To V or not to V

[minestrone]

Nobody knows, we have been running this economy on the equation of exchange for 40 years and money velocity and production are clearly screwed. But...

"there is no basis in economic theory or supporting evidence for the Government's belief that by deflating demand they will bring inflation permanently under control"







Tells me roasters with opinions are usually wrong.

[jamesbrown]

So are we boomed or doomed? Where's the executive/cretin friendly summary?

Stocks are mostly boomed for the next few months, housing and housing stocks are mostly doomed in the next 6-9 months.

[DimPrawn]

So are we boomed or doomed? Where's the executive/cretin friendly summary?

[jamesbrown]

I called it on March 23rd

https://www.contractoruk.com/forums/...ml#post2747951

Good call in hindsight; that is when it flipped. I'm also long now, absent any evidence of a second wave (i.e., at least until later this year). The stock markets have been divorced from the real economy for ~10 years and that isn't going to change soon.

Make no mistake, the real economy is in a world of pain. Since housing is more sensitive to the real economy, even with cheap money, I am more bearish on that. It's also worth remembering that the UK stock markets are still 25% down on their recent peak, so the recovery has been much shallower than the tech-heavy US, so far. It's difficult to see housing going anywhere but down, but it probably won't be clear until the autumn when price discovery has occurred and the gov't schemes have properly ended (noting the 45 day redundancy notification period).

[ladymuck]

I called it on March 23rd

https://www.contractoruk.com/forums/...ml#post2747951

Not exactly. You shared a link and gave very little interpretation or comment with it. Technically, the person who wrote the article has the 'scoop'.

[ChimpMaster]

I called it on March 23rd

https://www.contractoruk.com/forums/...ml#post2747951

[DealorNoDeal]

Even if social distancing doesn't impact businesses too much, the other big unknown is...

Will people go back to normal levels of spending any time soon?

[ladymuck]

I thought they said a slightly lopsided V, which sounded more tick-shaped to me (not the bity critter, obvs)

[xoggoth]

Lady MUCK wants a clean thread? - What thread was that?

[elsergiovolador]

There is going to be \ shaped misery.

[DealorNoDeal]

V was only ever a vishful dream by the powers at be.

How many of the 8.5 million furloughed will end up unemployed when the scheme is curtailed?

How many businesses are not viable with social distancing?

It's hard to see how this is not going to be far worse than 2008. The early 1930s looks like a more realistic parallel.

[Whorty]

Aw! You're too kind! Thank you.

[ladymuck]

Aw! You're too kind! Thank you.

[Whorty]

But yeah, Poops called the not V shaped recovery this week, before most other people did a month ago

[Whorty]

New thread to keep LM's thread clean

As posted by the class idiot .....

Update your search results for a month before, not the present day, yah numpty. You asked the average joe just as recently as a month ago, they were all bull. Not me. I called it


The market’s post-pandemic recovery could look a lot like 2008-09, van Eck says


The V-Shaped Market Recovery Playing Out Perfectly

..... to support this .....

Cobblers.

Everyone is talking about a V shaped recovery.

So ... Poops claims everyone is talking about a V shaped recovery he then supports this argument by posting to probably the only two threads he can find that are both 6 weeks old. There are presumably no recent links he can use because, contrary to his initial statement, everyone isn't talking about a V shaped recovery.

Oh, and links I added were also dated mostly a month ago, and they also were not talking about a V shaped recovery.

Cobblers.

You say everyone is, but a quick Google proves, once again, that you like to spout rubbish and hope no one checks the facts.

These are all from the 1st page in Google. You really do make up a lot of tulip.

L shaped (with a bit of U)
What will economic recovery look like? Here's what to expect | AZ Big Media

Nope, LSE don't expect V either.
How different will this time be? Assessing the prospects for economic recovery from the Covid-19 crisis | EUROPP

Nope, CNBC don't think V is unlikely
Coronavirus update: A '''V'''-shaped economic recovery getting less likely

From the Guardian, regarding our governement's view. They'd love a V, but don't expect it
Chancellor plays down hopes of quick economic recovery | Business | The Guardian

My link dates
1) 28th Apr
2) 23rd Apr
3) 6th Apr
4) 19th May

Pooper's link dates
1) 14th Apr
2) 17th Apr