Reply to: State of the Market

[willendure]

I know jobserve is just one reference point, but currently the headline number is 13,900, using wayback machine the number this time last year was 41,500.

It was also over 40,000 at the end of August last year of all months, but after the Budget that bounce vanished (actually began to vanish in September when starmer gave notice that the budget was going to be 'painful').

Has not recovered since.

You got me curious to check out the Jan numbers going back a couple of years to get a fuller picture:

2025 - 13,900
2024 - 41,572
2023 - 31,902
2022 - 51,589
2021 - 8,242
2020 - 14,593
2019 - 16,607
2018 - 12,248
2017 - 17,576
2016 - 15,225
2015 - 20,254

Not always on the same day in Jan, but I tried to find a snapshot from mid Jan each time, so the new years market is up and running.

In that longer view, 13,900 does not actually look too bad, I was not worried at all about finding a new contract in 2015 to 2020. Seems like its actually the last 3 years readings that are on the high side, I guess 2022/23 was the covid re-opening bounce, and 2021 the lockdown moment.

[Fraidycat]

I know jobserve is just one reference point, but currently the headline number is 13,900, using wayback machine the number this time last year was 41,500.

It was also over 40,000 at the end of August last year of all months, but after the Budget that bounce vanished (actually began to vanish in September when starmer gave notice that the budget was going to be 'painful').

Has not recovered since.

[SussexSeagull]

The economics of outsourcing can work at smaller scale now. I did a project a couple of years ago to outsource the service desk and application support plus a whole host of other IT capabilities to an Indian outsourcer and the client only had 600 users.

I am sure they can but below a certain level there is a case for contractors or some of the agents/consultancies that seem to exist.

All of this said, I am not convinced there is a huge amount of work going on full stop at the moment.

[edison]

This is it. The Government can control Visas but they can't realistically stop outsourcing.

I had some success working with SME who probably couldn't make the economies of scale of outsourcing work for them, although I have been out since May last year. That said the interviews I have had have been in that space.

The economics of outsourcing can work at smaller scale now. I did a project a couple of years ago to outsource the service desk and application support plus a whole host of other IT capabilities to an Indian outsourcer and the client only had 600 users.

[willendure]

I am not trying to start an argument but trying to answer my own question as to why the market is so ******* tulip.

Its the economy, stupid.

The magic money tree has run dry. There are other factors around tier 2 visas, outsourcing, and so on, but we are talking about these UK issues like what is happening here is special. The world economy outside of the USA is doing really quite badly at the moment. Govts have collapsed in Germany, France, Canada, Japan, South Korea.

[SussexSeagull]

I do think outsourcing being more prevalent due to cheaper solutions available than expensive contractors.

They can agree SLAs, perhaps cheaper than paying agencies for workers were they are gambling on the quality of resource.

You say expensive but it depends on the project. If you need one person for three months then contractors are still competitive. If you need a (now virtual) floor full of developers foe two years then a consultancy is the way to go.

Which to me is the blg change over the last few years. Companies weren't afraid to resource large projects with contractors. They are now.

[SchumiStars]

I do think outsourcing being more prevalent due to cheaper solutions available than expensive contractors.

They can agree SLAs, perhaps cheaper than paying agencies for workers were they are gambling on the quality of resource.

[SussexSeagull]

Jobs have been outsourced for years, people being remote has had zero impact on the state of the market in my opinion. Since circa 2020 companies were also giving more work to consultancies because they couldn't be arsed with the complexities of IR35. So that led to more outsourcing.

Offshoring and the consultancies do have an overlap.

[avonleigh]

Jobs have been outsourced for years, people being remote has had zero impact on the state of the market in my opinion. Since circa 2020 companies were also giving more work to consultancies because they couldn't be arsed with the complexities of IR35. So that led to more outsourcing.

[SussexSeagull]

No they wouldn't, they would accelerate their efforts to outsource the work to the indians etc.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wapping_dispute

This is it. The Government can control Visas but they can't realistically stop outsourcing.

I had some success working with SME who probably couldn't make the economies of scale of outsourcing work for them, although I have been out since May last year. That said the interviews I have had have been in that space.

[GJABS]

If the UK workforce.demanded office based jobs then at least the companies would be forced into recruitment from the UK in the main. Which would then create demand and wage rises.

No they wouldn't, they would accelerate their efforts to outsource the work to the indians etc.

We are like the print workers who went on strike in 1986 to try to force Rupert Murdoch to keep us employed on the Mirror newspaper when he replaced us with modern printing methods that were much cheaper than we were with the move to Wapping.

And we don't even have the unions on our side (not that I would recommend that).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wapping_dispute

[SussexSeagull]

TBF, I do agree with you on some aspects. But then what do we do with all the office space in London, some of it, very expensive?

Yes, some can be turned into residential flat but the costs involved are usually massive, paid for by the owners and landlords.

Shirley, there is a financial hit that someone is bearing, including all of the associated taxes, utilities, travel costs that companies pay.

The government is loosing loads of cash with everyone working from home. All the coffee shops, the trains, the pubs are taking less cash, therefore less taxation.

Office based employment is a massive economic driver for the designated town, city and country.

Friday!

With kind regards, SchumiStars.

This is all true but companies are only interested in saving money to increase profits. They don't really care about the local coffee shops (unless they are landlords or letting agents).

My last two contracts were in Newham, which is remote by London standards, and St Neots, which is remote by anyone's standards.

[Bluenose]

outsourcing aside, I think the rot really started in the City+Docklands when companies realised:

a) all their IT kit (i.e. their business) needs to be located outside of potential high risk buildings to avoid terrorist and other threats leading to....

b) people like the NYSE located their exchange in Bracknell rather than, Manhattan (I know its not entirely accurate but its accurate enough) leading to...

c) the IT systems that generated the revenue no longer being located with the IT teams leading to...

d) Said technology then moving into 'the cloud' leading to...

e) IT people being able to work anywhere covered under regulatory and risk reach on cloud assets that could be anywhere (within limits) leading to....

f) A percieved 'un-coupling' by Business people between the IT assets generating the business revenue and the IT people assets responsible for those assets leading to....

g) A further 'un-coupling' of the IT assets and the business people generating the revenue. i.e. banks running their front-offices from locations where it is cheaper but there are also less distractions and less crime e.g HSBC, Deustche Bank, Goldman moving people to Birmingham, Poland etc.

This decoupling can be tracked directly to the demise of the IT London jobs market and the lifestyle you describe. Tax cuts and deregulation won't reverse that, they may reverse the overall decline of City+Docklands as a place to do business but the lifestyle we used to enjoy from 1994-2012 (approx.) has gone forever.

I mentioned it before but we are talking 10-12 years after the fact, its been a slow grind down in London to where the London IT market is now, its taken years but its finally making people permanently unemployable unless they move locations.

[SussexSeagull]

Not at all, its a good Friday afternoon topic

There are a few answers to your points:

a) I know for a fact that many people who want your help outside of London won't employ people that live in London due to fears that you will ditch a Manchester, Liverpool, Birmingham etc. based role just so you can work in London again

So that is one problem you face, the market may have shifted and left you looking like a relic from 2008. You should be jogging around Salford Quays (M50) not Surrey Quays (SE16) in 2025. Sell your London house and leave for somewhere else.

b) UK/EU Companies are restricted to moving no more than around 75%-80% of their staff out of the EU and so to the point about 'making London great again' 80% of the jobs went to Eastern Europe, India, 10% left the M25 belt to be spread around lower cost locations in the UK and 10% were left inside London which leads to.....

c) As an IT person, the people you are dealing with, now, in 2025 are likely in a dozen locations in the UK, EU, ROW meaning that.....

d) The only way to do your job effectively is to be glued on MS Teams for 5 days a week.

What you will find if you walk into an office now, that has enforced a 'back to office' policy is a bunch of people sat starting at laptops running MS Teams looking like they belong in a call-centre. This is an oxymoron because infact they are not back in the office because the office is inside MS Teams on your laptop, the office has ceased to be a physical building where you all congregate and share ideas inside an air conditioned, glass house, it has been shrunk into your laptop.

No amount of back to office policy can un-invent MS Teams and the laptop and no amount of back to office policy will make that new normal more cost or CO2 efficient other than, simply accepting this is the new normal and just allowing people to use an office only when it is sensible to do so.

It should be noted Londoners tend not to cope when visiting the provinces. They tend to going into withdrawal if they are more than five minutes from an independent coffee shop.

Part of the idea behind the London Docklands was the back office services were moved out of the very expensive City of London and let them just have a small front office to see clients and keep the City address. What is happening now is just the logical continuation of that. Plus a lot of these companies are international so don't feel obliged to keep work in the UK.

[SussexSeagull]

If the UK workforce.demanded office based jobs then at least the companies would be forced into recruitment from the UK in the main. Which would then create demand and wage rises.

If we all sit at home and ask for previous high day rates then the only people to suffer is us, as the companies will just outsource the work and close the offices saving costs all round.

I can understand why people want to work from home, I personally can do more cycling, running with all of the commute time saved. But I don't think we can have high rates. It's one or the other.

Either we all work from home on low rates or work in the office on high rates. As previously said, I do love being in an office.

Why do I want to be home all day? It's makes people (physically) lazy. Which in turn is not good for our health.

Just been running, I hate the cold and then rememberd all the times when I was in the office and regardless of the weather still got my daily run done.

I had a good contract that gave me flexibility, I used to run from Charing cross to Canary Wharf and back. 13.1miles/1:28, almost daily.

The facts of the matter is the world has changed, although it might be changing back a bit if people are having to go back to the office.

People need to make a personal decision if they want to travel to an office to work, either on a hybrid or full time basis. As for jobs going offshore, that was happening anyway. There was a trend towards it 15 years ago but the customer service tended to be poor so there was a lot of reshoring. I suspect in the interim they learnt their lesson and have improved on that score.

I have never worked in the City (although worked around it so know the geography) but I get the impression it isn't the epicentre of software development contracting anymore, especially with the move to Inside IR35.