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Reply to: State of the Market
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Previously on "State of the Market"
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My take away from these employment graphs and employment figures generally is that things are ok employment-wise in the economy for now. There was no great need for the ECB to cut rates recently, and it was only a small cut. Not enough to make interest rates in the USA greatly more attractively and therefore to increase capital flows in that direction. Just pushes the expected rate cut out even further - won't happen till its too late anyway as always.
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Originally posted by WTFH View Post
The graph starts in May 2020, not "the start of 2020", and you previously claimed it showed "covid lows", now you are saying that the graph is showing "before covid hit". It doesn't show (in any measured sense) what the "pre-covid levels were" that you referred to.
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Originally posted by Fraidycat View Post
I guess, the idea is, like a lot of the public sector, the NHS is recession proof and doesn't do IT layoffs when there are slumps in the private sector.
Central government probably varies by department. Some have been ringfenced from cuts over the years leaving others to bear a disproportionate amount of cuts.
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Originally posted by Fraidycat View PostChart from US federal website, shows the number of Developer job postings is almost at covid lows, similar, maybe even worse to what we are seeing in the UK.
Also shows there was massive over hiring post covid compared to the hiring levels pre covid. Which is why subsequent layoffs were so large at the US tech companies and that hit us here in the UK as well. Last year the UK market was full of with people from the likes of Facebook and Google who had been laid off.
You can argue about the methodology, how they collect data, what they’re looking at etc, but according to that vacancy levels in I&C are no worse than they were at different times in 2016, 2017, 2019, and definitely well off the Covid lows in mid 2020.
There are definitely a LOT more highly-incentivised people competing for IT jobs in 2024 compared to the pre-Covid era but that’s a different story.
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Originally posted by Fraidycat View Post
It shows job US opening for developers in 2021 were more than double the level at the start of 2020, before Covid hit..
It may as well be a chart showing business confidence in US presidents, Biden gets voted in, business confidence improves, but now as it looks less likely that 45 will serve jail time and that many people are blinded by his word salads, so he might get another presidency, then business confidence is crumbling.
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Originally posted by Fraidycat View Post
I guess, the idea is, like a lot of the public sector, the NHS is recession proof and doesn't do IT layoffs when there are slumps in the private sector.Last edited by Ketto; Yesterday, 06:22.
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Originally posted by WTFH View Post
That chart has a Farage-esque level of fable about it.
It starts in 2020, but your comments talk about “pre Covid levels”
Do you think we are all as gullible as you? It’s like you’ve taken the worst of Scooter and combined it with the far-right to make false assertions.
Not sure what you point is, the Chart is from the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) website.
It shows job US opening for developers in 2021 were more than double the level at the start of 2020, before Covid hit.
This was a massive hiring bubble in the US Tech sector.
The bubble popped in mid 2022, and US tech giants then did big layoffs because they over hired so much in 2021, the UK was also caught in that cross fire last year.
A client told me about the high number of CVs they were getting from ex Facebook and Google employees here in the UK.Last edited by Fraidycat; Yesterday, 00:05.
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Originally posted by Fraidycat View PostChart from US federal website, shows the number of Developer job postings is almost at covid lows, similar, maybe even worse to what we are seeing in the UK.
Also shows there was massive over hiring post covid compared to the hiring levels pre covid. Which is why subsequent layoffs were so large at the US tech companies and that hit us here in the UK as well. Last year the UK market was full of with people from the likes of Facebook and Google who had been laid off.
It starts in 2020, but your comments talk about “pre Covid levels”
Do you think we are all as gullible as you? It’s like you’ve taken the worst of Scooter and combined it with the far-right to make false assertions.
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Chart from US federal website, shows the number of Developer job postings is almost at covid lows, similar, maybe even worse to what we are seeing in the UK.
Also shows there was massive over hiring post covid compared to the hiring levels pre covid. Which is why subsequent layoffs were so large at the US tech companies and that hit us here in the UK as well. Last year the UK market was full of with people from the likes of Facebook and Google who had been laid off.
Last edited by Fraidycat; 30 June 2024, 13:51.
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Originally posted by Ketto View Post
Started out in the NHS and spent a long time trying to get my feet out of it!
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Originally posted by sreed View Post
I asked the consultant how they'd get someone decent for this rate and he said that they had plenty of interest because apparently there's lots of people who want to get a foot in at the NHS!
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Originally posted by sreed View Post
Hang on. So Sunak called the election at short notice, did everything to lose it, all with the aim of winning Starmer a supermajority so that Starmer could then immediately enact 'extremely unpopular' decisions that both Sunak and Starmer want?!
Tory are lame duck at the moment, they have lost quite a few seats in by-elections and just had disastrous local elections. If there is need to get some controversial policy through parliament, there must be enough disciplined minions who will vote for it - something that Labour seemingly will have after the 4th. This time Labour even not trying to pretend that their win will bring any significant changes to policies - it is literally just swap of colours on banners.
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Originally posted by dsc View Post
That's between 46-50k a year salary as perm so they might simply be matching some perm budget, but they want to keep it a temp placement so via umbrella.
I asked the consultant how they'd get someone decent for this rate and he said that they had plenty of interest because apparently there's lots of people who want to get a foot in at the NHS!
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Originally posted by Sub View Post
That is rather over-optimistic view. By itself sudden UK and French elections is quite bad sign as there is no obvious explanation, why for example Sunak would call an early election he most definitely will lose. Why not enjoy the power for 6 more months? One of possible explanations is consolidation of power by elites before extremely un-popular decisions that incoming governments will make, so there is no questioning of authority.
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Originally posted by oliverson View Post
I don't really buy into all this theory stuff if I'm honest. Common sense suggests that when both elections are done and rates start getting cut, the market will improve. Better still if some peace deal gets struck. Those on the bench, hold on there and keep the faith.
Radical raise of taxes? Return of conscription? Another mega-bailout for the banking? Starting proxy war with China over Taiwan?
Or maybe that is just coincidence and we all will be OK in 12 months or so.
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