Reply to: Latest terrifying Covid variant can be confused with a cold!!

[NotAllThere]

Talking of variants - anyone seen the Loki series on Disney Plus. A cross between Dr Who, Wandavision and Hitchhikers.

[cojak]

And we haven’t even mentioned the Vietnam variant yet…

[NotAllThere]

Spanish Flu was a variant of an earlier virus and killed millions. Mutation does not equal no problem.

[agentzero]

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-57467051

It is actually normal for viruses to weaken overtime due to mutations, the variants that are weaker have an advantage for replication, a variant that killed you immediately would not get very far.

So I am getting pretty sick of the press creating fear with talk of double mutants etc. (this is the so called quality press, not the Sun just that is taking this fear based approach)

The premise of your post is incorrect. Admit it: you read the phrase "it is actually normal for viruses to weaken overtime (sic) due to mutations".

Viruses do not necessarily 'weaken' over time. There are numerous variants of each virus - not the same as 'mutations', a word you throw around while having little knowledge of what it even means. Does the word 'weaken' sound like the word the medical establishment and research scientists would use in relation to a virus? No, because it's a meaningless word in the context of virus variants. They all behave slightly differently in humans and this process is complex.

You have, quite literally, witnessed the original sars-cov-2 variant morph into the alpha variant, morph into the delta variant. Yes, numerous other variants exist simultaneously, but the aforementioned variants are more contagious AND more severe in effect for a notable amount of the infected.

If we count numerous variants then some will be less dangerous, some more dangerous. Edinburgh university have highlighted that the recent sars-cov-2 variant first discovered in India, now referred to as the 'delta' variant, leads to twice the hospitalisations of the previous variant now known as 'alpha'.

Where you get your junk information from is your own issue, but it's 2021 and you have to accept that you've got it wrong I'm afraid and rely on scientific advancement in this area.

TL,DR: Viruses do not necessarily 'weaken over time' and this is an urbam myth that has been perpetuated by specific newspapers. No prizes for guessing which two.

Edit: Surely only a troll OP would post this rubbish? Are people REALLY this thick to just repeat drivel they have heard a few times on some TalkRadio show?

[NotAllThere]

A virus or bacteria that takes a few days for symptoms to start, and is very infectious from the beginning, and kills, will spread very effectively. Such as the Bubonic Plague. Wiped out a huge proportion of the world, and they didn't even have air travel.

However, if you're wearing a tin foil hat, it's all fake news.

[d000hg]

The fun of a novel virus.

Oh and I know a couple of people who have had Covid twice. There as you can't have measles twice.......

I was meaning generally, I wonder what R0 calculations involve in terms of modeled scenarios and behaviour.

[SueEllen]

I don't think even Delta is close to measles in terms of R0 - measles is just something else - but it makes sense as both are super-infectious with low but non-negligible rates of serious medical outcomes.

I was wondering how R0 takes into account the average number of people you actually come into contact with. For instance measles has R0 of ~15 and is contagious about a week but even pre-Covid, I'm not sure I come into direct contact with 15 people. The number of people we have contact with must vary quite a bit between different countries/cultures. Measles is contagious before and after you are obviously symptomatic so I wonder if R0 is based on how many people on average would isolate once they get a rash, or assumes normal patterns of life.
Just rambling, anyone know in any depth?

The fun of a novel virus.

Oh and I know a couple of people who have had Covid twice. There as you can't have measles twice.......

[d000hg]

Yeah, only 1% will die, and maybe 5-10% get Long Covid, and the rest will be paying extra health taxes to take of them, nothing to see here, move along.

Why do you insist on arguing with points people aren't making?

[d000hg]

I heard yesterday from some infectious disease boffin that we should compare the infectiousness of covid to measles.

This means in populations that have immunity it won't cause lots of harm to most people, but in populations with no immunity it will cause devastation.

I don't think even Delta is close to measles in terms of R0 - measles is just something else - but it makes sense as both are super-infectious with low but non-negligible rates of serious medical outcomes.

I was wondering how R0 takes into account the average number of people you actually come into contact with. For instance measles has R0 of ~15 and is contagious about a week but even pre-Covid, I'm not sure I come into direct contact with 15 people. The number of people we have contact with must vary quite a bit between different countries/cultures. Measles is contagious before and after you are obviously symptomatic so I wonder if R0 is based on how many people on average would isolate once they get a rash, or assumes normal patterns of life.
Just rambling, anyone know in any depth?

[NigelJK]

No-one knows as they aren't sure on long-term immunity.

That is then also true of the Vaccine then, as they are the same antibodies.

Back to the question then.

Given the Media attention to the 'shock horror' R figure, surely we have a accurate picture of how many have been infected?

[AtW]

Yeah, only 1% will die, and maybe 5-10% get Long Covid, and the rest will be paying extra health taxes to take of them, nothing to see here, move along.

[SueEllen]

1. Having cold symptoms doesn't imply it's weaker, it implies it has new symptoms
2. The delta variant and others have shown to be at least dangerous, if not more in some cases, than Covid 1.0, as well as much more transmissible
3. The "viruses only ever get weaker to survive" argument is not actually that factual, I was reading something about this common view last week. It takes only a little bit of critical thinking to realise that in the case of Covid, it doesn't make that much sense - by the time you get to the point of being seriously ill, you have already infected everyone. I'm not sure there's any evidence other super-transmissible diseases like mumps or measles have got weaker over the decades either. Remember that Covid has a baseline mortality rate of ~1% ish so it is never going to kill everyone anyway

This "fear based approach" is directly reported by the various medical groups - they are the ones pushing for continued restrictions and urging caution.

I heard yesterday from some infectious disease boffin that we should compare the infectiousness of covid to measles.

This means in populations that have immunity it won't cause lots of harm to most people, but in populations with no immunity it will cause devastation.

[d000hg]

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-57467051

It is actually normal for viruses to weaken overtime due to mutations, the variants that are weaker have an advantage for replication, a variant that killed you immediately would not get very far.

So I am getting pretty sick of the press creating fear with talk of double mutants etc. (this is the so called quality press, not the Sun just that is taking this fear based approach)

1. Having cold symptoms doesn't imply it's weaker, it implies it has new symptoms
2. The delta variant and others have shown to be at least dangerous, if not more in some cases, than Covid 1.0, as well as much more transmissible
3. The "viruses only ever get weaker to survive" argument is not actually that factual, I was reading something about this common view last week. It takes only a little bit of critical thinking to realise that in the case of Covid, it doesn't make that much sense - by the time you get to the point of being seriously ill, you have already infected everyone. I'm not sure there's any evidence other super-transmissible diseases like mumps or measles have got weaker over the decades either. Remember that Covid has a baseline mortality rate of ~1% ish so it is never going to kill everyone anyway

This "fear based approach" is directly reported by the various medical groups - they are the ones pushing for continued restrictions and urging caution.

[SueEllen]

And the figure for those with immunity due to having had the virus?

No-one knows as they aren't sure on long-term immunity.

Guess we will find out in 10 years...........

[NigelJK]

And the figure for those with immunity due to having had the virus?