[Merged]Brexit stuff

[Old Greg]

Did you read the link I posted last night? I would guess not as you are saying the same thing Scooty was.

Holy crap! Is somebody not paying full attention to your words of wisdom?

[jamesbrown]

.....and do you think she has a majority in parliament for that ?

Senior Tories demand Theresa May ends Brexit uncertainty over single market | The Independent

A majority for what? First, there's certainly a majority for a deal that ends free movement in a way that can credibly reduce net migration, as several tens of Labour MPs have already indicated. Anything less would see them unseated. This is a multidimensional battle. Second, you're misunderstanding parliamentary process. The prerogative power (and hence the court case that begins today) is largely irrelevant, even in the most extreme scenario where the HoL delays. Ultimately, there's no pathway to stopping A50. What do you propose happens next in preventing a particular outcome? Even if May outlines her negotiating vision in some detail (and she won't), achieving a particular outcome is beyond her control.

It's easy for the opposition to combine with rebel Tory MPs and force a vote. It's very difficult to force a vote that means anything. The next vote of substance will be choosing between a particular deal and no deal (WTO), not between one deal and a credible alternative. Other member states have indicated that they're unwilling to budge on free movement. Even a transitional arrangement looks doubtful. Parliament is surprisingly impotent once A50 is triggered and, absent parliament, there's only events, dear boy (which is why you're hoping for a financial calamity).

[GB9]

Holy crap! Is somebody not paying full attention to your words of wisdom?

Not my words. The ex gov of the mpc and one of his sidekicks, now a prof at Princeton.

Still, if you guys want to regurgitate your usual schoolboy economics then no one will stop you.

[jamesbrown]

Seems about right. In any event when a nation with the a current account deficit like ours, experiences a sudden sharp currency devaluation, high persistent inflation (of whatever kind) is sure to follow.

A nation with a large current account deficit that doesn't experience currency devaluation is heading for a very difficult position indeed. There couldn't be a better time to import inflation, and the BoE has already indicated that they'll look through it, even persistent inflation.

[BlasterBates]

So why are they blaming it on currency then? Because the CEO was pro remain?

It'll take some time but I'm sure you'll figure it out in the end.

[GB9]

A majority for what? First, there's certainly a majority for a deal that ends free movement in a way that can credibly reduce net migration, as several tens of Labour MPs have already indicated. Anything less would see them unseated. This is a multidimensional battle. Second, you're misunderstanding parliamentary process. The prerogative power (and hence the court case that begins today) is largely irrelevant, even in the most extreme scenario where the HoL delays. Ultimately, there's no pathway to stopping A50. What do you propose happens next in preventing a particular outcome? Even if May outlines her negotiating vision in some detail (and she won't), achieving a particular outcome is beyond her control.

It's easy for the opposition to combine with rebel Tory MPs and force a vote. It's very difficult to force a vote that means anything. The next vote of substance will be choosing between a particular deal and no deal (WTO), not between one deal and a credible alternative. Other member states have indicated that they're unwilling to budge on free movement. Even a transitional arrangement looks doubtful. Parliament is surprisingly impotent once A50 is triggered and, absent parliament, there's only events, dear boy (which is why you're hoping for a financial calamity).

He's hoping they get a backdoor vote that stops A50. Aka the Farron position I. E. We vote on the deal before A50 and if we vote against the deal then we stay in the EU.

If the Remain MPs truly respected the vote as they claim then they would support A50 and then want involvement in the negotiations. Of course they don't.

[GB9]

It'll take some time but I'm sure you'll figure it out in the end.

I haven't got time. You tell me.

[kolata]

It's easy for the opposition to combine with rebel Tory MPs and force a vote. It's very difficult to force a vote that means anything.

And were told the referendum is non-binding.

[jamesbrown]

He's hoping they get a backdoor vote that stops A50. Aka the Farron position I. E. We vote on the deal before A50 and if we vote against the deal then we stay in the EU.

If the Remain MPs truly respected the vote as they claim then they would support A50 and then want involvement in the negotiations. Of course they don't.

A vote against A50 is a vote to collapse the gov't. In the GE that follows, those MPs voting against would face their constituents. At this stage, the bar to preventing a withdrawal is incredibly high, almost impossibly so. The bremoaner strategy is slightly more subtle than voting down A50 in the near future; it's to delay and hope for events (as cover).

[NotAllThere]

Just hypothetically ('cos I don't think it would happen), but if enough rebel Tories colluded with the opposition to force a General Election, before Article 50 was invoked, wouldn't that delay it's invocation somewhat? And if in that G.E. the winning party had lobbied on the basis of staying in the EU and ignoring the referendum... well, that would be interesting times indeed.