State of the Market

[kingmob]

wtf? Dont all call at once!

1st Line Support Engineer - Office 365, VIP, Field, Windows, Azure, AD, Home Based (UK wide travel)

[willendure]

What I don't understand is lack of news on the subject. There is nothing being reported on official channels. Usually when there is such a downturn it's everywhere.

Interesting question, and something I have though about also.

If you think back to Aug 2007, there was a definite moment where the market plunged 15% in a day, and the papers had large headlines declaring a "Credit Crunch", and then it seemed like all they talked about for months, even years after. DotCom crash, similarly big story, but did not stay in the news for nearly so long - in part because it was eclipsed by 9/11, in part because it was not a systemic threat in the way 2007 and too-big-to-fail was.

If you think back to the 1990/1 recesssion, I remember my dad being out of work then, it was not really much of a story at all. What was the actual story back then? Credit tightening and rates increase or something. Something boring that most people were not interested in reading or hearing about. There was the first Gulf war too, with 3d cutaway diagrams of laser guided bombs in all the papers, way more exciting than some technical financial stuff.

Today, we are not in a crisis, just a kind of malaise. Seems to me like the UK has been in this malaise ever since the 2016 brexit vote. Things are not changing fast, there is no big crisis story to focus on, just a steady decline in living standards, perceived wealth and decline of the nation. Multiple and complex causes that cannot be summed up in a single headline or blamed on a particular scapegoat or government.

You will know we have entered the crisis phase when it gets a name that everybody knows.

As to what might tip us into that phase... Yen carry trade unwinding and an escalating Asian crisis perhaps. Maybe the 2025 corporate debt wall will fail to dematerialize unlike previous walls. Possibly the disruptive changes that Trump is planning on making to world trade will bring the house of cards down. Or maybe just the slow death until rising unemployment reaches a point where we are officially in a recession.

Figures on unemployment and inflation look good just now. But we also have to acknowledge that the way these things are counted is constantly being fudged to make them look good. No sensible government or central bank is going to come out and say "things are bad" until well after the fact, because saying so can be a self fulfilling prophecy. For example, look at what happen when Keir Starmer said the budget was going to be painful about 6 weeks before hand - that really killed the mood didn't it?

I think one indicator you can look at to get a sense of impending crisis mode, is the DXY (dollar index). Currently sitting close to 107. If it starts to go up again and breaks above 110 - game is on!

[dsc]

wtf? Dont all call at once!

Wow, so much goodness..."exceptional [...] opportunity" and "VIP support" also never new that having a car is a skill.

[dsc]

[...]
Figures on unemployment and inflation look good just now. But we also have to acknowledge that the way these things are counted is constantly being fudged to make them look good. No sensible government or central bank is going to come out and say "things are bad" until well after the fact, because saying so can be a self fulfilling prophecy. For example, look at what happen when Keir Starmer said the budget was going to be painful about 6 weeks before hand - that really killed the mood didn't it?
[...]

Isn't this because a fair amount of people are doing two jobs just to survive? jobs are paid at 2005-2010 levels, with current prices and mortgages being uber expensive, some people really have to work constantly to make ends meet. This would drive unemployment down, but it isn't a positive thing overall (definitely not for the ones doing it).

[willendure]

Isn't this because a fair amount of people are doing two jobs just to survive? jobs are paid at 2005-2010 levels, with current prices and mortgages being uber expensive, some people really have to work constantly to make ends meet. This would drive unemployment down, but it isn't a positive thing overall (definitely not for the ones doing it).

I really don't know, could be a factor.

I think unemployment figures are not counting those who have given up on work altogether, ill health, depression and so on. Supposedly those numbers are rising. Also employment as a %age could be growing, but productivity still shrinking if the workforce is getting smaller due to retirement and emmigration.

[SchumiStars]

If people are double-dipping (2 contracts at the same time), would this decrease the unemployment statistics?

Double negative but if someone has 2 jobs would that mean the statistics would suggest there were 2 people employed rather than one?

[jamesbrown]

The UK employment statistics administered by ONS are currently in a dire state, as widely reported by the FT and others.

[SussexSeagull]

The US economy is apparently statistically on a good place but the election result last month suggests that isn’t being felt by everyone.

i have heard this called the White Collar Recession so it is probably going unnoticed by large parts of the population. The problem is people who were previously tax payers are not anymore and eventually need benefits.

if the tech job aren’t coming back then a lot more people will need state help in their dotage that didn’t think they would.

Unless this is a temporary blip the repercussions will go on for years.

[SchumiStars]

The US economy is apparently statistically on a good place but the election result last month suggests that isn’t being felt by everyone.

i have heard this called the White Collar Recession so it is probably going unnoticed by large parts of the population. The problem is people who were previously tax payers are not anymore and eventually need benefits.

if the tech job aren’t coming back then a lot more people will need state help in their dotage that didn’t think they would.

Unless this is a temporary blip the repercussions will go on for years.

I honestly don't think it's coming back.

IT is an affordable luxury for most companies, to help improve efficiency. When companies are efficient there is no need to invest, when the returns are 5/10yrs down the line.

Software development is no longer seen as difficult, as it is not. It's seen as another trade such as and similar to brick layering, it can be outsourced quite easily to a consultancy, off-shore or to a freshy.

Unless we get another .dot com boom, we are dead.

[dsc]

If people are double-dipping (2 contracts at the same time), would this decrease the unemployment statistics?

Double negative but if someone has 2 jobs would that mean the statistics would suggest there were 2 people employed rather than one?

It's probably complicated, that one person will tick two jobs, but it means no one else will be doing the second one, so you could also say that it should increase unemployment. Simple exaggerated example is a group of 10 people, where one does 10 jobs and 9 people have no job, unemployment rate then is 90% if you ask each person whether they have a job, but if you talk to the employers, they would say all jobs are filled. No idea how ONS records figures and how they check if positions are filled or not...and then of course there's the question of how far "massaged" the figures are (ie. based on interpolation / guessing etc.).