Reply to: State of the Market

[jamesbrown]

The UK employment statistics administered by ONS are currently in a dire state, as widely reported by the FT and others.

[SchumiStars]

If people are double-dipping (2 contracts at the same time), would this decrease the unemployment statistics?

Double negative but if someone has 2 jobs would that mean the statistics would suggest there were 2 people employed rather than one?

[willendure]

Isn't this because a fair amount of people are doing two jobs just to survive? jobs are paid at 2005-2010 levels, with current prices and mortgages being uber expensive, some people really have to work constantly to make ends meet. This would drive unemployment down, but it isn't a positive thing overall (definitely not for the ones doing it).

I really don't know, could be a factor.

I think unemployment figures are not counting those who have given up on work altogether, ill health, depression and so on. Supposedly those numbers are rising. Also employment as a %age could be growing, but productivity still shrinking if the workforce is getting smaller due to retirement and emmigration.

[dsc]

[...]
Figures on unemployment and inflation look good just now. But we also have to acknowledge that the way these things are counted is constantly being fudged to make them look good. No sensible government or central bank is going to come out and say "things are bad" until well after the fact, because saying so can be a self fulfilling prophecy. For example, look at what happen when Keir Starmer said the budget was going to be painful about 6 weeks before hand - that really killed the mood didn't it?
[...]

Isn't this because a fair amount of people are doing two jobs just to survive? jobs are paid at 2005-2010 levels, with current prices and mortgages being uber expensive, some people really have to work constantly to make ends meet. This would drive unemployment down, but it isn't a positive thing overall (definitely not for the ones doing it).

[dsc]

wtf? Dont all call at once!

Wow, so much goodness..."exceptional [...] opportunity" and "VIP support" also never new that having a car is a skill.

[willendure]

What I don't understand is lack of news on the subject. There is nothing being reported on official channels. Usually when there is such a downturn it's everywhere.

Interesting question, and something I have though about also.

If you think back to Aug 2007, there was a definite moment where the market plunged 15% in a day, and the papers had large headlines declaring a "Credit Crunch", and then it seemed like all they talked about for months, even years after. DotCom crash, similarly big story, but did not stay in the news for nearly so long - in part because it was eclipsed by 9/11, in part because it was not a systemic threat in the way 2007 and too-big-to-fail was.

If you think back to the 1990/1 recesssion, I remember my dad being out of work then, it was not really much of a story at all. What was the actual story back then? Credit tightening and rates increase or something. Something boring that most people were not interested in reading or hearing about. There was the first Gulf war too, with 3d cutaway diagrams of laser guided bombs in all the papers, way more exciting than some technical financial stuff.

Today, we are not in a crisis, just a kind of malaise. Seems to me like the UK has been in this malaise ever since the 2016 brexit vote. Things are not changing fast, there is no big crisis story to focus on, just a steady decline in living standards, perceived wealth and decline of the nation. Multiple and complex causes that cannot be summed up in a single headline or blamed on a particular scapegoat or government.

You will know we have entered the crisis phase when it gets a name that everybody knows.

As to what might tip us into that phase... Yen carry trade unwinding and an escalating Asian crisis perhaps. Maybe the 2025 corporate debt wall will fail to dematerialize unlike previous walls. Possibly the disruptive changes that Trump is planning on making to world trade will bring the house of cards down. Or maybe just the slow death until rising unemployment reaches a point where we are officially in a recession.

Figures on unemployment and inflation look good just now. But we also have to acknowledge that the way these things are counted is constantly being fudged to make them look good. No sensible government or central bank is going to come out and say "things are bad" until well after the fact, because saying so can be a self fulfilling prophecy. For example, look at what happen when Keir Starmer said the budget was going to be painful about 6 weeks before hand - that really killed the mood didn't it?

I think one indicator you can look at to get a sense of impending crisis mode, is the DXY (dollar index). Currently sitting close to 107. If it starts to go up again and breaks above 110 - game is on!

[kingmob]

wtf? Dont all call at once!

1st Line Support Engineer - Office 365, VIP, Field, Windows, Azure, AD, Home Based (UK wide travel)

[SchumiStars]

The official unemployment rate at the moment is 4.3% which is historically still low.
Nearly all stock markets are doing well and near all time highs (except the FTSE 250).
House prices are doing ok.

After lots of tech sector layoffs last years which were widely reported, vacancies in IT especially developer roles have fallen by 70%+ but it seems nobody cares about that except us and IT agents.

Yeah but I ******* care.

[Fraidycat]

What I don't understand is lack of news on the subject. There is nothing being reported on official channels. Usually when there is such a downturn it's everywhere.

The official unemployment rate at the moment is 4.3% which is historically still low.
Nearly all stock markets are doing well and near all time highs (except the FTSE 250).
House prices are doing ok.

After lots of tech sector layoffs last years which were widely reported, vacancies in IT especially developer roles have fallen by 70%+ but it seems nobody cares about that except us and IT agents.

[SchumiStars]

What I don't understand is lack of news on the subject. There is nothing being reported on official channels. Usually when there is such a downturn it's everywhere.

[oliverson]

Does feel like we are at least 12mth-18mths away from recovery.

The only stat that matters is you! Who cares if the market doesn't fully recover for 12 months, or 12 years? So long as you're in contract, life is good!

I've seen some encouraging activity over the past week or so on LinkedIn.

[SchumiStars]

Does feel like we are at least 12mth-18mths away from recovery.

[willendure]

Saw a role on Jobserve today for a SAP Architect / Test Lead. Is this what we have come to? Companies are looking for somebody who can do both completely unrelated roles. Jeez.

Must also have 10+ years experience in industry X. Excellent stakeholder management skills. In depth knowledge of these 12 obscure frameworks you probably never heard of: AFG1.2, XX-BO456, Java jellyfish API, C++ Oxymoron, ...

This is what happens in a buyers market, they can be as choosy as they like. Need some way filter 300+ CVs into the bin.

[dsc]

Been happening for years this, and has ramped up significantly post covid. It's like getting in an electrician but also asking them to fit a kitchen and landscape your garden at the same time.

qh

More like an electrical inspector who also has to design your extension and build it.

[quackhandle]

Saw a role on Jobserve today for a SAP Architect / Test Lead. Is this what we have come to? Companies are looking for somebody who can do both completely unrelated roles. Jeez.

Been happening for years this, and has ramped up significantly post covid. It's like getting in an electrician but also asking them to fit a kitchen and landscape your garden at the same time.

qh