Theresa May's speech today

[BlasterBates]

Bottom line, either the EU27 are going to accept some "raisin" picking or we're going to get an extreme outcome.

Indeed of course there will be cherry picking, as there is between Switzerland and the EU.

I think the EU sceptics in the UK cabinet will claim their FTA as a huge success.

In short the compromise will reflect the relative strengths of the EU and the UK so it will be 0.1 * UK's position + 0.9 * EU's position.

[darmstadt]

Don't forget Brown & May;

Just as Gordon Brown had five “tests” for joining the Euro, which were so loose that he could interpret them any way he liked, Theresa May has five tests for an acceptable Brexit outcome, which will mean different things to different people. In fact they sounded more like the introduction to an election manifesto, than a prism through which to measure the success of a negotiation on some of the most technical and specialist of legal topics.

FTFY

[jamesbrown]

In short the compromise will reflect the relative strengths of the EU and the UK so it will be 0.1 * UK's position + 0.9 * EU's position.

Leaving the SM, CU and ECJ plus 0.1% of the other faff sounds like a good outcome to me. A moderately soft, hard Brexit. Perfect!

The next phase is going to be amusing though. The Commission hasn't had to cope with much dissent yet. Poor old Jean-Claude is going to be on the glug soon.

[BlasterBates]

Leaving the SM, CU and ECJ plus 0.1% of the other faff sounds like a good outcome to me. A moderately soft, hard Brexit. Perfect!

The next phase is going to be amusing though. The Commission hasn't had to cope with much dissent yet. Poor old Jean-Claude is going to be on the glug soon.

Switzerland isn't in the "Single Market" or Customs Union nor does it answer to the ECJ, it simply has a bunch of FTAs.

[jamesbrown]

Switzerland isn't in the "Single Market" or Customs Union nor does it answer to the ECJ, it simply has a bunch of FTAs.

I believe this is what the EU calls "magical thinking"

[BlasterBates]

I believe this is what the EU calls "magical thinking"

Indeed, but not after the government has made it's "hard choices".

"Hard choices" will be the mantra between now and March 2019. and somehow I think the EU won't be making "hard choices".

...but it should be easy if the wool is pulled down far enough.

[WTFH]

2016: TM & the Brexit camp don't know what they want, so they just say "It's time to start negotiating", and rely on the Brexit supporters to blame the EU, blame anyone who disagrees with them, etc
2017: TM & the Brexit camp don't know what they want, so they just say "It's time to start negotiating", and rely on the Brexit supporters to blame the EU, blame anyone who disagrees with them, etc
2018: TM & the Brexit camp don't know what they want, so they just say "It's time to start negotiating", and rely on the Brexit supporters to blame the EU, blame anyone who disagrees with them, etc
2019: Too late to start negotiating, best blame the EU.

The intelligent people who supported Brexit must be out there somewhere and must be furious about the lack of progress and lack of direction, but their voices aren't being heard over the loudmouths who are clueless.

[jamesbrown]

Indeed, but not after the government has made it's "hard choices".

"Hard choices" will be the mantra between now and March 2019. and somehow I think the EU won't be making "hard choices".

...but it should be easy if the wool is pulled down far enough.

Indeed, it's pulled down so far, you'll begin to confuse yourself with a sheep

[BlasterBates]

EU ready to offer UK trade deal THIS WEEK – but Brexiteers will HATE it

Eyes bulging at the Daily Express editorial offices.

[Bean]

2016: TM & the Brexit camp don't know what they want, so they just say "It's time to start negotiating", and rely on the Brexit supporters to blame the EU, blame anyone who disagrees with them, etc
2017: TM & the Brexit camp don't know what they want, so they just say "It's time to start negotiating", and rely on the Brexit supporters to blame the EU, blame anyone who disagrees with them, etc
2018: TM & the Brexit camp don't know what they want, so they just say "It's time to start negotiating", and rely on the Brexit supporters to blame the EU, blame anyone who disagrees with them, etc
2019: Too late to start negotiating, best blame the EU.

The intelligent people who supported Brexit must be out there somewhere and must be furious about the lack of progress and lack of direction, but their voices aren't being heard over the loudmouths who are clueless.

No remaining in the SM
Want (& will pay for some) access to SM
No remaining in the CU
Any new union to be negotiated vis-a-vis
No Hard border between RoI/NI
Control of our borders (No more FoM in current form)
Reciprocal continuity of expat communities rights
Able to create Trade Agreements of our own
No jurisdiction of ECJ after Transition (except for expat rights & FTAs)


The intelligent people who opposed Brexit must be out there somewhere and must be able to grasp at least some things have been voiced from the UK side, but their voices aren't being heard over the loudmouths who are clueless and tend to repeat themselves.