Freak Weather due to Ice Caps melting

[kingcook]

according to research reported on the front page of that leftist rag, the Times. Exactly what I thought.
Meanwhile morons like DP and BB discount the evidence of their own eyes.

I blame the Chinese...

Beijing Weather Modification Office - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

[minestrone]

I hope it is freak weather, otherwise the British weather is going to be really tulip. Cold wet summers and even colder winters. Most people have jackets on this evening, and not because it's raining. In mid summer.

This is normal for us.

Maybe the gulf stream could move a bit further south, I hear it has been a marvelous summer in the Western Isles and some crops are failing due to the lack of rain.

[pjclarke]

Climate models would be more impressive if they could predict these kinds of effects in advance, rather than explaining things afterwards.

Oh, do keep up. Climate models have an impressive record of correctly predicting changes to an array of climatic indicators, including generally higher temperatures, the rising tropopause, a cooling stratosphere, etc. The day on which they can pinpoint a flood in Dorset is still a long way off, but so what?

That human activity has increased the atmospheric burden of CO2 and other greenhouse gases by around a third is uncontroversial, that this will alter the radiative properties of the atmosphere such that the radiation returning to the surface is increased by around 1.6W per square meter is also well known. That all this extra heat in the climate system will increase the incidence of extreme weather events is pretty much a no-brainer however attributing an individual storm or flood to climate change is not possible - but imagine 2 dice loaded to roll sixes. You could not prove that any particular six was a consequence of the loading, any more than you could attribute an individual storm to climate change. But just as loaded dice throw more sixes ...

Anyhow, if your business depends on an accurate forecast of future weather, you tend to invest some time in examining the science ... Insurer Munich Re is just such a business and they report Munich Re - Number of weather extremes a strong indicator of climate change

globally, loss-related floods have more than tripled since 1980, and windstorm natural catastrophes more than doubled, with particularly heavy losses from Atlantic hurricanes. This rise cannot be explained without global warming.

Oh, and on the thread topic, a related note, models More cold and snowy winters to come - Det Internasjonale Polaråret 2007-2008 predicted the recent trend towards colder and snowy winters in Europe before it came to pass, based on a loss of Arctic ice.

Doing your homework, by which one does not mean reading the Mail Online 'Science' section, before posting will surely lead to a reduction in the amount of frankly embarrasing BOLLOCKS appearing here.

I hope.

[TimberWolf]

Oh, do keep up. Climate models have an impressive record of correctly predicting changes to an array of climatic indicators, including generally higher temperatures, the rising tropopause, a cooling stratosphere, etc. The day on which they can pinpoint a flood in Dorset is still a long way off, but so what?

That human activity has increased the atmospheric burden of CO2 and other greenhouse gases by around a third is uncontroversial, that this will alter the radiative properties of the atmosphere such that the radiation returning to the surface is increased by around 1.6W per square meter is also well known. That all this extra heat in the climate system will increase the incidence of extreme weather events is pretty much a no-brainer however attributing an individual storm or flood to climate change is not possible - but imagine 2 dice loaded to roll sixes. You could not prove that any particular six was a consequence of the loading, any more than you could attribute an individual storm to climate change. But just as loaded dice throw more sixes ...

Anyhow, if your business depends on an accurate forecast of future weather, you tend to invest some time in examining the science ... Insurer Munich Re is just such a business and they report Munich Re - Number of weather extremes a strong indicator of climate change


Oh, and on the thread topic, a related note, models More cold and snowy winters to come - Det Internasjonale Polaråret 2007-2008 predicted the recent trend towards colder and snowy winters in Europe before it came to pass, based on a loss of Arctic ice.

Doing your homework, by which one does not mean reading the Mail Online 'Science' section, before posting will surely lead to a reduction in the amount of frankly embarrasing BOLLOCKS appearing here.

I hope.

You're getting mighty full of yourself, which isn't unusual on here.

The statement wasn't that "The day on which they can pinpoint a flood in Dorset is still a long way off, but so what? ", it was that major weather trends for an entire country can't be predicted in advance. Predicting after the event is unimpressive, to put things kindly.

They could start by predicting which direction the jet stream will head, on which they have a 50/50 chance of being correct. That's not exactly a puddle in Dorset is it.

[BrilloPad]

I blame the Chinese...

Beijing Weather Modification Office - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

"More prominently, they were enlisted by the Chinese government to ensure that the 2008 Summer Olympics are free of rain"

Are they going to do the same in London 'summer' 2012 Olympics?

[BlasterBates]

You're getting mighty full of yourself, which isn't unusual on here.

The statement wasn't that "The day on which they can pinpoint a flood in Dorset is still a long way off, but so what? ", it was that major weather trends for an entire country can't be predicted in advance. Predicting after the event is unimpressive, to put things kindly.

They could start by predicting which direction the jet stream will head, on which they have a 50/50 chance of being correct. That's not exactly a puddle in Dorset is it.

One wonders if reports from Insurance companies are scientific.

Here is an example of a bad prediction

NoTricksZone: Not here to worship what is known, but to question it. Climate news from Germany in English – by P Gosselin

In Germany the climate got progessively drier over the 1990´s, and now the climate is getting progressively wetter. What springs to mind? Cycles.

In June there was 15% more rain than average, which kind of strikes me as being very normal really, not exactly an extreme is it. In spite of the abve average rainfall there hasn´t been any excessive flooding on the Rhein or Main for about a decade. One could argue this is a weather extreme, that the rainfall is´unusually evenly distributed to provide perfect conditions for the agriculture and natural habitats, which could of course be attributed to "climate disruption".

Of course we´re all aware of the predictions for more and worse hurricanes, and what happened in the meantime:

No Major U.S. Hurricane Hits This Season Would Set Record at Sixth Year - Bloomberg

Presumably this can be touted as a "weather extreme".

[kingcook]

"More prominently, they were enlisted by the Chinese government to ensure that the 2008 Summer Olympics are free of rain"

Are they going to do the same in London 'summer' 2012 Olympics?

It's being considered i believe.

Scientists Consider "Cloud Seeding" to Stop Rain During Olympics - YouTube

[Diver]

Once again the cycles of weather and global warming bring debate to the hallowed halls of cuk.

Sasguru is right, you are all wrong. I thought that fact had been settled long ago.

nuff said

[EternalOptimist]

The climate models are useless. Not only do they predict warming, when there has been none for 13 years, a hotspot in the troposhere that cannot be found, accelerating rises in sea levels when they have stabilised and may even be falling.
I dont really care that they get it wrong, thats the way humans operate and its the way science operates as well. What is wrong here is that policy is being based on a half baked discredited theory, and the fanatics that support the theory are using every dirty trick in the book to make sure those policies are implemented.
I guess it wont be untill the general public see something tangible like massive hikes in energy costs, or power cuts that they will start to take notice

meanwhile the desalination plants in Australia stand idle, the hosepipe ban in England has been lifted and Tuvalu remains stubborly above water

[TimberWolf]

Once again the cycles of weather and global warming bring debate to the hallowed halls of cuk.

Sasguru is right, you are all wrong. I thought that fact had been settled long ago.

nuff said

And by implication you aren't? This issue is sufficiently complex that everyone can be wrong.