State of the Market

[SchumiStars]

Everything + Personal Statement. I have a feeling that they deliberately ask too many things, so they have a reason to support candidate rejection and makes it easier to give away the role to Public Sector contracting companies like BJSS, Kainos etc.

The funny thing is that the same contractors who were rejected by them earlier gets the role at a better rate. Public sector Efficiency is Awesome!

I never understand these rates. Are they from the client or the agency? Worse still, applying for the role, will result in no interviews or any progression. Which then kills ones own motivation.

[willendure]

I don't really buy into all this theory stuff if I'm honest. Common sense suggests that when both elections are done and rates start getting cut, the market will improve. Better still if some peace deal gets struck. Those on the bench, hold on there and keep the faith.

Timing is near impossible to call on these things. Another technical indicator I just remembered about is:

* Year on year unemployment rate increasing by over 10%. Currently over 10% in the USA.

Election in the UK matters about as much as our country matters any more. What the US economy is doing matters to us a lot more.

[Fraidycat]

A stock market correction/crash is just too horrible to think about.

There is a bubble in some large AI stocks in the USA, led my Nvidia, we jut have to pray that bubble continues on for several more years. If the bubble pops it could take down the rest of the market with it and ruin the recovery we are expecting next year.

[dsc]

Christ. Just had an email for a Service Manager for DWP in Blackpool. 2-3 days on site. Tons of qualifications and experience required..... 260-285 a day inside...

That's the worst rate I think I've ever seen for work in my area. I think I'll pass thank you.

That's between 46-50k a year salary as perm so they might simply be matching some perm budget, but they want to keep it a temp placement so via umbrella.

[willendure]

A stock market correction/crash is just too horrible to think about.

There is a bubble in some large AI stocks in the USA, led my Nvidia, we jut have to pray that bubble continues on for several more years. If the bubble pops it could take down the rest of the market with it and ruin the recovery we are expecting next year.

Ask yourself this question, with economic indicators heading in the wrong direction, do you think it is likely that there will be a smooth recovery when interest rates are cut (A)? Or does it seem more likely there will be some kind of chaotic period required to clear out the damage before that can happen (B)? What usually happens in these situations A or B?

We are currently in the deepest and longest interest rate inversion since.... 1929.

Do bubbles ever not pop, especially big ones?

Timing and size of the crash are really hard to predict, as always, but it is certainly my assumption now that it is coming. I am cashing in investments and placing that cash in safe interest bearing accounts - hell even the interest rates are quite good, you can get around 5%! I could be totally wrong and miss out on some spectacular melt up, but even timing that is just as unpredictable as a crash, so I am going the cautious route.

[Sub]

I don't really buy into all this theory stuff if I'm honest. Common sense suggests that when both elections are done and rates start getting cut, the market will improve. Better still if some peace deal gets struck. Those on the bench, hold on there and keep the faith.

That is rather over-optimistic view. By itself sudden UK and French elections is quite bad sign as there is no obvious explanation, why for example Sunak would call an early election he most definitely will lose. Why not enjoy the power for 6 more months? One of possible explanations is consolidation of power by elites before extremely un-popular decisions that incoming governments will make, so there is no questioning of authority.

Radical raise of taxes? Return of conscription? Another mega-bailout for the banking? Starting proxy war with China over Taiwan?

Or maybe that is just coincidence and we all will be OK in 12 months or so.

[sreed]

That is rather over-optimistic view. By itself sudden UK and French elections is quite bad sign as there is no obvious explanation, why for example Sunak would call an early election he most definitely will lose. Why not enjoy the power for 6 more months? One of possible explanations is consolidation of power by elites before extremely un-popular decisions that incoming governments will make, so there is no questioning of authority.

Hang on. So Sunak called the election at short notice, did everything to lose it, all with the aim of winning Starmer a supermajority so that Starmer could then immediately enact 'extremely unpopular' decisions that both Sunak and Starmer want?!

[sreed]

That's between 46-50k a year salary as perm so they might simply be matching some perm budget, but they want to keep it a temp placement so via umbrella.

This is the likely explanation. Last time I was in the market (last summer) I'd applied for an NHS PM inside contract on PSR expecting it to pay in the 500-600pd range which was the going rate for most generalist PS PM roles in 2022-23. The consultant gave me a call to say that the rate was ~250pd remote and whether I'd still be interested. When I looked on the NHS website for the same kind of perm role it was an exact equivalent of the perm salary, they didn't even bother to adjust for the employer's NI that an inside contractor would be on the hook for!

I asked the consultant how they'd get someone decent for this rate and he said that they had plenty of interest because apparently there's lots of people who want to get a foot in at the NHS!

[Sub]

Hang on. So Sunak called the election at short notice, did everything to lose it, all with the aim of winning Starmer a supermajority so that Starmer could then immediately enact 'extremely unpopular' decisions that both Sunak and Starmer want?!

Tory are lame duck at the moment, they have lost quite a few seats in by-elections and just had disastrous local elections. If there is need to get some controversial policy through parliament, there must be enough disciplined minions who will vote for it - something that Labour seemingly will have after the 4th. This time Labour even not trying to pretend that their win will bring any significant changes to policies - it is literally just swap of colours on banners.

[Ketto]

I asked the consultant how they'd get someone decent for this rate and he said that they had plenty of interest because apparently there's lots of people who want to get a foot in at the NHS!

Started out in the NHS and spent a long time trying to get my feet out of it!