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[Merged]Brexit stuff

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  • sirja
    replied
    Originally posted by GB9 View Post
    I'm sure we will get a deal. You always forget the cost to the EU states. It may well be a fudge but doing a deal is the only sensible option (assumption that EU Commission will do sensible).
    Time will tell, but I've seen and heard nothing to change my view that the EU will play hardball. Try and 'War Game' it from their perspective. Potential cost of doing a deal that benefits the UK: An incentive to other countries (Sweden, Denmark, Netherlands, maybe even France) to push for similar leading to potential break up of the union. Cost of not doing a deal, purely economic impacting approx 8% of their exports. It has been and remains my view that for the EU, the cost of doing a deal outweighs the cost of not doing one. They will be encouraged by what's happened so far with Sterling and will look to dig in next year to try and provoke further volatility on Sterling and UK bonds. I could be wrong, but for now that's how I see it playing out. I think too many in the UK are only looking at this from a 'Pound and Pence' angle and are down playing the EU's desire to maintain stability.

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  • vetran
    replied
    Originally posted by BlasterBates View Post
    Yup agree with this, ranging from a Soft Brexit a la Switzerland, to a Hard Brexit.

    A key decision will be whether we remain in the customs union.

    The publication of Boris's article shows there isn't really enough conviction for a "Hard Brexit". A Hard Brexit requires leadership, an uncompromising "Margaret Thatcher" type with strong support,"bullying" everyone else. what we have though is an opportunistic "woffley" government throwing a bit of read meat now and then to the Daily Express and Sun readers but with no stomache to back up the rhetoric.

    It will be interesting
    Unfortunately the attitude from the EU is making compromise difficult. They are desperate that Brexit doesn't start a landslide.

    Consider everything indeed.

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  • BlasterBates
    replied
    Originally posted by GB9 View Post
    I'm sure we will get a deal. You always forget the cost to the EU states. It may well be a fudge but doing a deal is the only sensible option (assumption that EU Commission will do sensible).
    Yup agree with this, ranging from a Soft Brexit a la Switzerland, to a Hard Brexit.

    A key decision will be whether we remain in the customs union.

    The publication of Boris's article shows there isn't really enough conviction for a "Hard Brexit". A Hard Brexit requires leadership, an uncompromising "Margaret Thatcher" type with strong support,"bullying" everyone else. what we have though is an opportunistic "woffley" government throwing a bit of read meat now and then to the Daily Express and Sun readers but with no stomache to back up the rhetoric.

    It will be interesting
    Last edited by BlasterBates; 17 October 2016, 08:22.

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  • DodgyAgent
    replied
    Originally posted by darmstadt View Post
    Not this then: Britain looks at paying into EU budget after Brexit to get market access - FT | Reuters. Looks like the referendum was all about migration then
    Of course Britain is going to "look at" why would we not?

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  • GB9
    replied
    Originally posted by darmstadt View Post
    Not this then: Britain looks at paying into EU budget after Brexit to get market access - FT | Reuters. Looks like the referendum was all about migration then
    Isn't that a bespoke deal / fudge (if you're cynical)?

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  • GB9
    replied
    Originally posted by DodgyAgent View Post
    There never was a soft Brexit (if that means also leaving the single market as no one not even Cameron and Osborne admitted) and whatever deal is struck it will be "Bespoke" anyway. I am not sure what all the hysteria is about.
    Totally agree.

    The hysteria is the Remnants last ditch at halting the process.

    The EU rhetoric has hardened as they finally realise this is for real and it's going to cost them. They therefore revert to type, which in their case is threats and bullying.

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  • darmstadt
    replied
    Originally posted by DodgyAgent View Post
    There never was a soft Brexit (if that means also leaving the single market as no one not even Cameron and Osborne admitted) and whatever deal is struck it will be "Bespoke" anyway. I am not sure what all the hysteria is about.
    Not this then: Britain looks at paying into EU budget after Brexit to get market access - FT | Reuters. Looks like the referendum was all about migration then

    Leave a comment:


  • DodgyAgent
    replied
    Originally posted by GB9 View Post
    I'm sure we will get a deal. You always forget the cost to the EU states. It may well be a fudge but doing a deal is the only sensible option (assumption that EU Commission will do sensible).
    There never was a soft Brexit (if that means also leaving the single market as no one not even Cameron and Osborne admitted) and whatever deal is struck it will be "Bespoke" anyway. I am not sure what all the hysteria is about.

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  • GB9
    replied
    Originally posted by sirja View Post
    I think quite a few people are missing the main point. There is NO SOFT BREXIT OPTION on the table. The only 'Soft' option is the EEA and that is politically unacceptable. I voted remain but I would kick against the EEA option which is basically all the rules with no ability to influence or veto. The 'Bespoke British deal' that May and the 3 Brexiters are blabbing about is simply pie in the sky. It will never happen. The only options on the table are stay in (Ignore the referendum result, May's govt would fall if that happened.) or leave completely. The EU are banking on the fact that when the true cost of a hard Brexit starts to dawn the govt will row back. Both sides are dug in, buckle up, 2017 is going be one heck of a wild ride.
    I'm sure we will get a deal. You always forget the cost to the EU states. It may well be a fudge but doing a deal is the only sensible option (assumption that EU Commission will do sensible).

    Leave a comment:


  • DodgyAgent
    replied
    Originally posted by sirja View Post
    I think quite a few people are missing the main point. There is NO SOFT BREXIT OPTION on the table. The only 'Soft' option is the EEA and that is politically unacceptable. I voted remain but I would kick against the EEA option which is basically all the rules with no ability to influence or veto. The 'Bespoke British deal' that May and the 3 Brexiters are blabbing about is simply pie in the sky. It will never happen. The only options on the table are stay in (Ignore the referendum result, May's govt would fall if that happened.) or leave completely. The EU are banking on the fact that when the true cost of a hard Brexit starts to dawn the govt will row back. Both sides are dug in, buckle up, 2017 is going be one heck of a wild ride.
    We should just leave the EU and get on with making our own trade deals.

    Let SNP leader and first minister Nicola Sturgeon have her second Scottish independence referendum – and find out that a Hard Brexit is better than a Hard independence | City A.M.

    The first minister talks of Brexit supporters trading on xenophobia, but it is a strange understanding of the word when her definition of a “Hard” Brexit would make it easier for doctors from India and technicians from Korea to be welcomed to our shores.

    A xenophobia where the UK trade secretary is discussing free trade deals around the world and seeks to free the poorest of nations punished by the high tariffs of the EU’s despicable Customs Union. A xenophobia that demands of us that we take our seat at the top tables of world institutions from which we have been absent for some 40 years, that we become truly internationalist, for without that approach our country will wither and die.

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