Brexit

[eek]

Bloody 'ell, that's brave. I suppose, as a day trade, it makes sense. I think it was overdone today. The rumours are that the ORB and/or YouGov polls tonight are showing a swing back to Remain, although similar speculation before the last ICM poll was completely wrong (professional traders are clever buggers).

Buy on the rumour, sell on the news?

[diseasex]

Bloody 'ell, that's brave. I suppose, as a day trade, it makes sense. I think it was overdone today. The rumours are that the ORB and/or YouGov polls tonight are showing a swing back to Remain, although similar speculation before the last ICM poll was completely wrong (professional traders are clever buggers).

Im prepared to escape at 1.4670 ... just it seems it cant break 1.4660 but as time goes its more likely i will lose on it.
if it doesnt go down next hour i'm out.

[jamesbrown]

For those trading the Brexit polls:

Poll schedules are a bit sketchy but there is talk that two polls may be released today. An online poll from YouGov may be released at an unknown time (after the London close) and a phone poll from ORB is also due and is rumored at 2100 GMT (5 pm ET).

The latest YouGov poll on June 17 put the remain lead at 44-43% with 13% undecided. The most recent ORB poll was way back on June 9 whenthey found the lead side was up 53% to 47% among decided voters.

On Tuesday, a poll from ComRes is due while polls from YouGov, TNS and Opinium may all be released the day before the vote.

Have fun!

I think the YouGov poll is for the Times, so probably around 10pm for the Tuesday release. The ORB poll would be for the Telegraph and is probably 9pm, as you say, because that's the typical release cycle for the Telegraph IIRC. Could be a sharp swing back tomorrow unless these polls show a good result for Bremain. The ORB poll is a little dubious though, IMO, because the sample size is only 800, and there have been a few unbelievable ORB polls in recent weeks. I personally trust YouGov more, although it's online.

[unixman]

Can't win.

How many times already has this Tory government passed on laws to the HoL without public consent? I get it, we can vote them out. But there's been little difference between the two top parties over the years. Law after law diluting our privacy, for example, in the name of terrorism. The EU does far more to protect our privacy. If this is the direction UK government is taking I'll take what the EU has to offer any day.

I'm with you on general dissatisfaction with the leading UK parties, for several years now. And I agree the Lords has considerable powers, and can modify/slow down laws despite not being elected. They might face their own referendum one day. However, many citizens living in undemocratic countries would happily swap your government for theirs. If you are tempted when the EU Commission offers you a temporary sweet (eg. extra privacy) to give up your vote permanently, well all I can say is that history shows us that keeping your vote is better. I also believe that your grandchildren will thank you, and that voting Brexit will lead to a fully democratic Euro state.

[jamesbrown]

Buy on the rumour, sell on the news?

Yeah, happens all the time, although I don't think that will be happening on Friday; more buy the rumour, buy the fact even more. I think it will be an epic relief rally in shares (esp. as the S&P and others are at or near all time highs, which are likely to be taken out), but probably short lived - perhaps a week. I'm less sure about Cable (other than the immediate bounce), as experience suggests that overdone moves in Cable can persist against the fundamentals for quite a while.

[jamesbrown]

Im prepared to escape at 1.4670 ... just it seems it cant break 1.4660 but as time goes its more likely i will lose on it.
if it doesnt go down next hour i'm out.

Probably wise, TBH. The poll results later today could produce wild swings at this stage, and it's becoming very hard to embargo these polls now. The last TNS poll was leaked in advance.

[unemployed]

Perhaps Tim Martin can organise free beer to all under 30s for the whole of the 23rd?

get it done

you can swing this .

http://www.ceoemail.com/s.php?id=e-8913

[Jog On]

Is no one trading the lead up shenanegans?

I've got 4 trades on today

[Old Greg]

Of course. A Remain vote keeps Cameron and Osborne at the helm for at least 4 more years. What is their record like in tackling zero hours contracts, for example? 6 years on and fook all improvement.

Agreed. It's just a good job we have the EU to protect us against the erosion of holiday pay, maternity entitlements etc.

[jamesbrown]

Is no one trading the lead up shenanegans?

I've got 4 trades on today

Most of my punts were late last week or earlier. I'm not a day trader, especially with currencies and especially not in this market. I guess there's a lot of money to be made if you know what you're doing, but lost too. Swings of 2% in Cable are pretty unprecedented, even more as a leveraged play.

But, feel free to report your daily doings leading up to the vote