Brexit Betrayal

[BlasterBates]

The ramifications for the "betrayal" are now becoming clear.

Trade talks to take years as UK is shoved into a transition from which it never exits

Of course this will be opposed by the Brexiteers:

Jacob Rees-Mogg furious at the proposed Brexit deal

However the "meaningful vote" in parliament is now a huge obstacle to crashing out as the majority of MPs would opt for the "UK as a EU colony"



The only question is whether the Tory government will survive this one. What the government doesn't have is a majority to crash out with no deal, which is the only alternative.

[jamesbrown]

As usual, your analysis is wide of the mark, BB, because you can’t separate your personal preferences from the realistic chances of different outcomes This should be obvious from your sources alone (invariably the Express or Indy), the two most extreme sources of Brexit nonsense.

In what universe will the Tories accept having exited the EU in name only leading up to the next GE? None. Also, as a point of detail, you appear to have wildly misinterpreted the scope of Ammendment 7 to the Withdrawal Bill, which conveys no power on Parliament to modify the scope or content of any eventual agreement; it simply changes the timing of when preparations can begin.

Base case: transition that ends with the next MFF and the eventual trade deal is, essentially, CETA, plus cooperation in aviation, security etc. Likelihood: moderate to high.

Best case: implementation period formally ends with the next MFF. Eventual trade deal is CETA with some bolt ons for services, plus cooperation in aviation, security etc. Some aspects of the new deal are implemented early. This will be HMGs preferred end state, I predict (we’ll know by mid-Jan). Likelihood: low.

Worst case: WTO, but probably still with cooperation on aviation, security etc. Likelihood: moderate to high.

Even if the Tories deliver Brexit on time, there’s a good chance that Corbyn will win next time around. That’s the most realistic chance for foaming-at-the-mouth Brextremists to dramatically dilute Brexit, so you better get ready to suck it up and vote Red.

[BlasterBates]

As usual, your analysis is wide of the mark, BB, because you can’t separate your personal preferences from the realistic chances of different outcomes This should be obvious from your sources alone (invariably the Express or Indy), the two most extreme sources of Brexit nonsense.

In what universe will the Tories accept having exited the EU in name only leading up to the next GE? None. Also, as a point of detail, you appear to have wildly misinterpreted the scope of Ammendment 7 to the Withdrawal Bill, which conveys no power on Parliament to modify the scope or content of any eventual agreement; it simply changes the timing of when preparations can begin.

Base case: transition that ends with the next MFF and the eventual trade deal is, essentially, CETA, plus cooperation in aviation, security etc. Likelihood: moderate to high.

Best case: implementation period formally ends with the next MFF. Eventual trade deal is CETA with some bolt ons for services, plus cooperation in aviation, security etc. Some aspects of the new deal are implemented early. This will be HMGs preferred end state, I predict (we’ll know by mid-Jan). Likelihood: low.

Worst case: WTO, but probably still with cooperation on aviation, security etc. Likelihood: moderate to high.

Even if the Tories deliver Brexit on time, there’s a good chance that Corbyn will win next time around. That’s the most realistic chance for foaming-at-the-mouth Brextremists to dramatically dilute Brexit, so you better get ready to suck it up and vote Red.

One senses a certain frustration amongst Brexiteers, still clinging to the notion of a Hard Brexit after the botched GE this year. That GE was the Hard Brexit ticket and it was rejected. Hard Brexiteers need to move on and accept it. ,

[northernladyuk]

One senses a certain frustration amongst Brexiteers, still clinging to the notion of a Hard Brexit after the botched GE this year. That GE was the Hard Brexit ticket and it was rejected. Hard Brexiteers need to move on and accept it. ,

Jacob Rees Mogg has a sense of entitlement befitting the scion of a coal mine owning family. He and his ilk won't easily let slip a once in a generation opportunity to grind the middle and working classes into the dirt.

[Paddy]

We can always rely on the Americans.

Oh, hang on Trump threatens to tear up the trade deals with Mexico and Canada ....

[jamesbrown]

One senses a certain frustration amongst Brexiteers, still clinging to the notion of a Hard Brexit after the botched GE this year. That GE was the Hard Brexit ticket and it was rejected. Hard Brexiteers need to move on and accept it. ,

I sense your frustration. Of course, it’s not difficult to sense, given that 99% of your posts are in the Brexit forum You’re still grieving, but you’re going to have to accept the inevitable compromise. I’d rather remain in the EU than opt for Norway or Switzerland, which is less extreme than your position, I think (hope for the worst, then ignore the referendum). I’d be happy to wait for the next election; three years is adequate to negotiate a CETA-style deal, which is neither hard nor soft (given that lead time).

[BlasterBates]

I sense your frustration. Of course, it’s not difficult to sense, given that 99% of your posts are in the Brexit forum You’re still grieving, but you’re going to have to accept the inevitable compromise. I’d rather remain in the EU than opt for Norway or Switzerland, which is less extreme than your position, I think (hope for the worst, then ignore the referendum). I’d be happy to wait for the next election; three years is adequate to negotiate a CETA-style deal, which is neither hard nor soft (given that lead time).

Quite the contrary I was very relaxed about the referendum knowing it won't make a lot of difference one way or the other. It is abundantly clear that one way or another the UK will be bounced into a Swiss/Norway style deal.

'Not where I want to finish up!' Farage says UK is heading towards Brexit-lite deal

The outspoken Brexiteer claimed Theresa May will likely guide the UK “towards a Norway-type situation” if she takes goes ahead with the Brexit divorce negotiations as planned.

[chopper]

'Not where I want to finish up!' Farage says UK is heading towards Brexit-lite deal

But it's not about what Farage wants, fortunately. He's not even an MP. His influence should indeed be minor, but has unfortunately been disproportionately large to date.

[WTFH]

But it's not about what Farage wants, fortunately. He's not even an MP. His influence should indeed be minor, but has unfortunately been disproportionately large to date.

Are you saying that some unelected person is trying to demand how Britain should be run?

[jamesbrown]

Quite the contrary I was very relaxed about the referendum knowing it won't make a lot of difference one way or the other. It is abundantly clear that one way or another the UK will be bounced into a Swiss/Norway style deal.

Relaxed. Right.

For all May’s faults, she’s fairly straightforward. Reread Lancaster House and Florence carefully. It’s been clear for a long time that she and the EU are both heading for a bottom-up (CETA-style) deal. DD explicitly called for it on Marr last week.

FWIW, James Forsyth of the Sun/Spectator is about the best for inside info. on current Cabinet thinking, and the direction of travel has been clear for a while. Gavin Williamson has joined the divergers, along with the usual suspects. That’s a majority of the inner Cabinet. Even Hammond is reportedly willing to accept some divergence, inconsistent with EEA/EFTA (he alluded to this in the Autumn Budget).

My only quibble is that they aren’t likely to get much more than CETA fullstop, but especially before late 2021, which is the realistic deadline for our actual departure. The real question is whether the Tories can hold together come March 2019, when there’s little more than a political commitment to CETA on offer. It’s also quite likely that the EU will overplay it’s hand and want that agreement to come with a greater commitment to alignment than CETA, which is quite likely to split the Tories and produce a messy exit. This will come under the guise that negotiating the mechanism for divergence is too complex within the time available. Forget about the current goodwill, WTO remains a likely outcome from all this (which I’m not advocating, incidentally).