Reply to: economic crisis death toll

[BrilloPad]

Typical Christian, kill everyone who you don't agree with. You would have been a good one for the Spanish inquisition

Their two chief weapons are surprise, fear and fanatical devotion to admin....

[MasterBait]

I don't threaten. Is that better?

Typical Christian, kill everyone who you don't agree with. You would have been a good one for the Spanish inquisition

[Hobosapien]

Social distancing could be needed into next year. This is the new normal for the foreseeable.

Whenever we step outside for whatever reason, we need to do a risk assessment on the impact of catching it.

The optimistic part of me thinks catching it now may be better than later as I feel I am in the low risk category, then once immune I can go about normal life and ensure I can look after those that may be more at risk. Presuming once immune you can't spread it to others, and also can't re-catch it either from the same or any mutated strains that come along. That is the big unknown at the moment, so it's safer to try to avoid it until some of the unknowns are figured out and there is a way of being sure one is safe and signalling that to others in whatever official way they decide.

Hopefully they will soon have tests available to the masses, ideally home diy kits, that detect if currently have it (and not normal cold or flu that must be causing many to self-isolate just because they can't be sure) or have already had it, so can be sure of the impact of breaking isolation to visit others or go on the elusive bog roll hunt that is now the riskiest game in town.


Sobering thoughts, though that may just be the lack of alcohol now the pubs are shut and the supermarkets sold out.

Stay safe and beware of the bollox as there will be much of it online and in the media.

[BrilloPad]

This.

I just pray this can be done without us ending up in a much worse situation than post-2008.

The issues of 2008 were never resolved - just postponed. There is too much debt. Too much inequality.

I hope when all this is done younger people have a better future. And if I go ill then I get given maxiumum morphine dose.

MrsBP's father died of morphine overdose. He had terminal cancer. He was a fireman and once got badly burned on both arms. He never seemed to notice the pain. But was screaming in agony from the cancer. MrsBP is eternally grateful for the common sense of doctors and nurses that his last days were bearable.

[cannon999]

It's scary that some people keep pushing the 'it's like a cold' agenda hinting that we shouldn't look after the older people and care about the economy instead. Fuc5ing idiots.

[hairymouse]

Interesting bit added to the end of the latest email from my accountant:
"At this time of uncertainty, we appreciate that this could be a very difficult time for many of you. Therefore, we would like to remind you of our partnership with Samaritans. They offer a safe, confidential place to talk. To get in touch, call 116 123."

I'm hoping that wasn't a a comment on my particular financial situation.

[cojak]

Yes people are in hospital, so what, it happens 365days per year and this year even 366 days.
BTW Do you always send messages to people threatening to ban them if they post something you don't agree with?

Now I don't ban for 99.9% of opinions (that's what I posted Coolcat's video).

I threatened the ban for the false facts that you were spouting in the first post.

NAT banned you for your opinion...

[NotAllThere]

Yes people are in hospital, so what, it happens 365days per year and this year even 366 days.
BTW Do you always send messages to people threatening to ban them if they post something you don't agree with?

I don't threaten. Is that better?

[vetran]

I wasn't arguing for, or against, certain actions, just pointing out that every action has a consequence, and it's easy to be armchair experts but unless we live in others shoes we don't know what they're going through.

I agree with 1 ..... but how 'flat' is flat enough?

For 2, do we need a vaccine? We don't know if people are immune once they have had this virus, and we don't know how many people have had the virus but shown no signs but are now immune. There are still so many unknowns and even the experts are still learning.

3. When/if the goodwill runs out, what gives first? A rock and a hard place for the world's leaders.

4. Agreed. Otherwise more people may die because of the actions to try and slow the spread of the virus, than die of the virus itself.

1.That is what the experts need to define. I suspect very flat is required, its not like the NHS is that flabby at the clinical level or that organised.
2. Re-infection is occurring so yes, its also a ~1-3% death rate expect 250,000 deaths. Anything that reduces that is welcome.
3. Well we seem to be seeing companies working to help those without work.
4. lets hope not many.

[Whorty]

4 key things about the current measures

1. We have to flatten the "Sombrero" otherwise the NHS will collapse and deaths from COVID-19 & OTHER diseases will skyrocket without treatment.
2. We need to delay infections until we have a vaccine or lower cost (effort & money) treatments so the NHS doesn't collapse.
3. We currently have goodwill if we can maintain it a long closure may be effective, the usual suspects will be out stealing new new kicks soon, maybe we can shoot them? Sorry harsh but expected.
4. We need to make sure that our workers have some jobs to go back to as despair is a path to civil disobedience.

I wasn't arguing for, or against, certain actions, just pointing out that every action has a consequence, and it's easy to be armchair experts but unless we live in others shoes we don't know what they're going through.

I agree with 1 ..... but how 'flat' is flat enough?

For 2, do we need a vaccine? We don't know if people are immune once they have had this virus, and we don't know how many people have had the virus but shown no signs but are now immune. There are still so many unknowns and even the experts are still learning.

3. When/if the goodwill runs out, what gives first? A rock and a hard place for the world's leaders.

4. Agreed. Otherwise more people may die because of the actions to try and slow the spread of the virus, than die of the virus itself.

[DealorNoDeal]

1. We have to flatten the "Sombrero" otherwise the NHS will collapse and deaths from COVID-19 & OTHER diseases will skyrocket without treatment.

This.

I just pray this can be done without us ending up in a much worse situation than post-2008.

[tomtomagain]

Has anyone seen any estimates for how many £trillions this will end up costing the economy?

The cost is irrelevant.

Do something ... it's going to cost £billions and impact millions of lives

Do nothing ... it's going to cost £billions and impact millions of lives.


You don't always get to pick the wars you fight. But you gotta fight them.

[tomtomagain]

maybe, when you've grown up in poverty like we have we are more attuned to what those now living on the bread line are going through. I don't know....

I hope you haven't misunderstoond ( or I have mis-explained ) my position.

I think that this shut-down is the ONLY way to protect the most vulnerable in society.

I think the government must also act in a much more radical way to support the workers who are going to (hopefully, temporarily) lose their incomes in the next few days and months.

I'm hoping that this afternoon we'll see some major announcements by the chancellor on this subject.

I'm arguing against the "Just let it rip" view-point as I believe that this will hurt the most vulnerable far more in both the short-term and medium to long-term.

The cost of support is going to be huge. But it's going to spread across the next 100 years or so.

[vetran]

It's a rock and a hard place for the government. If they do nothing they get criticized; if they do something they are criticized. I don't like BoJo and his pals, but I do feel for him in this situation as he cannot win.

The OP (in a messy way) does make some interesting points, and we will not truly know the outcome until it's all over and we can look back in hindsight. It would certainly be nice if simply locking down the economy, making people stay at home etc could remove the virus from circulating and save lives, but for every action there is a cost.

We're privileged as contractors; most of us have decent war chests and can survive for years without working (I've got at least 16 years of cash to live on), so it's easy for us to say, close everything down. but what about those millions who live on the edge, hand to mouth, every month?

As people get more desperate, there will be a bigger risk of social breakdown (riots, looting etc) that could result in loss of life. Financial issues is a big cause of suicide (mostly in men) and family breakdowns.

What is the payoff we're willing to make, between saving a few thousand from dying from the virus, compared to losing (maybe) a few thousand from financial and social issues?

We all have a view, none of us have an answer, but it's certainly easy from our ivory towers to preach a certain way as we can afford to. Not so easy for those much worse off than us.

4 key things about the current measures

1. We have to flatten the "Sombrero" otherwise the NHS will collapse and deaths from COVID-19 & OTHER diseases will skyrocket without treatment.
2. We need to delay infections until we have a vaccine or lower cost (effort & money) treatments so the NHS doesn't collapse.
3. We currently have goodwill if we can maintain it a long closure may be effective, the usual suspects will be out stealing new new kicks soon, maybe we can shoot them? Sorry harsh but expected.
4. We need to make sure that our workers have some jobs to go back to as despair is a path to civil disobedience.

[BrilloPad]

Has anyone seen any estimates for how many £trillions this will end up costing the economy?

I could guess if you want. But I am more worried about the human toll.