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    Originally posted by BrilloPad View Post
    RBS cries 'sell everything' as deflationary crisis nears

    .
    Then, after everyone has sold everything at a loss, RBS will grab some printed BoE money and buy it all up at bargain prices!

    Sell, sell, sell people!

    Comment


      Originally posted by BlasterBates View Post
      Oil and other commodities will come back. The greater the fall the faster and higher the recovery will be.

      The thing that creates boom and bust in commodities is the lead time on investments.

      Basically all new mining and oil exploration projects have now been binned, that's only happened in the last 6 months.

      Glencore is a good buy because of it's position in Copper, so I'm still in there

      Copper will recover the fastest. High quality copper is a lot scarcer than ire ore or coal.

      Recovery in late 2016 and early 2017 or a year or two later if we slide into a world recession.

      I prefer to invest in materials that are a byproduct of other mining operations, making them more valuable than diamonds when certain operations close down.
      "Never argue with stupid people, they will drag you down to their level and beat you with experience". Mark Twain

      Comment


        Originally posted by DimPrawn View Post
        Then, after everyone has sold everything at a loss, RBS will grab some printed BoE money and buy it all up at bargain prices!

        Sell, sell, sell people!

        Fire up the helicopters....

        Comment


          Certainly looks like there will be some mega buying opportunities in 2016.

          Things will be going down.

          I particularly like the oil price
          I'm alright Jack

          Comment


            Oil price is causing me a headache as I hold both BP and RDSB, although they key is to derisfy which is why MRW and TSCO are my two biggest risers of the day
            Originally posted by Stevie Wonder Boy
            I can't see any way to do it can you please advise?

            I want my account deleted and all of my information removed, I want to invoke my right to be forgotten.

            Comment


              Originally posted by SimonMac View Post
              Oil price is causing me a headache as I hold both BP and RDSB, although they key is to derisfy which is why MRW and TSCO are my two biggest risers of the day
              Yes but the low oil price will eradicate investment, which means there will be a huge bounce
              I'm alright Jack

              Comment


                Originally posted by BlasterBates View Post
                Yes but the low oil price will eradicate investment, which means there will be a huge bounce
                If it gets into the 20s, indeed, there will be a swift and extensive collapse in US shale production, which will result in a bounce in the oil price. The same would apply if the new Iranian production is delayed for whatever reason (a fair chance, I think). However, if it bounces a lot, the US shale production can come back online pretty quickly, as we're talking about an aggregate of very small producers. For the same reason, I can't see oil making a sustained recovery; US shale is a game changer. Definitely some trading opportunities though. However, in terms of the overall equity markets, I think the pullback has barely started. There's a general malaise that needs testing to lows far below here.

                Comment


                  Originally posted by jamesbrown View Post
                  If it gets into the 20s, indeed, there will be a swift and extensive collapse in US shale production, which will result in a bounce in the oil price. The same would apply if the new Iranian production is delayed for whatever reason (a fair chance, I think). However, if it bounces a lot, the US shale production can come back online pretty quickly, as we're talking about an aggregate of very small producers. For the same reason, I can't see oil making a sustained recovery; US shale is a game changer. Definitely some trading opportunities though. However, in terms of the overall equity markets, I think the pullback has barely started. There's a general malaise that needs testing to lows far below here.
                  Shale oil is more expensive to produce than conventional oil, and is only profitable above $80 a barrel.

                  Shale oil has the potential to control the oil price if it remains above $80 but not below, investors won't be rushing to expand shale oil production below that.

                  Sure we probably won't see $120 a barrel but basic economics will shove the price at least up to $80,as you need Shale oil to match global consumption. At the moment Shale oil producers are maxing out production but every oil field has a natural decline which requires continuous new investment and a $30 dollar price means even the Saudi's will be slashing investment, and they have the cheapest oil.

                  Globally investment will be slashed at current prices, and if prices rise to say $50 it won't be enough to spark new investment in Shale.

                  Anyway we will see
                  Last edited by BlasterBates; 12 January 2016, 12:37.
                  I'm alright Jack

                  Comment


                    Oil caused Global Warming.

                    Isn't it time it was made illegal?

                    Comment


                      Originally posted by BlasterBates View Post
                      Shale oil is more expensive to produce than conventional oil, and is only profitable above $80 a barrel.

                      Shale oil has the potential to control the oil price if it remains above $80 but not below, investors won't be rushing to expand shale oil production below that.

                      Sure we probably won't see $120 a barrel but basic economics will shove the price at least up to $80,as you need Shale oil to match global consumption. At the moment Shale oil producers are maxing out production but every oil field has a natural decline which requires continuous new investment and a $30 dollar price means even the Saudi's will be slashing investment, and they have the cheapest oil.

                      Globally investment will be slashed at current prices, and if prices rise to say $50 it won't be enough to spark new investment in Shale.
                      It's more complicated than that. The cost of shale production varies dramatically across the US, depending on the formation, and production costs have become dramatically lower with improved productivity and reductions in associated services costs. In other words, that $80 figure is simply not representative. There are many US counties where the cost of production is in the $10-20 per barrel range. Also, there's a big difference between sustaining existing production and authorizing new production, in terms of cost, and this is why production has been resilient in the face of price declines. The first thing to go is the authorization of new production, of course. However, existing wells continue to sustain a high level of production (albeit for a more limited period than conventional production, because the reserves are more concentrated). The high-cost producers have been going under for some time. Bottom line, shale is here to stay, but the ~$20-30 range is where a large number of small producers will start to go tits-up (and possibly some regional banks too). I agree that there will be a spike, but it won't be to $80 without some serious changes in supply/demand elsewhere.

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