A Sad “IR35” Day

[Snooky]

3. If you are willing to accept brolly or perm roles, come Feb a bunch of clients like Barclays, etc, are going to be frantically trying to replace a bunch of people who just walked. There's going to be a lot of upheaval but there will certainly be roles available.

4. My guess is by the summer there are going to be outside roles starting to pop up again because clients will need people.

Not sure I entirely agree with this view.

People all still need to pay their mortgages, feed their families etc. Contractors are very unlikely to walk out on principle without anything to move on to. There will be nothing to move on to because the forecast glut of unfilled roles relies on lots of contractors leaving their current clients but I really don't see that happening en masse, because nobody in their right mind with bills to pay will give up paid work without something else lined up. So it's a vicious circle: people won't leave because there are very few roles, large numbers of roles won't become available because people aren't leaving.

Sorry to sound negative, I'd be very happy to be proved wrong.

[Amanensia]

nobody in their right mind with bills to pay will give up paid work without something else lined up

If you spot my mind, please send it on home, I miss it...

[oliverson]

Not sure I entirely agree with this view.

People all still need to pay their mortgages, feed their families etc. Contractors are very unlikely to walk out on principle without anything to move on to. There will be nothing to move on to because the forecast glut of unfilled roles relies on lots of contractors leaving their current clients but I really don't see that happening en masse, because nobody in their right mind with bills to pay will give up paid work without something else lined up. So it's a vicious circle: people won't leave because there are very few roles, large numbers of roles won't become available because people aren't leaving.

Sorry to sound negative, I'd be very happy to be proved wrong.

Very wrong. I for one won't put up with it. If the clients and agents think they can squeeze me from a consultant to doing a permie job earning a fraction of the income then it is they who are not in their right minds. There's a world outside the UK you know? That's £ 60k of tax per annum plus 'investment' in the economy lost.

[Paralytic]

Very wrong. I for one won't put up with it. If the clients and agents think they can squeeze me from a consultant to doing a permie job earning a fraction of the income then it is they who are not in their right minds. There's a world outside the UK you know? That's £ 60k of tax per annum plus 'investment' in the economy lost.

Its all very good you sticking to your guns and saying that, but many others will be doing the same and there's only so many jobs in that world outside the UK.

The taxman doesn't care about the loss of tax from any one individual - its the numbers game for them.

[oliverson]

Its all very good you sticking to your guns and saying that, but many others will be doing the same and there's only so many jobs in that world outside the UK.

The taxman doesn't care about the loss of tax from any one individual - its the numbers game for them.

Most of my contractor pals will be doing the same. Multiply that £ 60k by a few thousand and it starts to make a difference.

I know of no proper established contractor that would be forced into a permie role.

[Paralytic]

Most of my contractor pals will be doing the same. Multiply that £ 60k by a few thousand and it starts to make a difference.

I know of no proper established contractor that would be forced into a permie role.

Can I change that to "most of my contractor pals want to do the same". Its not a buyers market just now and there's no sign that will change prior to next April.

But even if they do, I'm sure HMRC believe the amount of tax lost through people who go elsewhere will be easily swamped by the increase in tax revenues from those that go umbrella/perm.

[BR14]

Most of my contractor pals will be doing the same. Multiply that £ 60k by a few thousand and it starts to make a difference.

I know of no proper established contractor that would be forced into a permie role.

[ChimpMaster]

Most of my contractor pals will be doing the same. Multiply that £ 60k by a few thousand and it starts to make a difference.

I know of no proper established contractor that would be forced into a permie role.

I am planning to do the same too - there is no point working under constant stress and attack from our own government. Their policies have fried my brain.

it beggars belief that the government can't see the huge drop in tax revenue that will hit next year. Then again, they did this with Stamp Duty and tinkered heavily with the property market, and are now seeing that tax take drop significantly.

Everyone knows that HMRC are, frankly, stupid, and couldn't put together a coherent and consistent policy to save their lives.

[Newbie1]

I will finish my current contract in Jan, take a beach break, then look for a new contract in the EU in March with my shiny, new EU passport.

No way will I go permie or have my balls squeezed in UK umbrella. Would rather have them squeezed in EU umbrella but with higher rate (rates are higher in EU in my area). I will rent out my house.

Thanks CONservatives - it's the sort of thing you expect from Labour or Lib Dems...

[WordIsBond]

I'll be foreign clients only. UK clients can wait. Once GSK showed that HMRC is being given lists of contractors I said forget it.

But it's not the guys who will work with overseas clients that will change things. Nor will there be enough guys who say 'forget it' and take a six month break.

The reason there will eventually be some return to sanity is Brexit or something like it. Clients will suddenly find themselves needing projects done, quickly. They won't have the permie staff. And it will be at a time when other people need stuff done, too. If you drive people out of the contracting business then there will be a shift in the supply/demand dynamic, and then something will juice demand.

When that happens, there won't be enough contractors, and to get their supply when demand is high, clients will either have to pay more, or structure things so they can offer outside roles.

Maybe it won't be by summer, but it will come.