[Merged]Brexit stuff

[BlasterBates]

Looks like we getting the wind up the US, let alone the EU.



Source: Business Live: Pearson slumps 10% - BBC News




You couldn't make it up. Project Wrexit

It's rather surprising that they're even trying to run discussions. If the UK stays in the Customs Union all trade deals need to be approved by the EU and all EU external tariffs must be applied. Until the government knows whether they want to be in the Customs Union any country is wasting it's time discussing anything.

The fact is if the government wants "Hard Brexit" it has to announce it at the same time as handing article 50 only then can they negotiate with other countries and sort out their WTO status. Basically if the government hasn't agreed to be outside the customs union by the end of March, no Hard Brexit otherwise the UK is ejected from the EU and will have no deals in place. In fact it's pretty clear with the German elections in October, negotiations will only start in earnest late 2017. Sort of more or less prescribes some sort of hurried "Soft Brexit", with some kind of interim status.

[Fronttoback]

20 years? That would be amazingly lucky. It took Germany 50+ years. Coupled with the fact the workers work with management rather than striking at evert opportunity.

The manufacturing boat has left the UK long ago. We're a services based economy true and full, we should stick to that. PPI switchboards for the world. Have you been in a accident?

It surely depends what type of stuff is being imported. If 50% of the imports are mass produced Chinese wotsits that could be produced anywhere, then they could switch production to UK. As long as setup costs do not exceed some function of savings then it's a goer. If you believe the pound will go back up to make this a bad investment then stop moaning about the pound being low.

Then the rest of the imports we will do without. Hospital machines that normally get replaced every 5 years, we will recycle. We will tighten our belts.

There is no doom here pal.

[scooterscot]

Looks like we getting the wind up the US, let alone the EU.

Britain needs to sort out its relationship with the European Union before it can begin to talk to the United States about any post-Brexit trade deal.

A statement of the obvious? Maybe, but the US trade representative Michael Froman has said it.

He told Reuters in Geneva: "The practicality is that until the UK sorts through with the EU the nature of its relationship... it's impossible to have a serious conversation about knowing what kind of trade agreement you can have with the UK separately."

Source: Business Live: Pearson slumps 10% - BBC News

According to the Financial Times, under a plan being considered by the Cabinet, the City of London might be able to keep its cherished access to the European Single Market, if the government pays billions of pounds to the European Union.

At the moment financial firms based in the UK have a business passport to sell their products across Europe, but that could be lost after Brexit.

According to the article, Prime Minister Theresa May has not ruled out paying to keep that system in place.

You couldn't make it up. Project Wrexit

[scooterscot]

Nobody said it would be quick.

It could take 20 years to increase manufacturing to the correct, sustainable level. It took 60 years to move it offshore.

The "factories" that are developed over the coming years will be highly automated and not create that many jobs.

20 years? That would be amazingly lucky. It took Germany 50+ years. Coupled with the fact the workers work with management rather than striking at evert opportunity.

The manufacturing boat has left the UK long ago. We're a services based economy true and full, we should stick to that. PPI switchboards for the world. Have you been in a accident?

[scooterscot]

Germany's manufacturing has been propped up by the low Euro to great cost to Mediterranean EU

It seems to me Germany's manufacturing was strong before the Euro came into circulation. Skilled labour, people with on the job training / apprenticeships and not all to university were the foundation of this success.

[vetran]

with one off manufacturing quickly becoming a cottage industry and large scale manufacture having little labour cost its only the tooling & raw materials that prevent it coming back if the government decide to push it.

[DodgyAgent]

This is simplistic view and does not work in practice. I am shocked that people can think this way in this day and age.

Manufacturing relies on global business as specialist suppliers world wide. Local businesses will NOT spring up to supply the parts cheaper than the imported gear. The cost of tooling and training is horrendous and nobody is going to rely on the pound being low for the next twenty years or so.

At one end of the scale I can recite when the millennium wheel was being build; the only factory in the world with a large enough lathe to mill the hub was Skoda in the Czech Republic. On the small end of the scale, my friend manufactures specialist sound equipment. Parts have to be imported from all over the world. One part can only be sourced from Germany and China. No-one else in the world has a machine to make the part.

If you want to look at self-sufficiency, take a look at Iran. Due to sanctions they had to innovate for themselves. After 20 years of hard graft they produce a variety of high-tec equipment but the cost is so horrendous the home market can’t afford it and it is too costly to export.

The UK can’t go back to the 50s manufacturing and rely on selling Morris Minors to the Empire.

You have a point but if the £ remains steady at its proper value (which now it is) then manufacturing will grow. Germany's manufacturing has been propped up by the low Euro to great cost to Mediterranean EU (unfortunately the Iranian option is not open to them because of the EURO). In the meantime American tourists are flooding to the UK and companies like ASOS and Burberry are making hay.

[Paddy]

Small business that imports stuff will suffer increased prices, that they might push on to the consumer causing inflation. If this causes enough pain, local businesses will spring up to supply the parts cheaper than the imported gear. People only import because it has been cheaper to do so. So all these little local businesses pop up manufacturing parts that used to be imported - and this is how the UK rebuilds it's manufacturing base.

This is simplistic view and does not work in practice. I am shocked that people can think this way in this day and age.

Manufacturing relies on global business as specialist suppliers world wide. Local businesses will NOT spring up to supply the parts cheaper than the imported gear. The cost of tooling and training is horrendous and nobody is going to rely on the pound being low for the next twenty years or so.

At one end of the scale I can recite when the millennium wheel was being build; the only factory in the world with a large enough lathe to mill the hub was Skoda in the Czech Republic. On the small end of the scale, my friend manufactures specialist sound equipment. Parts have to be imported from all over the world. One part can only be sourced from Germany and China. No-one else in the world has a machine to make the part.

If you want to look at self-sufficiency, take a look at Iran. Due to sanctions they had to innovate for themselves. After 20 years of hard graft they produce a variety of high-tec equipment but the cost is so horrendous the home market can’t afford it and it is too costly to export.

The UK can’t go back to the 50s manufacturing and rely on selling Morris Minors to the Empire.

[BlasterBates]

There is a big tussle going on in government at the moment.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...binet-tensions

The fact that the Brexit commitee is 50% Remoaners and 50% Brexiteers seems to point to a compromise that will not be a hard Brexit. May seems to be also contemplating continuing to allow unskilled workers. Probably will be some sort of compromise "oiled" by some hefty contributions to the EU budget.

[tomtomagain]

When I worked on a mega-project ( $10B budget ) part of the "deal" with the country that we were working with was that the project had to create local jobs and manufacturing facilities.

So we ended up building a several factories and fabrication plants in the country in question.

To bring back the skills the Government needs to be involved.

For example, let's say we want to build a new wind farm.

The government awards the contract but it would not just be scored on a financial basis, it would also look at creating a joint-partnership and training and employing local staff.

The government then prints £10B to pay for it. Invites the usual suspects to bid ( Siemens, Vestas and so on ).

At the end of the project, the UK has a wind farm and more importantly has re-skilled part of the workforce. The winning company has cash and a new ( jointly owned ) manufacturing facility.

Everyones a winner.