Unemployment

[jamesbrown]

It's probably quite hard to see the industrial revolution when you're inside it, and there are a lot of wild opinions from vested interests, but if you don't think AI is going to replace (not merely increase the productivity of, but replace) a ton of sophisticated white collar jobs relatively soon, then you are probably hoping for the best against reason.

Oh, and manual jobs including trades probably aren't too far behind

https://x.com/XH_Lee23/status/2023387529135988951

[Protagoras]

In the limit, AI plus robots will mean that there are no jobs. So no one will have any money to buy things, including food. When there is no demand, robots will be unemployed.

The government will have no money because no one works and pays tax. Before that, they'll probably tax AI and robots.

Eventually, government will confiscate private wealth, then self-destruct.

Only those capable of self-sufficiency will survive, if there's any point.

Probably better off being doomed, really.

[jamesbrown]

In the limit, AI plus robots will mean that there are no jobs. So no one will have any money to buy things, including food. When there is no demand, robots will be unemployed.

The government will have no money because no one works and pays tax. Before that, they'll probably tax AI and robots.

Eventually, government will confiscate private wealth, then self-destruct.

Only those capable of self-sufficiency will survive, if there's any point.

Probably better off being doomed, really.

There were a lot of the same arguments around at the start of the industrial revolution. No massive transitions like this are pain-free, but they are, fortunately, much bigger than governments.

[DoctorStrangelove]

^^^ The Industrial Revolution took decades. AI is apparently rivalling and surpassing the rate of change of those "internet years" we used to hear about 25 years ago.

And once it's self aware the human race is intercoursed and not in A Good Way.

In the limit, AI plus robots will mean that there are no jobs. So no one will have any money to buy things, including food. When there is no demand, robots will be unemployed.

The government will have no money because no one works and pays tax. Before that, they'll probably tax AI and robots.

Eventually, government will confiscate private wealth, then self-destruct.

Only those capable of self-sufficiency will survive, if there's any point.

Probably better off being doomed, really.

Baked beans and shotguns here we come (if you want to live ).

[tazdevil]

Certainly, AI can produce new insight by recombination and by experimentation.

True but it takes a human to understand the usefulness of any such insight Things evolve and AI is just another tool / step along in that evolution for us. What we have is a demographic problem not an AI one. AI may accelerate, or not, finding the solution to the demographic problem. Personally I think the end of the 21st century will be a period of warfare to cull the overpopulation. Hollywood may actually have got some of this right!

[milanbenes]

apparently the same conversations happened with the introduction of the printing press and the weaving machine

what's different this time

the world will not end

people will find different roles

Milan.

[jamesbrown]

True but it takes a human to understand the usefulness of any such insight Things evolve and AI is just another tool / step along in that evolution for us. What we have is a demographic problem not an AI one. AI may accelerate, or not, finding the solution to the demographic problem. Personally I think the end of the 21st century will be a period of warfare to cull the overpopulation. Hollywood may actually have got some of this right!

If AI can produce insight, it can - by definition - understand the meaning of that insight because it needs some stopping criteria, a target or objective (that we give it... at least, initially ). As I said above, it's probably quite hard to know when you're inside a revolution, but the rapid progress of AI and robotics certainly looks like a revolution more than an evolution and, like others before it, this will probably cause massive upheaval with outcomes ranging from unknowable to fairly certain (of which an accelerating loss of white collar jobs is at the more predictable end - I mean, it's already happening).

[agentzero]

apparently the same conversations happened with the introduction of the printing press and the weaving machine

what's different this time

the world will not end

people will find different roles

Milan.

That's not what's being planned in by European governments. Significant underemployment is expected and will affect a range of professionals at all levels, including c-suite. It's all well suggesting people will find other roles, but is someone in the top 10% or 5% of earners going to be ok with working as a plumber or in a supermarket?

The planning I am seeing suggests there's going to be a significant increase in unemployment and the upheaval is going to badly affect the economy because people will stop spending. There are concerns across companies. US companies, as you have already seen, are already firing 10, 15, 20% of roles. If your role can be automated, it will.

Nonchalance isn't a plan.

[sadkingbilly]

like i said:

DOOMED!

[DoctorStrangelove]

Ssoooo, it's rock salt, then bird shot, then buck shot, then slugs. .

Anyone got a sabot handy whilst I pop around to t'mill? Askin' for a friend, like. .