Europe

[Robinho]

The polls will change nearer the election.

I can't see how Labour can win with Ed the Brush in charge.

[BlasterBates]

There´s a general rule that split parties never get elected. If the conservatives want to get in they´ll have to unite, but that´s unlikely. Ed just needs to "do nothing" he doesn´t even have to propose a set of policies.

[DodgyAgent]

There´s a general rule that split parties never get elected. If the conservatives want to get in they´ll have to unite, but that´s unlikely. Ed just needs to "do nothing" he doesn´t even have to propose a set of policies.

Gay marriage is done with - out of the way. Unlike Europe or austerity policies it can now be put aside so the split will heal in time for the next election.

[BlasterBates]

Gay marriage is done with - out of the way. Unlike Europe or austerity policies it can now be put aside so the split will heal in time for the next election.

Exactly Europe, like split.

A future conservative government wouldn´t do anything other than argue within itself about Europe. This would basically just paralyse Britain for 5 years, cause tremendous uncertainty for businesses who would have no idea where the UK is going and probably provoke Scottish independence.

That is not going to get a majority.

The choice would be slightly higher taxes vs continuous international crisis with all our neighbours including the US.

[Robinho]

It'll also depend on the economy, which i don't personally foresee improving.

The Scottish referendum will fail in 2014 just before the election though, which might provide a falklands like boost to the incumbent.

[sasguru]

It'll also depend on the economy, which i don't personally foresee improving.

Hurrah, that means the economy will almost certainly improve

[DodgyAgent]

Exactly Europe, like split.

A future conservative government wouldn´t do anything other than argue within itself about Europe. This would basically just paralyse Britain for 5 years, cause tremendous uncertainty for businesses who would have no idea where the UK is going and probably provoke Scottish independence.

That is not going to get a majority.

The choice would be slightly higher taxes vs continuous international crisis with all our neighbours including the US.

Alternatively by calling a referendum on Europe the wind has been taken out of UKIP. The Eurosceptics have got what they want and if the country stays in then they will no longer be able to claim that they represent the views of the majority. Labour are caught cold because having promised a referendum in the last government are they going to refuse one one now?

[BlasterBates]

Alternatively by calling a referendum on Europe

We come back to the point about the split. Whilst David Cameron is in charge who is committed to Europe this won´t wash with UKIP voters.

That´s what I mean either they go full on in on Europe and get Labour voters or the go full on out of Europe in which case they would more or less get the UKIP support back.

What are you voting for when you vote Conservative pro-Europe or anti-Europe?

In the end being split will deter a sufficient number of voters who don´t like the unclear position.

[sasguru]

What will happen in 2015

The Uk economy will be the fastest growing in Europe, the Tories will unite when their backs are against the wall, Labour will be looking stupid when they too are forced to promise a referendum, UKIP supporters will vote Tory because of the referendum and because they hate Labour much more than the Tories.

But it's all about the economy, stupid.

Tories in with a majority.

[Robinho]

The UK will be growing faster than Germany sas?

A shock change of course!