Reply to: State of the Market

[BigDataPro]

Christ. Just had an email for a Service Manager for DWP in Blackpool. 2-3 days on site. Tons of qualifications and experience required..... 260-285 a day inside...

That's the worst rate I think I've ever seen for work in my area. I think I'll pass thank you.

Everything + Personal Statement. I have a feeling that they deliberately ask too many things, so they have a reason to support candidate rejection and makes it easier to give away the role to Public Sector contracting companies like BJSS, Kainos etc.

The funny thing is that the same contractors who were rejected by them earlier gets the role at a better rate. Public sector Efficiency is Awesome!

[northernladuk]

Christ. Just had an email for a Service Manager for DWP in Blackpool. 2-3 days on site. Tons of qualifications and experience required..... 260-285 a day inside...

That's the worst rate I think I've ever seen for work in my area. I think I'll pass thank you.

[oliverson]

Thanks for posting these graphs and stats. It looks like the current slump started around 18 months ago. The 2001 slump lasted 30 months or so, so we know that is very possible. I think what worries me is that the situation globally is still deteriorating - as you say, the 4 interest rate cuts never materialized. So my reading of this is that the current slump is still on a downward trajectory and the turnaround some way off.

Here are just some of the indications that I am aware of that suggest a large deflationary event is on its way:

* Strong correlation between the VIX (volatility index) and interest rates delayed 18 months. Suggests high likelyhood of coming volatility over the next 6 months.

* Current rising CDO defaults on commercial real estate. The worst is still to come and we can expect bank failures.

* The "Hindenberg Omen" technical indicator is giving a signal right now - stock market rising but more companies making new 52-week lows than making 52-week highs. That is, the market is getting very concentrated into just a few stocks. NVidia!

* The Shiller P/E ratio made a new high since the last one in 1999, meaning stocks are now more overpriced than they were then.

* US house sales dropped to a low at the start of this year. Strong indicator of a coming recession.

None of these are perfect on their own, but taken together - and there are more - are a mounting collection of evidence that the US economy is coming under strain and will reach a breaking point.

Oil is currently relatively low. If it were to rise, that might be the trigger.

I don't really buy into all this theory stuff if I'm honest. Common sense suggests that when both elections are done and rates start getting cut, the market will improve. Better still if some peace deal gets struck. Those on the bench, hold on there and keep the faith.

On the plus side, the property market in my neck of the woods (Yorkshire) has just caught fire. On my return from the supermarket today, a journey of just over 1 mile, on the main road alone, 12 For Sale signs and 1 To Let. Eight of those properties have sold and the rental has been let. Three more my estate all sold. Some folk out there are doing well, have the confidence to move. Also lots of people staying and improving/extending what they've got. Further afield in Southern Spain where I have property, prices have shot up, 12.5% in the last year (after flatlining for a decade since the financial crash).

[willendure]

The good news is, if you are out of work right now, its not because you are a numpty - the market really is bad!

[willendure]

Thanks for posting these graphs and stats. It looks like the current slump started around 18 months ago. The 2001 slump lasted 30 months or so, so we know that is very possible. I think what worries me is that the situation globally is still deteriorating - as you say, the 4 interest rate cuts never materialized. So my reading of this is that the current slump is still on a downward trajectory and the turnaround some way off.

Here are just some of the indications that I am aware of that suggest a large deflationary event is on its way:

* Strong correlation between the VIX (volatility index) and interest rates delayed 18 months. Suggests high likelyhood of coming volatility over the next 6 months.

* Current rising CDO defaults on commercial real estate. The worst is still to come and we can expect bank failures.

* The "Hindenberg Omen" technical indicator is giving a signal right now - stock market rising but more companies making new 52-week lows than making 52-week highs. That is, the market is getting very concentrated into just a few stocks. NVidia!

* The Shiller P/E ratio made a new high since the last one in 1999, meaning stocks are now more overpriced than they were then.

* US house sales dropped to a low at the start of this year. Strong indicator of a coming recession.

None of these are perfect on their own, but taken together - and there are more - are a mounting collection of evidence that the US economy is coming under strain and will reach a breaking point.

Oil is currently relatively low. If it were to rise, that might be the trigger.

[Fraidycat]

According to layoff.fyi, World wide tech layoffs increased in Q1 2024 to 57,000 from 23,000 in Q3 last year, and are on track for around 45,000 in Q2

We need a return to 2021 levels (see the chart below) for the boom times to return.

Second half of last year it looked like the worst was over, seven interest rates cuts were expected for 2024 back then and layoff fells,

but when those cuts didn't happen this year it looks like layoffs accelerated

[Fraidycat]

That site would suggest the market in general for most skills is down almost 60% compared to 2 years ago, when looked at over the last six months.

This month on its own, the market looks to be in even worse shape, probably down 80% on two years ago. While job applicants for each role could be 10x to 100x what they used to be.

[Fraidycat]

Have you got a graphic which represents more up to date data, this one shows up to 2010 please?

No chart, but this is data from ITJobswatch.co.uk, they cover all skills but these are the ones you are probably interested in:

	6months to June 2022	6months to June 2023	6months to June 2024
Contract jobs citing Finance	18,065	11,912	8,175
Contract jobs requiring a Developer	16,044	8,970	6,253
Contract jobs citing C#	5,216	2,884	2,051
Contract jobs citing Java	8965	4651	2816

https://www.itjobswatch.co.uk/contracts/uk/csharp.do

[SchumiStars]

Some historical data from the Jobstats archive, chart below.

Shows the 2001 slump lasted from mid 2001 to the end of 2003. That was 30 months.

The 2008 slump looks like it lasted around 15 months, the cut to almost zero interest rates saving the day.

With reports that this current slump started in mid 2022, would mean we are 24 months into this one

Have you got a graphic which represents more up to date data, this one shows up to 2010 please?

[SussexSeagull]

In pure terms of seeing opportunities appear on Jobserve or LinkedIn this is a bad as I have seen it in my 16 years in contracting. That said in my last few goes at getting a new contract it came through my network or being approached through LinkedIn so maybe it isn't the end of the world.

[edison]

Some historical data from the Jobstats archive, chart below.

Shows the 2001 slump lasted from mid 2001 to the end of 2003. That was 30 months.

The 2008 slump looks like it lasted around 15 months, the cut to almost zero interest rates saving the day.

With reports that this current slump started in mid 2022, would mean we are 24 months into this one

If the current slump eventually exceeds the 30 months from 2001-03, do we start to assume that the underlying cause might be driven more by structural 'IT market' changes rather than the overall business cycle?

Or is it the case that effects of Brexit/Covid will still take more time to work their way through the system?

[Fraidycat]

Some historical data from the Jobstats archive, chart below.

Shows the 2001 slump lasted from mid 2001 to the end of 2003. That was 30 months.

The 2008 slump looks like it lasted around 15 months, the cut to almost zero interest rates saving the day.

With reports that this current slump started in mid 2022, would mean we are 24 months into this one

[sreed]

The issue is a lot here have tried different venues and came out with a big fat zero. Everyone in their right might is looking at every possible angle to land anything and also coming up with nothing. It's not about accepting a low ball rate, it's about having any rate to consider in the first place.

Absolutely, that might well be the case for some, and people’s frame of reference might be hugely different.

But at least as far as I can tell (both from my recent experience and the hiring that I can see going on at the client that I work in, previous clients/employers, etc.) the job market in general is not apocalyptically bad to the extent that a large percentage of skilled contractors would have to fall back on Uber after 3 months of looking for something between their ideal role and the other extreme of unskilled/low-skilled jobs that anyone fresh off the boat could do.

[Peoplesoft bloke]

So buckle in kittens!

Bluerrrrrughh

[SchumiStars]

Just applied to the local college to teach CS. Also applied for a PGCE, perhaps a career change?!

Perhaps the market will never recover? IR35 has been such a horrible pain for the last 5 yrs that it's seems such a mountain to climb to get back to pre-covid rates.

2019 I was in for an investment bank, outside rate on a long term contract. COVID, IR35, Brexit all hit at once and my gosh is was an utter tulip show. I had also just taken on a large mortgage.

In all honesty it would have been easier to have just shot myself in the head and be done with it.