[Merged]Brexit stuff

[sasguru]

The EU position.is backed up by analysts in the City.

Real Chance Brexit Won't Happen, Says Kapoor - Bloomberg

I think you're wrong. Our 4% of world GDP, massively indebted economy, will sock it to them. All it requires is will.

[GB9]

You're just crapping your pants that you'll get turfed out of Germany. Admit it.

I'm crapping my pants that he's sent back.

[GB9]

The EU position.is backed up by analysts in the City.

Real Chance Brexit Won't Happen, Says Kapoor - Bloomberg

Yeah, keep trying. Denial still alive and kicking.

[NotAllThere]

The EU position.is backed up by analysts in the City.

Real Chance Brexit Won't Happen, Says Kapoor - Bloomberg

Yeah, keep trying. Denial still alive and kicking.

It certainly is. Any evidence presented that doesn't back your world view is dismissed as denial. You can't express why you think Kapoor is wrong, he just is.

[BlasterBates]

Yeah, keep trying. Denial still alive and kicking.

It's not me that's denying, I just posted the link, it's all the economists and not least Tory government ministers who are looking to torpedo Brexit.

Nigel Farage has used his Ukip conference speech to accuse Tory ministers of fighting to remain in the EU | The Independent

You need to consider why all these analysts and politicians think a humiliating climb down from Brexit is possible.

For example could this be the reason ?

Britain will be irrelevant to China after Brexit, warns former French economy minister Emmanuel Macron | The Independent

or the fact that Greenland still exports almost everything to the EU 30 years after leaving because no-one else has any interest in buying its goods ?

[jamesbrown]

It's not me that's denying, I just posted the link, it's all the economists and not least Tory government ministers who are looking to torpedo Brexit.

More specifically, all the Bremoaning economists and Tories.

If positions become entrenched, there are two possible outcomes, representing the extremes of the spectrum, i.e. Brexit is torpedoed along with May's gov't, or a hard Brexit becomes inevitable. An entrenched negotiation is absolutely a possible outcome because the EU, particularly the EC, have demonstrated their willingness for economic self-harm in the long-term interests of the project, and many of them see the four freedoms as inviolable. In that situation, my money is on a hard Brexit, in which case those Brits living elsewhere in the EU should probably look to secure their positions now, because May seems willing to use that as a bargaining chip too (which is pretty silly IMO).

[sasguru]

Way back in March, when I said I was against Brexit, one of the reasons was the loss of British prestige and standing in the world. Of course a small island with a small, highly indebted, economy relative to its continental neighbour loses any strategic value to the US (for political reasons), let alone the Asian countries who want access to the single market (hence economic reasons).
Geo-politically we become irrelevant - it's hard to see why Britain should keep its top table seat at the UN, for example.

[WTFH]

More specifically, all the Bremoaning economists and Tories.

If positions become entrenched, there are two possible outcomes, representing the extremes of the spectrum, i.e. Brexit is torpedoed along with May's gov't, or a hard Brexit becomes inevitable. An entrenched negotiation is absolutely a possible outcome because the EU, particularly the EC, have demonstrated their willingness for economic self-harm in the long-term interests of the project, and many of them see the four freedoms as inviolable. In that situation, my money is on a hard Brexit, in which case those Brits living elsewhere in the EU should probably look to secure their positions now, because May seems willing to use that as a bargaining chip too (which is pretty silly IMO).

What other "bargaining chips" are there? (I'm not questioning whether that is one, I'm asking you to list all the things the UK has that could be used for bargaining)
What do you mean by a "hard brexit"? Is that breaking all ties with the other European nations? Something else?

[sasguru]

In that situation, my money is on a hard Brexit, in which case those Brits living elsewhere in the EU should probably look to secure their positions now, because May seems willing to use that as a bargaining chip too (which is pretty silly IMO).

Look on the bright side: the sudden influx of pensioners will destroy the NHS for good

[jamesbrown]

Way back in March, when I said I was against Brexit, one of the reasons was the loss of British prestige and standing in the world. Of course a small island with a small, highly indebted, economy relative to its continental neighbour loses any strategic value to the US (for political reasons), let alone the Asian countries who want access to the single market (hence economic reasons).
Geo-politically we become irrelevant - it's hard to see why Britain should keep its top table seat at the UN, for example.

Oh, I don't know, perhaps because we have the fifth largest economy, the fifth largest defence budget, and we're the first major economy to meet the UN's 0.7% GNI aid target, for starters.

Of course, Brexit threatens all of that