyone who was going to vote for Le Pen had done and therefore everyone who did not vote for Macron would do 2nd time around thus leaving Macron with a 78-22% margin - e.g. the assumption was that everyone else would vote for Macron and no extra votes would be polled for Le Pen.

But the assumption which is no less valid is that actually everyone who was going to vote for Macron has already done so and so in the 2nd round Macron would get no extra votes and they would all go to Le Pen - thus leaving Le Pen with a 76-24 victory.

However the reality as per my final statement that the people who did not vote for le Pen or macron first time around will now re-cast - they will all either vote for macron or le pen - however we have no idea which way they will vote.

In addition this also assumes that people who voted for Macron or Le Pen will vote the same way again - this also is not known.

Does this help?

As long as you continue to ignore reality, then yes you are completely right.

It's like saying we have no idea if LibDem supporters will vote UKIP. It's true: we can't be sure; they could. But we can make an educated guess.

[NotAllThere]

As long as you continue to ignore reality, then yes you are completely right.

It's like saying we have no idea if LibDem supporters will vote UKIP. It's true: we can't be sure; they could. But we can make an educated guess.

He's assuming that voters vote at random. Which is probably his modus operandum to be fair.

[BlasterBates]

Well the polls were pretty accurate so they'll probably also be for the second round.

[sasguru]

SO let's summarise:

Some complete and utter pish from PM

To which the usual imbeciles jump on board:

It would help a non-cretin.

To the uber-cretin it just confuses him.

Crystal clear, but I fear probably too long for sas

By the time he's read to the end, he'll have forgotten the beginning and lost track of the argument.

Leading to the unusual, and probably unprecedented on CUK, situation where they are shown up intellectually by the mauve monkey
Honestly guys if MM is telling you what's what, it's pretty clear you hit all the branches of the stupid tree when you fell out out of it.

Possible, yes, likely, no.

Le Pen will pick up some further votes, but nothing like Macaron:



I'm going to take a punt and say it will be tighter:

Macaron 55% Le Pen 45%.

[NotAllThere]

I think it's from the same school of probability that says there's only two possible outcomes: either Le Pen wins or she doesn't. Therefore the odds are 50:50.

[barrydidit]

I think it's from the same school of probability that says there's only two possible outcomes: either Le Pen wins or she doesn't. Therefore the odds are 50:50.

Just like the lottery then