Reply to: State of the Market

[oliverson]

I've had a few enquiries this week on my availability from recruiters. Better days on the horizon?

The increase in Employers NI might bring outside IR35 assessments back into vogue so could be a glint of light in a dark budget. Better still they could scrap IR35 completely in the interest of fairness as Div will be taxed at income rates or they scrap small business rate relief on corporate tax...

I don't see that at all, quite the opposite.

What I feel will happen is that firms won't take on new employees and instead engage people on inside IR35 contracts, so as to avoid both Employer's NI and employee rights. Either that or just not take anybody on, perhaps offshore work where it is possible to do so.

[dsc]

You did indeed say that, apologies. I skim-read while pretending to pay attention to something else and should have just done one thing at a time

No probs, but I think it raises an interesting point ie. what is classed as a business and how "outsiders" see contractors. I think to most, 40hr - one client contractors are not really seen as a business and I tend to agree. Yes I get that some jump from 3-6month contract to another 3-6month contract, but I'd still class this as temp "employment" (where all the perks are simply converted into cash). Now I'll get my coat and bugger off before I get eaten alive...

[oliverson]

Its not close because even though the polls are neck and neck, because its an Electoral College the Democrats need to win by 3%+ points to stand any chance of winning the EC. Clinton won the popular vote by 2.1% but failed to win the EC , Biden won by 4.5% and so was able to win the EC.

The Democrats are now left hoping the Polls are underestimating Harris support by 3%. And she is really 3% ahead of Trump and the polls just are not showing it.

Or hoping they can pull a stunt with those dominion voting machines?!

[ladymuck]

Nope, that's why I said "You'd need to be doing some form of consultancy where you spend way less than 40hrs a week on a client and then maybe you'll manage a couple of clients. If you do a classic bum on seat / soft dev / 40hrs a week role, you are effectively an employee with less control over you and more money in your pocket (or should I say in your company bank account)."

Never have I said it's impossible, but most of us don't work that way and it's not what clients want most of the time. Typically it's a bod they want for a full week / 40hrs and trying to paint this as a "business" is rather silly. What you've described however is how we should be operating and this I would actually call a proper business.

You did indeed say that, apologies. I skim-read while pretending to pay attention to something else and should have just done one thing at a time

[dsc]

I've done multiple concurrent contracts. At one point I had three gigs at the same time. They were all part time roles. You're assuming that every client wants 40h a week.

Nope, that's why I said "You'd need to be doing some form of consultancy where you spend way less than 40hrs a week on a client and then maybe you'll manage a couple of clients. If you do a classic bum on seat / soft dev / 40hrs a week role, you are effectively an employee with less control over you and more money in your pocket (or should I say in your company bank account)."

Never have I said it's impossible, but most of us don't work that way and it's not what clients want most of the time. Typically it's a bod they want for a full week / 40hrs and trying to paint this as a "business" is rather silly. What you've described however is how we should be operating and this I would actually call a proper business.

[BlueSharp]

I've had a few enquiries this week on my availability from recruiters. Better days on the horizon?

The increase in Employers NI might bring outside IR35 assessments back into vogue so could be a glint of light in a dark budget. Better still they could scrap IR35 completely in the interest of fairness as Div will be taxed at income rates or they scrap small business rate relief on corporate tax...

[escapeUK]

Dear god man.

Literally no one can call any government led by Keir Starmer as hardline communist. If by public scroungers you are including Doctors then I suggest you train for ten years to do the job if it is that easy.

Why have all the shops gone? Ever heard of internet shopping?

Like it or not the previous government was turfed out at the last election and now someone else gets a go for five years. It's called democracy.

Educate yourself on Comrade Stamer:

"Socialist Alternatives was the British section of the International Revolutionary Marxist Tendency (IRMT), a formerly Trotskyist Pabloite group based in Paris.^[1] Being a small group in the UK, it was best known for the Marxist magazine of the same name founded in Oxford^[2] by Ben Schoendorff^[3] and partially edited by Keir Starmer from 1986 to 1987"

Yeah we've had the internet for over 20 years now, and its a crap experience for certain things for instance buying clothes and shoes. So how does that account for the loss of much of the high street in the last year or two?

We don't have democracy here. That's quite obvious.

[Snooky]

hard communist government

LOL. Just listen to yourself

[Cookielove]

Hopefully interest rates will drop next week....re the US election I think Trump will get in. That's my thoughts...

[Fraidycat]

the US election is extremely close, even if Trump is slight favourite at the moment.

Its not close because even though the polls are neck and neck, because its an Electoral College the Democrats need to win by 3%+ points to stand any chance of winning the EC. Clinton won the popular vote by 2.1% but failed to win the EC , Biden won by 4.5% and so was able to win the EC.

The Democrats are now left hoping the Polls are underestimating Harris support by 3%. And she is really 3% ahead of Trump and the polls just are not showing it.

[Fraidycat]

But in those previous times did the downturn ending start with a new hard communist government who wants to tax and spend us into extinction?

Its a serious serious depression, not recession. And 20% of our voted in the commies.

People were saying that to me back in 1992 and 1993 when houses were still get repossessed and the IT market was also very bad.

So things were much more Depression like back then.


Its a Depression when you cant find a contract but only a Recession when your fellow CUK members cant.


Back then it was a case of its a Depression when your house got repossessed but only a recession when you neighbour did.

[SussexSeagull]

But in those previous times did the downturn ending start with a new hard communist government who wants to tax and spend us into extinction? With eye watering wage increases to the public scroungers and even a large increase to minimum wage which is all incredibly inflationary. I think the interest rates are much more likely to increase rather than decrease.

And also when you say downturn for contractors, I say look at the high street. Where have all the shops gone? Why is everything run down and empty? Its not just us, its everyone. Even a place like Wilko (open all through pandemic) couldn't keep trading in this downturn, yet they sell (sold) cheap items.

Its a serious serious depression, not recession. And 20% of our voted in the commies.

Dear god man.

Literally no one can call any government led by Keir Starmer as hardline communist. If by public scroungers you are including Doctors then I suggest you train for ten years to do the job if it is that easy.

Why have all the shops gone? Ever heard of internet shopping?

Like it or not the previous government was turfed out at the last election and now someone else gets a go for five years. It's called democracy.

[escapeUK]

Still to early to say. We are 28 months into this downturn for contractors. Previous downturns (early 90s and early 2000s) have lasted 30 to 36 month . I will worry when we hit the 36 month mark and things still haven't markedly improved...

Tech sector redundancies set a new low this month (although the month isn't quite over yet).

Trump looks set to win in the US.

UK budget will be done this week.

Just need interest rates to fall below 4%. Don't even need to go all the way back to 0%. And we will back to the races sometime in 2025.

But in those previous times did the downturn ending start with a new hard communist government who wants to tax and spend us into extinction? With eye watering wage increases to the public scroungers and even a large increase to minimum wage which is all incredibly inflationary. I think the interest rates are much more likely to increase rather than decrease.

And also when you say downturn for contractors, I say look at the high street. Where have all the shops gone? Why is everything run down and empty? Its not just us, its everyone. Even a place like Wilko (open all through pandemic) couldn't keep trading in this downturn, yet they sell (sold) cheap items.

Its a serious serious depression, not recession. And 20% of our <insert suitable word> voted in the commies.

[ladymuck]

If you are a one man band you can't really operate as a proper business as there's only one of you, how are you going to manage more than say 2 clients at the same time? You'd need to be doing some form of consultancy where you spend way less than 40hrs a week on a client and then maybe you'll manage a couple of clients. If you do a classic bum on seat / soft dev / 40hrs a week role, you are effectively an employee with less control over you and more money in your pocket (or should I say in your company bank account).

I've done multiple concurrent contracts. At one point I had three gigs at the same time. They were all part time roles. You're assuming that every client wants 40h a week.

[SussexSeagull]

If you are a one man band you can't really operate as a proper business as there's only one of you, how are you going to manage more than say 2 clients at the same time? You'd need to be doing some form of consultancy where you spend way less than 40hrs a week on a client and then maybe you'll manage a couple of clients. If you do a classic bum on seat / soft dev / 40hrs a week role, you are effectively an employee with less control over you and more money in your pocket (or should I say in your company bank account).

Most contractors only ever do one contract at a time. In fact doing more than one at a time is only really doable with remote working which only became widespread during lockdown and is showing signs of being reversed.

I agree to be a proper consultancy is difficult when there is only one of you but that is the way it has worked for years. Even in the outside contracts I have had it has become an increasingly difficult to be treated like an external contractor and not an employee under different terms.

The wider economy might not be great but a lot of clients (although not all of them) haven't helped with blanket inside designations and turning engagements into constant battles over working practices when they do designate outside.