[Merged]Brexit stuff

[Fronttoback]

20 years? That would be amazingly lucky. It took Germany 50+ years. Coupled with the fact the workers work with management rather than striking at evert opportunity.

The manufacturing boat has left the UK long ago. We're a services based economy true and full, we should stick to that. PPI switchboards for the world. Have you been in a accident?

It surely depends what type of stuff is being imported. If 50% of the imports are mass produced Chinese wotsits that could be produced anywhere, then they could switch production to UK. As long as setup costs do not exceed some function of savings then it's a goer. If you believe the pound will go back up to make this a bad investment then stop moaning about the pound being low.

Then the rest of the imports we will do without. Hospital machines that normally get replaced every 5 years, we will recycle. We will tighten our belts.

There is no doom here pal.

[BlasterBates]

Looks like we getting the wind up the US, let alone the EU.



Source: Business Live: Pearson slumps 10% - BBC News




You couldn't make it up. Project Wrexit

It's rather surprising that they're even trying to run discussions. If the UK stays in the Customs Union all trade deals need to be approved by the EU and all EU external tariffs must be applied. Until the government knows whether they want to be in the Customs Union any country is wasting it's time discussing anything.

The fact is if the government wants "Hard Brexit" it has to announce it at the same time as handing article 50 only then can they negotiate with other countries and sort out their WTO status. Basically if the government hasn't agreed to be outside the customs union by the end of March, no Hard Brexit otherwise the UK is ejected from the EU and will have no deals in place. In fact it's pretty clear with the German elections in October, negotiations will only start in earnest late 2017. Sort of more or less prescribes some sort of hurried "Soft Brexit", with some kind of interim status.

[Paddy]

It surely depends what type of stuff is being imported. If 50% of the imports are mass produced Chinese wotsits that could be produced anywhere, then they could switch production to UK. As long as setup costs do not exceed some function of savings then it's a goer. If you believe the pound will go back up to make this a bad investment then stop moaning about the pound being low.

Then the rest of the imports we will do without. Hospital machines that normally get replaced every 5 years, we will recycle. We will tighten our belts.

There is no doom here pal.

There are many issues in order to compete with China. Even if the factory in the UK and China are like for like, the wage difference is huge. If a Chinese presses a button on a CNC machine it will cost 10p whereas in the UK it £10, however the finished product is the same but more expensive.

Moreover, the Chinese have the will to work and be successful. If the UK want’s to compete with that they will need a one child policy, parents who dedicate their lives to educating children and children who will be a school eight hours a day and do another four hours of homework in the evening on not spent their time on their iPhones. Government will have to deregulate panning permission, deregulate working conditions, wages etc.

It’s not going to work in the UK.

[jamesbrown]

It's rather surprising that they're even trying to run discussions. If the UK stays in the Customs Union all trade deals need to be approved by the EU and all EU external tariffs must be applied. Until the government knows whether they want to be in the Customs Union any country is wasting it's time discussing anything.

The fact is if the government wants "Hard Brexit" it has to announce it at the same time as handing article 50 only then can they negotiate with other countries and sort out their WTO status. Basically if the government hasn't agreed to be outside the customs union by the end of March, no Hard Brexit otherwise the UK is ejected from the EU and will have no deals in place. In fact it's pretty clear with the German elections in October, negotiations will only start in earnest late 2017. Sort of more or less prescribes some sort of hurried "Soft Brexit", with some kind of interim status.

You're teeing yourself up to becoming rather upset (and don't pretend you're not invested, as it's all you post about). It's a possible outcome, but it's a very unlikely outcome. I agree that trade discussions are near pointless until our status within the CU is resolved. None of these trade discussions are incompatible with a subsequent fudge ("we were promoting global free trade"), but this is a two-sided process, and the starting position of both sides appears to be the hardest possible Brexit. It may get relaxed with an interim arrangement, but it would be exceptionally difficult for May to walk back from her very clear promises (no ECJ or EFTA, by virtue of case law, restrictions on unskilled migration etc). Any one of these promises points to a hard Brexit. She's been very careful not to promise anything about the budget though. My guess is a comprehensive FTA as the negotiating aim with some carve out (via budget contributions) for the City and sector-specific compensation for any tariff barriers, perhaps in the interim only. The Eurocrats don't seem too enthused. As I say, all guns are pointing in the same direction.

[scooterscot]

There are many issues in order to compete with China. Even if the factory in the UK and China are like for like, the wage difference is huge. If a Chinese presses a button on a CNC machine it will cost 10p whereas in the UK it £10, however the finished product is the same but more expensive.

And that's just the tip of the iceberg.

It should be a school exam question. How is it possible Germany continues to manufacture pencils (yes a bit of wood with lead in it) in and not copied in China? How is it they can pay staff more in Germany than their counterparts in China and still be successful?

Once you understand this you'll know why it's not possible to have a manufacturing business of the same in the UK. Family owned for starts. Shareholders would have pawned the UK business long ago for a quick profit.

Long term planning. Again, short term planing is despised in Germany's small businesses.

Keep it in Germany, 'made in Germany', is more important than profits. That's something you'll never hear a UK manufacturer say.

[SueEllen]

And that's just the tip of the iceberg.

It should be a school exam question. How is it possible Germany continues to manufacture pencils (yes a bit of wood with lead in it) in and not copied in China? How is it they can pay staff more in Germany than their counterparts in China and still be successful?

Once you understand this you'll know why it's not possible to have a manufacturing business of the same in the UK. Family owned for starts. Shareholders would have pawned the UK business long ago for a quick profit.

Long term planning. Again, short term planing is despised in Germany's small businesses.

I've contracted for family owned businesses in the UK.

In one when the founder wanted to retire he sold up. However he influenced who the company was sold to the first two times he then died. The third time because the managing director/CEO was there when the company was founded, he influenced who the company was sold to and ensured it wasn't sold to assert strippers. It is still going under the brand name of this third firm years later. He knew if he sold to the asset strippers what they had developed wouldn't exist.

However another small company I worked for the founder didn't care who he sold his company too. He was happy for asset strippers to have the company as long as he got his pay day as he had done it that way before.

What is interesting in the first guys did not get any less money for caring the company they founded wasn't sold to asset strippers. They just had to do more work in finding firms who would buy the company and keep it in their portfolio as a going concern.

[BlasterBates]

You're teeing yourself up to becoming rather upset (and don't pretend you're not invested, as it's all you post about). It's a possible outcome, but it's a very unlikely outcome. I agree that trade discussions are near pointless until our status within the CU is resolved. None of these trade discussions are incompatible with a subsequent fudge ("we were promoting global free trade"), but this is a two-sided process, and the starting position of both sides appears to be the hardest possible Brexit. It may get relaxed with an interim arrangement, but it would be exceptionally difficult for May to walk back from her very clear promises (no ECJ or EFTA, by virtue of case law, restrictions on unskilled migration etc). Any one of these promises points to a hard Brexit. She's been very careful not to promise anything about the budget though. My guess is a comprehensive FTA as the negotiating aim with some carve out (via budget contributions) for the City and sector-specific compensation for any tariff barriers, perhaps in the interim only. The Eurocrats don't seem too enthused. As I say, all guns are pointing in the same direction.

If there is any deal outside the Customs Union that has to be decided very early on, because the UK government has to get it's skates on to get independent WTO membership and a load of FTA's in place when they leave. The idea the government will wait until 6 months before it exits and then announce it will be leaving the Customs Union is ludicrous. 2 years is a very very tight timeframe.

There are two negotiating stances for the government:

1) They're leaving the Customs Union and they want to hammer out a free trade deal like Canada.

2) They're staying in the Customs Union and then it's a trade off between some control on immigration, paying into a budget and
access to different bits of the market.

If the UK government doesn't announce it will be exiting the Customs Union when it enters the negotiations then it aint going to happen.

...and the most likely outcome:

Freedom of movement for skilled workers with a job offer, a huge wadge of cash into their budgets, and some restrictions on unskilled workers.

Will I be disappointed if they go for Hard Brexit in March ? not really I don't live in the UK

[LondonManc]

And that's just the tip of the iceberg.

It should be a school exam question. How is it possible Germany continues to manufacture pencils (yes a bit of wood with lead in it) in and not copied in China? How is it they can pay staff more in Germany than their counterparts in China and still be successful?

Once you understand this you'll know why it's not possible to have a manufacturing business of the same in the UK. Family owned for starts. Shareholders would have pawned the UK business long ago for a quick profit.

Long term planning. Again, short term planing is despised in Germany's small businesses.

Keep it in Germany, 'made in Germany', is more important than profits. That's something you'll never hear a UK manufacturer say.

The other side of that is sourcing decisions. Marks & Spencer lost a massive competitive advantage when they chose to source clothes from abroad rather than from within the UK. There was no point shopping there any more than going to Littlewoods or BHS. They also lost a lucrative export market where lots of people I knew used to send M&S clothes as gifts to ex-pats.

[eek]

The other side of that is sourcing decisions. Marks & Spencer lost a massive competitive advantage when they chose to source clothes from abroad rather than from within the UK. There was no point shopping there any more than going to Littlewoods or BHS. They also lost a lucrative export market where lots of people I knew used to send M&S clothes as gifts to ex-pats.

+1 don't think I own anything made by M&S anymore. I'm more likely to buy something from Sainsburys (its where you park for free in town)...

[vetran]

+1 don't think I own anything made by M&S anymore. I'm more likely to buy something from Sainsburys (its where you park for free in town)...

+1