To V or not to V

[ladymuck]

I called it on March 23rd

https://www.contractoruk.com/forums/...ml#post2747951

Not exactly. You shared a link and gave very little interpretation or comment with it. Technically, the person who wrote the article has the 'scoop'.

[jamesbrown]

I called it on March 23rd

https://www.contractoruk.com/forums/...ml#post2747951

Good call in hindsight; that is when it flipped. I'm also long now, absent any evidence of a second wave (i.e., at least until later this year). The stock markets have been divorced from the real economy for ~10 years and that isn't going to change soon.

Make no mistake, the real economy is in a world of pain. Since housing is more sensitive to the real economy, even with cheap money, I am more bearish on that. It's also worth remembering that the UK stock markets are still 25% down on their recent peak, so the recovery has been much shallower than the tech-heavy US, so far. It's difficult to see housing going anywhere but down, but it probably won't be clear until the autumn when price discovery has occurred and the gov't schemes have properly ended (noting the 45 day redundancy notification period).

[DimPrawn]

So are we boomed or doomed? Where's the executive/cretin friendly summary?

[jamesbrown]

So are we boomed or doomed? Where's the executive/cretin friendly summary?

Stocks are mostly boomed for the next few months, housing and housing stocks are mostly doomed in the next 6-9 months.

[minestrone]

Nobody knows, we have been running this economy on the equation of exchange for 40 years and money velocity and production are clearly screwed. But...

"there is no basis in economic theory or supporting evidence for the Government's belief that by deflating demand they will bring inflation permanently under control"







Tells me roasters with opinions are usually wrong.