[Merged]Brexit stuff (part 2)

[jamesbrown]

Of course it will be overturned by parliament, the vast majority of MPs support remain, they will vote remain, Article 50 will not be triggered. It's plain as day.

It's going to be interesting to see how May plays it. The scope of the judgement is very broad, so I think it will be overturned or curtailed in the Supreme Court. It's completely unclear what is meant by parliamentary approval in this context, but it seems that a motion would not be adequate. Whether it requires an Act through both houses is debatable. Also, it's completely unclear what minimum requirement there might be on the contents of that Act. For example:

Implementing the Resolution of the People Act:

We hereby consent to give notice under Article 50 etc.

END

A simple no-frills Act would easily pass, and the gov't can reject amendments. There isn't a chance in hell of a Commons (or even Lords) majority against a simple Act. If the Lords do create a fuss, they can be circumvented, albeit with some delay.

So, where it gets interesting is in the contents of the Act. What should it say about the negotiating demands? That's where May now has a headache, and she'd be well advised to keep the Act very simple indeed. That said, I think the Supreme Court will overturn or reduce the scope of the judgement. I'm more certain about that than I was about the outcome today, which was fairly finely balanced (and the gov't did not present a good case TBH). In other words, May will probably wait until 7 December, but start drafting a simple Act now.

Bottom line, there's no way that Brexit is getting stopped, even if it means a GE (a GE doesn't circumvent the judgement today, but it does completely change the composition of the Commons and it does impose a manifesto commitment on the Lords).

[BlasterBates]

I think one can safely say that today "Hard Brexit" on it's last legs anyway after "the letter to Nissan" finally died.

[BlasterBates]

A comment in the Guardian from a gen snowflaker:



The margin of the Brexit victory was so small and the bulk of Leave voters were so old that a lot of them have died since the vote meaning that remain would probably now win should it be held again.

Speaking of which, I thought one "snowflake" comment was quite pertinent pointing out if immigrants are "stealing jobs" now that Eastern Europeans are staying away, why is there a shortage of workers ?

[vetran]

Who is sulking?

We'll get there. You stick to polishing your spuds.

you sure they are spuds?

[jamesbrown]

I think one can safely say that today "Hard Brexit" on it's last legs anyway after "the letter to Nissan" finally died.

Well, soft brexit definitely isn't on the cards, just ask Donald Tusk. Hard brexit or no Brexit. Hard brexit it is.

[vetran]

Speaking of which, I thought one "snowflake" comment was quite pertinent pointing out if immigrants are "stealing jobs" now that Eastern Europeans are staying away, when are the wages rising?

FTFY

Don't forget the next phase of operation benefit cap went into force this week.

[GB9]

you sure they are spuds?

He's definitely polishing something.

[vetran]

A comment in the Guardian from a gen snowflaker:



The margin of the Brexit victory was so small and the bulk of Leave voters were so old that a lot of them have died since the vote meaning that remain would probably now win should it be held again.

damn if I had a £1 for each voter in the margin I could retire.

Nice to see ageist abuse from bremainers makes a change from racism & incompetence.

[BlasterBates]

Well, soft brexit definitely isn't on the cards, just ask Donald Tusk. Hard brexit or no Brexit. Hard brexit it is.

So you don't think the UK government is going to cave in to the EU's demands ?

I think they are.

[GB9]

Is it true that one of the judges formed the EU Integration Group?

Having looked at the detail I don't think the Remnants should crow too much.