Reply to: State of the Market

[Manic]

Another decent opportunity via a LinkedIn approach.

Trouble is, I'm awaiting sign-off on another one for a client that is known to me. Sod's law eh? Buses coming along two at once!

On the back of last week's flurry of activity on the same platform, it does give me some renewed hope for the market, and for all those on here that are looking.

Bird in hand......

I'd be following up both in this market.

[Bluenose]

Another decent opportunity via a LinkedIn approach.

Trouble is, I'm awaiting sign-off on another one for a client that is known to me. Sod's law eh? Buses coming along two at once!

On the back of last week's flurry of activity on the same platform, it does give me some renewed hope for the market, and for all those on here that are looking.

Thats more like it, keep your linked-in-FU sharp lads.

[oliverson]

Another decent opportunity via a LinkedIn approach.

Trouble is, I'm awaiting sign-off on another one for a client that is known to me. Sod's law eh? Buses coming along two at once!

On the back of last week's flurry of activity on the same platform, it does give me some renewed hope for the market, and for all those on here that are looking.

[SussexSeagull]

Anyone seen this before?

[dsc]

Anyone taken on very short roles…chance of a 6 week role inside IR35…normally I’d not look at a job that short. Won’t extend it has cut off mid Feb….so 6 weeks…can’t say am enthused !

Still better than 6 weeks on £0ph isn't it?

[Cookielove]

Anyone taken on very short roles…chance of a 6 week role inside IR35…normally I’d not look at a job that short. Won’t extend it has cut off mid Feb….so 6 weeks…can’t say am enthused !

[willendure]

Interesting chart, thanks.

Kind of explains my 17 months on the bench from end Jan 2020.

Obviously 2020 was a write off. I was off for the whole of 2020 too, but my wife works for the NHS, so that was also partly due to me teaching the kids at home!

Prior to 2020, I was doing working as Solutions/Technical Architect and doing well. I notice that kind of work dried up after 2020, I guess as businesses went into keeping-the-lights-on mode. But there was work for maintenance coders and infrastructure people in line with the keeping things running theme. Solutions/Technical Architect contracts, and I would guess also Project Management has never really bounced back since 2020.

Talking to a friend I bumped into recently who runs his own startup, said he was hiring in 2021 and everyone he spoke to seemed to have multiple offers of work, so it was hard and he had to make generous offers to get his team.

Its been down, up, and down again since 2020. But also the kind of work available has been shifting around a bit too.

[oliverson]

https://www.rec.uk.com/our-view/news...growth-october

Interesting chart, thanks.

Kind of explains my 17 months on the bench from end Jan 2020.

[coolhandluke]

I'm currently on a FTC that recently got extended to 2026 (Education - Public Sector). All the perms have been offered voluntary redundancy with enhanced terms that would see them get 1 years pay. Wished they extended it to the FTC

[dsc]

Interesting to see permanent placements doing so tulipe since Oct 2022, I guess at that point temps were used instead, but since end of last year even that went tits up.

I know this means nothing as it's just a tiny example, but at my current client stacks of people have left and no one new got hired and this has been going on for over a year now. Heck I even told them I'm interested in going perm cause I want to move countries and they were like...yeah we'll think about it and keep extending me instead. Another big competitor in the industry (green energy) - similar story, trimmed teams down to the bare bones, no one being hired. Seems like it's all about survival with the lowest cost possible.

[willendure]

https://www.rec.uk.com/our-view/news...growth-october

[oliverson]

Companies can carry a trading loss back to previous years to claim relief by offsetting it against earlier profits, which could generate a Corporation Tax refund so do consider that as well.

Well pointed out. I totally forgot about that and it was a big assist for me in my 17 months on the bench.

[SussexSeagull]

Strange happenings but I've had 4 contract opportunities 'thrust' my way, all on LinkedIn within the last 24 hours!

[Update]
Woah, just as soon as I clicked 'Send', another one!!

WTF is going on? Have hope people!!

[Update 2]

Now I've seen the specs, turns out 3 of them are the same role.

However, a quick glimpse on Jobserve shows another new one, completely unrelated. Decent rate, outside, remote (almost exclusively).

Admittedly not quite that quickly but I find if you are going to be in the running for a contract then you will be in the running for more than one then go a while with radio silence.

Problem is getting one over the line.

[willendure]

So you are saying there will be a stock market crash? Sorry I don't understand financial markets We have not had one for years TBF. But won't that mean, even fewer jobs and longer recovery?

Right now there is a long list of red flags that say a major recession is on the way in the USA. Europe is already in one, a lot of that because of Ukraine and energy prices hurting German industry. Usually the USA leads the way into recession and bounces back first too - because the $ is the worlds reserve currency when US liquidity dries up it has a knock on effect on the rest of the world.

Some of the current red flags are, the Buffet indicator (total market earnings vs gdp), the longest and deepest yield curve inversion since 1929, the Sahm rule (rising unemployment), and many more besides.

A lot of people are optimistic that Trump will be "Reagans 3rd term". In other words someone who will slash taxes and regulation and unleash the economy. Even under Reagan it took a long time for the economy to boom. And that was from a starting point of inflation falling from 12%, 30% debt/gdp, corporate debt less than 1/10th of what it is now, a growing workforce instead of shrinking, and many other things being different.

One stock market analogy is a pile of sand and single grains are being dropped onto the pile. The pile accumulates into an ever steeper pile, sometimes with little landslides. But then one grain triggers a huge landslide - a crash. But the exact moment and reason this happens can be quite random although there is a correlation between the size and steepness of the pile and size of the crash. In other words, no-one really knows when and how big. But I do think a major correction is on the way.

Fewer jobs and longer recovery - it seems likely does it not?

Another factor in this is the reaction function. We know that because of what happened in 2008 the monetary reaction to a crash is better prepared, there are all kinds of central bank programs ready to fire. They were fired in 2020 for example, and we saw that V shaped crash and rapid bounce back. Only thing is, that isn't free, it will cause a lot of inflation and balooning of government debt. Seems to me that things could get quite messy over the next decade or so.

[SchumiStars]

The S&P 500 is doing well because much of the money coming in is on auto pilot. Americans with jobs who pay regularly into their 401K pension funds and buy ETFs. They started auto enrolment in 2006, which means unless they opt out, they will be putting money in. Apart from the crash in 2008, and a few other wobbles, the stock market has been on a fairly steady trajectory ever since. Basically investing in equities is no longer about picking value investments, it is treating the stock market like a savings account with an expected return of 8% to 10%. Not so surprising when you recall that actual savings rates were near zero for much of that time.

But... compared with historical averages, equities are hugely over-priced at the moment. There is also a negative risk/reward in many cases compared with parking money in T-bills with zero risk, yet the money on auto-pilot still keeps coming in.

On the other hand, the amount of corporate/business/government debt is at historical highs, hence the low GDP growth rate.

It won't end well, but the ride could continue for some time. I hope the bubble bursts soon, because the longer it goes on, the worse it will be when it does pop.

So you are saying there will be a stock market crash? Sorry I don't understand financial markets We have not had one for years TBF. But won't that mean, even fewer jobs and longer recovery?