What will the coming recession mean for the contractor job market?

[VirginiaWoolf]

Hi,
Interested to hear how people think contractor job market will be impacted by the impending recession. Just been talking to a colleague who's thinking of going perm and those aren't words I ever thought I'd hear him say, so that got me thinking. That said, the reason I switched to contracting is that I found perm meant nothing of the sort. Any thoughts?
Cheers.

[_V_]

Rishi will have a special treat for UK contractors, "Eat nowt, heat nowt, to help out"

[vetran]

Well online Punjabi courses will be popular.

[Protagoras]

Assume that, in general, businesses will be less likely to invest in new projects in an economy where there is falling aggregate demand. There will be 'must do' projects but I'd expect discretionary spend to fall.
Also, I'd not expect government spending to pick up the slack, given current policy direction, so no giant infrastructure projects kicking off.

I speculate that:-

Commodity contractors, under OPW rules, will need to take what they can get at the going rate. I would expect this rate to fall as labour supply increases (e.g. redundant permies enter the contingent labour market, older folks un-retire). Commodity contractors are also vulnerable to substitution by off-shore resources.

Specialist / niche contractors, generally outside OPW, should still be able to demand good rates, simply because of limited supply of skills.

I would expect those in the middle ground to find the market more challenging with a drift to the commodity end. Many may simply give up participation in the UK market.

I have certainly worked in places where contingent workers outlived permies, so I do agree that permiedom is not necessarily a safer place.

[Fraidycat]

Rate cuts of between 20 and 40%.

Long times on the bench.

More contractors going Perm.

Most desperate contractors taking fixed term permie roles, 6 or 12 months.. permie salaries pro rated.

[SueEllen]

And all those with an EU passport fecking off.

[Protagoras]

And all those with an EU passport fecking off.

Yes, there is the anticipated general economic recession and then there's the 'special recession operation' targeted at UK contractors.

[Zigenare]

Get yourself a contract in the defence industries - we're going to war!

[vetran]

Yet yourself a contract in the defence industries - we're going to war!

sadly we may well be.

[Whorty]

Was boom time 2008 onwards .... recessions should be good for skilled contractors. I started contracting in 2007 and was never out of contractor ...
fill ya boots!