Reply to: Crypto industry set to grow

[willendure]

Some incredibly smart people (like Lyn Alden) have bought Bitcoin but I personally consider it a big risk. For example if the Nasdaq went down but Bitcoin went up I wouid consider it.

In the last month, NDQ down 6.73%, BTC up 8.59%. We have also seen SPX and NDQ drop below their 200 day averages, whilst BTC just smashed its way above its 200 day. I know its not a long enough time horizon to be sure but the decoupling meme is certainly alive now.

I read Lyn Aldens book "Broken Money", a lot of things made sense that I had not fully appreciated before. Decided to run a full bitcoin node, installed core on a vm on my homelab box. Just for kicks this does not do any mining and I don't have a live wallet attached but helps to verify the network.

Decided I am going to start using my corporate bitstamp account and averaging a small amount every month from now on.

[Cookielove]

Crypto risky I know a few people who have made a fair whack on dogecoin …but it’s high risk!

[willendure]

Simple solution: get AI to trade crypto.

https://jesse.trade/

There certainly are patterns and short term predictability, whether or not large and predictable enough to exploit to make a consistent profit above buy and hold, not so sure. This framework only offers hyper parameter tuning through the genetic algorithm. I can see how more modern AI techniques can be used on this kind of data to predict probabilities of win/loss. Then use fractional kelly betting to enure your risk/return is likely to be positive. But is there enough edge beyond transaction costs?

[WTFH]

Simple solution: get AI to trade crypto.

[willendure]

It's crazy that we live in a world whereby gigantic companies like Nvidia can see 10% daily swings. In Peter Lynch's time hardly any stocks made those sort of moves in a year.

Regarding Bitcoin ... it's a strange one. Some incredibly smart people (like Lyn Alden) have bought Bitcoin but I personally consider it a big risk. I would only feel comfortable buying some if it stopped behaving like a 'risk on' tech stock and instead had its own path. For example if the Nasdaq went down but Bitcoin went up I wouid consider it. Also presently it's not a currency that can easily used in a transaction ... that has got to change.

I don't think poor Trump will end up doing Bitcoin any favours ..... I think the poor sucker will end up being the fall guy for a massive market crash that will take down both stocks and cryptos.

Yes, if bitcoin and nasdaq ever diverge, then it becomes its own thing. I certainly think if there is an AI bubble popping, it will take bitcoin down with it. The case for divergence comes if the dollar continues into fiscal dominance and they start printing money to pay their interest. In that scenario gold should do very well and by extension bitcoin too.

Trump could well end up being the fall guy for the AI bubble. If he imposes tarrifs too quickly that really will not help. Echoes of Reagan here his term in office started with a recession and then his policies really turned that around. It might not be bad for Trump overall if he gets the pain out of the way early, then takes credit for the boom that follows.

[mogga71]

Its volatility has been falling over time.

Get this...

https://blockchain.news/flashnews/bi...paypal-and-amd

"On January 15, 2025, Bitcoin's volatility was reported to be lower than that of Nvidia, PayPal, and AMD, according to data from IntoTheBlock (Source: TheCryptoBasic, January 15, 2025). Specifically, Bitcoin's 30-day volatility stood at 2.34%, while Nvidia's was at 3.12%, PayPal's at 2.89%, and AMD's at 3.05% (Source: IntoTheBlock, January 15, 2025). This decrease in volatility reflects Bitcoin's growing maturity in the financial markets, signaling a shift towards more stable trading conditions."

Makes me think of the falling volatility of emerging markets from 1990 through to 2007 due to the ending of the cold war and globalization. If you spotted the trend, you profitted handsomely.

It's crazy that we live in a world whereby gigantic companies like Nvidia can see 10% daily swings. In Peter Lynch's time hardly any stocks made those sort of moves in a year.

Regarding Bitcoin ... it's a strange one. Some incredibly smart people (like Lyn Alden) have bought Bitcoin but I personally consider it a big risk. I would only feel comfortable buying some if it stopped behaving like a 'risk on' tech stock and instead had its own path. For example if the Nasdaq went down but Bitcoin went up I wouid consider it. Also presently it's not a currency that can easily used in a transaction ... that has got to change.

I don't think poor Trump will end up doing Bitcoin any favours ..... I think the poor sucker will end up being the fall guy for a massive market crash that will take down both stocks and cryptos.

[willendure]

Fair enough - its only a short term trend. But still remarkable that it ever got there.

[willendure]

Sure. Having a highly volatile produce as a significant part of your economy has got to be brilliant.

Its volatility has been falling over time.

Get this...

https://blockchain.news/flashnews/bi...paypal-and-amd

"On January 15, 2025, Bitcoin's volatility was reported to be lower than that of Nvidia, PayPal, and AMD, according to data from IntoTheBlock (Source: TheCryptoBasic, January 15, 2025). Specifically, Bitcoin's 30-day volatility stood at 2.34%, while Nvidia's was at 3.12%, PayPal's at 2.89%, and AMD's at 3.05% (Source: IntoTheBlock, January 15, 2025). This decrease in volatility reflects Bitcoin's growing maturity in the financial markets, signaling a shift towards more stable trading conditions."

Makes me think of the falling volatility of emerging markets from 1990 through to 2007 due to the ending of the cold war and globalization. If you spotted the trend, you profitted handsomely.

[sadkingbilly]

<scooty stylee justifications> TLR.

aye - good luck with that.

[willendure]

135% of pie in the sky.
try translating into REAL money/goods.

No, not bought a car. Still in bitcoin I have to admit. For 2 reasons mainly - I already have capital gains to pay this year, so don't really want to sell before April. I also think its going to go higher so selling now would be premature. According to my crystal ball anyway. I should also add, I have not put my life savings into this, just a smaller chunk of cash that I can afford to lose, or don't need to cash out if it falls.

The changes that the Trump government are proposing to make to bitcoin could have a very big effect on its adoption. 2 things essentially:

1. They propose to stop all the debanking that is happening, which is preventing companies from investing in crypto.
2. They propose to change the accounting rules, so that bitcoin can be on the balance sheet as an asset.

Personally, I think the implications of this are huge because it leads to mainstream adoption. Bitcoin has a stock to flow ratio below that of gold at the last halving, and it still has 5x to grow in market cap to reach the level of gold. I think it will get there, whether its this cycle or the next is anyones guess.

I also think there is likely to be a significant crash in US stocks this year, and that will probably take bitcoin down with it. So yeah, just hoping it doesn't happen before 6th April. But if the price does fall back down again, I will be buying more at the bottom.

As far as contracting goes, if the crypto industry is reinvigorated we might see more blockchain related work come up.

Unfortunately, not making enough from it to give up contracting. Most of my investments are in a SIPP and sensibly invested with an eye on risk and volatility. Gold has been particularly strong in 2024 and I also think that trend will continue, or at least it will be a solid anchor if there is a crash.

$TRUMP coin - yeah that is a scam. An embarrasment even, cashing in his presidency. Not the sort of guy who puts his wants behind those of his country.

But also be aware that our real money £ is also losing its value. Inflation has been much higher than official figures. The US as owner of the dollar and worlds reserve currency, can export its inflation to the world. The once Great nation of Britain cannot, since the pound is no longer the worlds reserve currency. And our debt to gdp ratio is pretty ugly. So I recommend considering putting some of your money into dollar denominated hard assets.

[sadkingbilly]

Oh no, I feel so stupid making 135% in the last 10 months.

135% of pie in the sky.
try translating into REAL money/goods.

[WTFH]

Oh no, I feel so stupid making 135% in the last 10 months.

I'm not sure why this thread is in "Business/Contracts", but if you're doing so well at this, then you don't need to worry about going back to contracting.

[cojak]

Oh no, I feel so stupid making 135% in the last 10 months.

You go for it. Have you bought a car or something with your winnings?

[willendure]

Oh no, I feel so stupid making 135% in the last 10 months.

[jamesbrown]

Not with my money it's not. They'll just have to find more gullible fools.

They found scootie. They can only hit that sort of jackpot once in a cosmos.