[Merged]Brexit stuff

[Paddy]

C&A still exists here in Munich!

I thought that C&A was a guide for which side to wear panties

[jamesbrown]

Philip Hammond is Customs Union, Liam Fox is outside the Customs Union. The battle is on, but Philip Hammond is the more senior of the two. You may also notice that David Davis has retreated from his position of being outside the CU, he's turned woolly on that, and Theresa May keeps backing Hammond when the chips are down. According to a minister inside the cabinet the money is on Philip Hammond getting his way, he's already made it clear he's ready to walk and May can't afford that, the pound will get an absolute thrashing and that would be bad.

Again, there's a lot of projection there, because that's the outcome you want. Of the two scenarios you present, I think it's more likely that Hammond would walk, but I don't think Hammond will walk. May has been brutal in relegating HMT to just another department of gov't. This is taking things back to pre-Blair. It's been the received wisdom from Blair onwards that the Chancellor is a sort of deputy PM figure, but not any more. This is why we've seen all the briefing and counter-briefing about Hammond being on the outside and ready to resign (I don't think he is, it's just mischief).

Frankly, I don't think May will necessarily weight any of their individual opinions much. She's well-known for reviewing the minutia herself, listening to others, but then making her own decisions. However, she'll have to reconcile any decision about the SM (and CU to a lesser extent) with some very strong language and promises; she went much further than necessary at the CP conference. She could just about get away with sticking to the CU, because the language on trade has been very cautious ("promoting" free trade as opposed to definitely signing bilateral deals) and Fox has been slapped down several times. However, it wouldn't make sense, as argued in the piece I linked above. The SM is another matter, and she's struggle to backtrack on that (despite the rhetoric about a bespoke deal).

[shaunbhoy]

M&S didn't last too long in Germany, they put a bundle into the shops but the clothes were seen as too old fashioned

For the German market? Bwahahahahaha!!

Virgin records also went titsup here...

Not enough Oompah music in their back catalogues I suppose.

[DodgyAgent]

C&A still exists here in Munich!

I understand that the labels have your name on them and it doesn't matter which way round your are wearing them either

[darmstadt]

C&A still exists here in Munich!

M&S didn't last too long in Germany, they put a bundle into the shops but the clothes were seen as too old fashioned although the food section worked reasonably fine. Virgin records also went titsup here...

[scooterscot]

BHS doesn't exist anymore and Littlewoods is just a catalogue. So maybe M&S have done something right.

C&A still exists here in Munich!

[scooterscot]

Am beginning to get the impression Wrexiters are a bunch of disgruntled Ex M&S shoppers.

[BlasterBates]

I know you don't live in the UK (something that's remarkably consistent among those on CUK that are most heavily invested in continuity Bremain ). Either way, you're invested.

I agree that leaving the CU is one of the early decisions, along with the Single Market (SM), at least notionally. Mathematically, there are four possible outcomes:

1. SM+CU (continuity Bremain)
2. SM only ("soft", e.g. EEA)
3. CU only ("hard", e.g. Turkey)
4. Neither ("hardest", with degrees of hardness from FTA to WTO)

Remaining within the CU and SM is politically unpalatable. Leaving the CU is necessary for bilateral free trade (i.e. without the external tariff). Leaving the SM is necessary for substantive control over EU migration. In terms of the likelihood of the various options, I essentially agree with the analysis here. In other words, there are two options worth entertaining, one being inside the CU and the SM (continuity Bremain) and one being outside of both. It's pretty clear where May is heading (the FTA implementation of option 4, above), even if she holds some hope of a bespoke deal with sector-by-sector access to the SM. I really can't see bespoke access happening in practice.

Philip Hammond is Customs Union, Liam Fox is outside the Customs Union. The battle is on, but Philip Hammond is the more senior of the two. You may also notice that David Davis has retreated from his position of being outside the CU, he's turned woolly on that, and Theresa May keeps backing Hammond when the chips are down. According to a minister inside the cabinet the money is on Philip Hammond getting his way, he's already made it clear he's ready to walk and May can't afford that, the pound will get an absolute thrashing and that would be bad.

[jamesbrown]

If there is any deal outside the Customs Union that has to be decided very early on, because the UK government has to get it's skates on to get independent WTO membership and a load of FTA's in place when they leave. The idea the government will wait until 6 months before it exits and then announce it will be leaving the Customs Union is ludicrous. 2 years is a very very tight timeframe.

There are two negotiating stances for the government:

1) They're leaving the Customs Union and they want to hammer out a free trade deal like Canada.

2) They're staying in the Customs Union and then it's a trade off between some control on immigration, paying into a budget and
access to different bits of the market.

If the UK government doesn't announce it will be exiting the Customs Union when it enters the negotiations then it aint going to happen.

...and the most likely outcome:

Freedom of movement for skilled workers with a job offer, a huge wadge of cash into their budgets, and some restrictions on unskilled workers.

Will I be disappointed if they go for Hard Brexit in March ? not really I don't live in the UK

I know you don't live in the UK (something that's remarkably consistent among those on CUK that are most heavily invested in continuity Bremain ). Either way, you're invested.

I agree that leaving the CU is one of the early decisions, along with the Single Market (SM), at least notionally. Mathematically, there are four possible outcomes:

1. SM+CU (continuity Bremain)
2. SM only ("soft", e.g. EEA)
3. CU only ("hard", e.g. Turkey)
4. Neither ("hardest", with degrees of hardness from FTA to WTO)

Remaining within the CU and SM is politically unpalatable. Leaving the CU is necessary for bilateral free trade (i.e. without the external tariff). Leaving the SM is necessary for substantive control over EU migration. In terms of the likelihood of the various options, I essentially agree with the analysis here. In other words, there are two options worth entertaining, one being inside the CU and the SM (continuity Bremain) and one being outside of both. It's pretty clear where May is heading (the FTA implementation of option 4, above), even if she holds some hope of a bespoke deal with sector-by-sector access to the SM. I really can't see bespoke access happening in practice.

[LondonManc]

BHS doesn't exist anymore and Littlewoods is just a catalogue. So maybe M&S have done something right.

Maybe but they have struggled to do so for years. What's killed them is Matalan and Primark for me.