Reply to: Wisdom of the crowd - FTSE100 low point

[Whorty]

Maybe we should introduce a new game to the xmas do. Being a room full of highly paid professionals we can't play pin the tail on the donkey so instead we wear a blindfold and will put a pin in the FTSE graph. Nearest pin to the price on COP last trading day of Jan wins.

Most ridiculous pin that hasn't a hope of being anywhere near win the scooter prize.

One of the members would get himself 30 pins, and if one of them is the closest, he'd claim he called it, and knew what the outcome would be all along

[BrilloPad]

Maybe we should introduce a new game to the xmas do. Being a room full of highly paid professionals we can't play pin the tail on the donkey so instead we wear a blindfold and will put a pin in the FTSE graph. Nearest pin to the price on COP last trading day of Jan wins.

Most ridiculous pin that hasn't a hope of being anywhere near win the scooter prize.

I remember the year admin did that to pick poster of the year. Well its the only way you could have won...

[northernladuk]

not bad if it stays like this

Maybe we should introduce a new game to the xmas do. Being a room full of highly paid professionals we can't play pin the tail on the donkey so instead we wear a blindfold and will put a pin in the FTSE graph. Nearest pin to the price on COP last trading day of Jan wins.

Most ridiculous pin that hasn't a hope of being anywhere near win the scooter prize.

[VirtualMonkey]

5160 for me

not bad if it stays like this

[WTFH]

5196.

I'll be out of the running soon.

Then it's a case of getting ducks in a row when it bottoms out, then buy, buy.

[AtW]

1450 seems very low, on what basis would you expect the index to reach such a low?

Is it now?

[AtW]

1450

WHS

[BrilloPad]

Its like 1974 again.

[DimPrawn]

Anyone want to think again on their votes?

[DealorNoDeal]

It's said that diversification is the only free lunch in the markets.

Some people think diversification means owning a bunch of stocks and, sure, this is far less risky than only holding one (eg. AMD ) but true diversification means spreading your investments across different (ie. uncorrelated) asset classes.

Even a small amount of crypto in your portfolio is a good diversifier because it's not correlated with stocks, bonds, gold etc.

[scooterscot]

In any case, if you have a well diversified portfolio, spread across multiple asset classes*, then none of this should really matter.

Absolutely.

Really recommend reading Ray Dalio's principles. I'm really hooked on the idea everything is driven by demographics + debt cycles. It makes understanding present day world all that much more easier. In short, history repeats and sh!t happens.

[scooterscot]

Dividends... made popular by the baby boomer demographic. The same demographic that'll be selling stocks to live as the as their pensions fall short. Those boomers are going to cause the most problems for a recovery in the stock market for sure.

“There are around 76 million baby boomers about to retire and are doing so with insufficient savings. In addition, institutional investors such as pension plans, foundations and endowments are increasingly looking for dividend strategies to generate more income from their investments. It is already clear companies are beginning to respond to this: Microsoft, for example, recently increased its dividend by 25%. But it’s not just the giants doing this: we’re beginning to see similar moves across the board.”

They are also the same corporates that have indebted themselves to the hilt. An absolute cluster £$£@ of a storm is brewing and it'll be driven by a pension crisis, mark my words.

[DealorNoDeal]

You are overlooking one important factor - dividends.

I don't know what the yield on the FTSE is at the moment but over 10 years it would compound to a significant amount, which would make up for subdued capital growth.

In any case, if you have a well diversified portfolio, spread across multiple asset classes*, then none of this should really matter.

* global stocks, bonds, commodities, property, precious metals

[scooterscot]

I do know it will be a lot higher than this at some time in the next 10 years.

In addition, you might be surprised how incorrect the above statement is... I've circled the low points of previous recessions on the UK FTSE... do you see the length of time from peak to circled area? Do you also notice it is equal to the amount of time to recover to previous peak?

Now look at the last circled area according to the resistance trend I've drawn. I've not made this up, this is the chart telling us there is a slow resistance unlike anything we've seen before with a bear market that could last until 2025. Consider we've not had a recession since 2008, rather than every 8-10 years. This is falling on the back end of 12 years of boom. We could equally therefore see 5 years of recovery before we back to today's levels!!

A lot higher in 10 years time you say? I'll wager we'll be no higher than we are today. Imagine contributing to a linked share index pension for the next 10 years and not seeing any appreciation apart from added capital.

[scooterscot]

I'm just gutted I've fired my last buy bullet, I am all in on shares now and trying to scratch some more out of the company to buy more.
Fill ya boots, this is the dip you have been waiting for.
No-one knows where it's going to - NO-ONE. I do know it will be a lot higher than this at some time in the next 10 years.

Oh the irony.