UKIP!

[sasguru]

Your link says



Students are not settling here. Most workers are not settling here.



No I'm not. I'm saying that most of the 500,000 are only here for a couple of years, not settling. I would define settling as setting up on a permanent or semi-permanent basis. Clearly in your mind anything more than a two week holiday counts.



No, I'm saying there is a grey area between a flying visit and setting up life permanently that about half of this 500,000 figure falls into.

The ONS have a breakdown of the people leaving. It's table 4 in the excel dataset you can download. About 110,000 non-british former immigrants who originally came here for work leave per year. Those people didn't settle. Around 70,000 non-british students leave per year. Those people didn't settle. About another 40,000 non-british people who came here for some other reason (with a spouse, or no reason given) leave per year. Those people didn't settle either. That's 220,000 foreign people a year who come here and stay for a bit but don't settle here.

The ONS figures run from year to year and are concerned with people who are here for some time so of course they are going to show different people arriving and leaving. Most students are going to be here for 3 years, and many migrant workers come for more than a year.



Not unless you define settling as anything longer than a fortnights holiday I'm not talking about net migration at all, I'm simply pointing out that most of the 500,000 people who come here don't settle. By saying that 500,000 people settle here you are basically saying that literally everybody who comes here settles here, and that is clearly not true of a significant number of them.



This is distorted because you are including British people who emigrate to Oz or the US. Most international emigrants (>90% of them) are returning from whence they came.

https://www.gov.uk/government/upload...r68-report.pdf



and most of them weren't here for very long

Why bother? he isn't interested in the facts,even assuming he was capable of digesting them.
But like most cretins he will keep on digging.

[doodab]

What I find interesting is the number of people who didn't want to vote for any of the main parties but didn't want to vote for UKIP either. The greens have nearly doubled their number of councillors and there are quite a few more independents coming through as well.

[speling bee]

Why bother? he isn't interested in the facts,even assuming he was capable of digesting them.
But like most cretins he will keep on digging.

It's got pretty bad round here recently.

[Brussels Slumdog]

BTW that 500,000 figure includes British citizens returning from abroad. The true inflow of foreigners coming here is about 450,000.

I return every monday so when my contract ends after 6 months then statistically that 26 people returning.

[minestrone]

Let's be honest, it would not be the highlight of your day if you were told Romanians were moving in next door.

[vetran]

BTW that 500,000 figure includes British citizens returning from abroad. The true inflow of foreigners coming here is about 450,000.

the choice of the word settling was the ONS & BBC. I defer to their judgement not assume I know better.

You keep talking about net inflow. Farage & I are talking about the people the ONS judge to be 'settling' which is 500,000.

As to the churn :

204,000 people were granted citizenship in 2013. So that many stay long term and bother to get citizenship. Or or do they just get the certificate to hang on the wall when they get back to India or China where most of them come from?


https://www.gov.uk/government/upload...2/hosb0910.pdf

150,000 leaving are UK citizens, 77,000 uk citizens arriving. so 73,000 net uk emigration. so only 150,000 non uk citizens are leaving. that leaves 423,000 non UK citizens arriving (500,000 - 77,000) and 150,000 non UK leaving. so 277,000 stay in some form of which 204,000 get citizenship.

I see that as nearly two thirds of non UK citizens arrivals stay and nearly half get citizenship or is there some magic I'm missing? The figures are fairly typical immigration figures with previous years even if inflow is little lower.

EU migration is covered but as there was no entry or exit counting its unlikely to be accurate.

sort of shoots down the idea that people pop in for a couple of years then go home. the Governments own figures suggest only a third go home each year.
of course they could be just popping in for a lifetime holiday. Or 5 million are popping home in 2018?



bark bark, oh its assguru.

[doodab]

the choice of the word settling was the ONS & BBC. I defer to their judgement not assume I know better.

You keep talking about net inflow. Farage & I are talking about the people the ONS judge to be 'settling' which is 500,000.

You keep saying that. I'm not. I haven't mentioned net figures at all. I'm talking about the total inflow. 450,000 is the figure from the ONS for the total number of non-British migrants into the UK in Y/E September 2013. This is the total number of people who came here in that period, not a net figure.

Here is a link to the actual data: http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/publicatio...cm%3A77-320515

As you can see there is no figure for those "settling" and the ONS don't appear to use the term, so Farage and you are presumably talking about the people you judge to be settling by taking a number (which it appears includes British citizens) for the total number of people entering Britain and disregarding the fact that many of them don't settle.

I don't know why you are bringing the BBC into it at all as nobody mentioned them.

As to the churn :

204,000 people were granted citizenship in 2013. So that many stay long term and bother to get citizenship. Or or do they just get the certificate to hang on the wall when they get back to India or China where most of them come from?

You can tell the difference between 204,000 and 500,000 can't you???

https://www.gov.uk/government/upload...2/hosb0910.pdf

150,000 leaving are UK citizens, 77,000 uk citizens arriving. so 73,000 net uk emigration. so only 150,000 non uk citizens are leaving. that leaves 423,000 non UK citizens arriving (500,000 - 77,000) and 150,000 non UK leaving. so 277,000 stay in some form of which 204,000 get citizenship.

It's a lot easier to use the figures for non UK citizens directly. You will need to look beyond the headlines at the actual data to do that but it's not hard. It's in table 1, or table 4 gives you a breakdown of the people leaving by original reason for coming. Around 170,000 non-British people leave per year and as can be seen from table 4 the vast majority of those are former immigrants.

I see that as nearly two thirds of non UK citizens arrivals stay and nearly half get citizenship or is there some magic I'm missing? The figures are fairly typical immigration figures with previous years even if inflow is little lower.

Yes, you seem to be missing the fact that the figures in the long term migration report are only concerned with people who stay over a year, by definition. Given that's what they are measuring it's hardly a big surprise that most of them stay more than a year is it. The point I am making is that the number who stay long term or get citizenship (i.e. "settle") is considerably lower than the 500,000 figure given by yourself and Farage, and all of the figures you have quoted support my point.

There is a separate report for people who stay less than 12 months BTW. You can find it here:

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/short-...ates/stim.html

sort of shoots down the idea that people pop in for a couple of years then go home. the Governments own figures suggest only a third go home each year.
of course they could be just popping in for a lifetime holiday. Or 5 million are popping home in 2018?

Right, so of the 450,000 people arriving a third go home (this is mostly within 4 years, as previously stated). That leaves how many staying longer? About 300,000. Is that more or less than 500,000? So how many people are settling? It's not 500,000 is it...

[speling bee]

Let's be honest, it would not be the highlight of your day if you were told Romanians were moving in next door.

They might be very nice. I'd be pretty peeved if a UKIP councillor was moving next door.

[tractor]

..

Except they don't. The half a million figure is the total number of people coming in to the UK, which includes both British people returning from abroad and the many foreigners who only stay for a short time. About 450,000 non-British people arrive and 180,000 move on every year, making the number of those "settling" somewhat closer to half the figure Mr Farage quoted.

Which is still far more than all the houses built annually or all the new school places created annually.

And people wonder why they can't get to see a GP?

From NHBC "A total of 67,422 new homes were registered in the first half of this year with the National House Building Council (NHBC), the sector’s non-profit insurance and standards body. That was the highest such figure since 2008"

I can't even find figures on new school places.

Whether you are UKIP or the world's most bleeding Liberal, no one can deny that we do not have the infastructure. As for letting more in because we have feckless, undereducated kids that won't work, well who's collective fault is that and shouldn't we do something about it first?

Of course there is a place for economic migration at every level but it has been out of control for decades. Jeez, the government don't even know how it works, the border agency is a waste of space and this government is as bad as the last one in this respect.

UKIP is not the answer, it is just a tactical weapon the disaffected electorate will beat their party of choice with. Nothing will ever change until you get a government with some backbone and the moral fortitude to start sticking up for this country and its' people. Thatcher made a good start in that respect but then she kind of went mad and since then, there has been no-one to take up the mantle. I don't see a single statesman in government for over 20 years, just self serving, educated-idiot career politicians, most of whom have seen nothing of the real world outside uni and some half assed policy think tank.

[d000hg]

Like fruit pickers? Most farmers will tell you that if they didn't have these particular low-level migrants the fruit and veg would rot in the fields.

Farmers will say whatever is in their best interest.