Wine Time Friday

[BR14]

the man is honourless liar and will do anything to stay in power.

a russian then, eh? like your mate vlad.

[hobnob]

If the rules were good enough to get Ferguson fired for visting his lover then they should be good enough to fire Boris the Liar and all people who attended those parties.

Yeah, there's an interesting chain:

* May 2020: Dr Neil Ferguson resigned from SAGE after his girlfriend had visited him at home on 2 occasions. Matt Hancock (health secretary) said that resigning was the right choice:
Matt Hancock says he backs any police action against Neil Ferguson | Coronavirus | The Guardian

* June 2021: Matt Hancock resigned after kissing his girlfriend in his office at work. Boris Johnson said that he was sorry to see Hancock go.
Matt Hancock quits as health secretary after breaking social distance guidance - BBC News

* Jan 2022: Boris Johnson apologised for attending a big gathering in the garden, with the excuse that he thought that it was a work event. He has not resigned.

[malvolio]

Fine . Let's have him resign over something that is in the greater scheme of things pretty trivial. And replace him with whom....?

As for lying he and others are saying he has not yet done so, and won't until the inquiry reports its findings. They may yet agree with his view or blame the organisers or say that he was actually lyng. Let's wait and see before we dig out the tumbrells.

[hobnob]

In the short term, if Johnson resigns then another Conservative MP will take over as Prime Minister. That will be a decision for the other Conservative MPs; I doubt that description applies to anyone here, so it's not up to us. In the longer term, we'll see what happens at the next general election.

I don't think that the inquiry is going to give a definitive answer either way about whether he should resign. I've read a couple of good blog posts about that (written by a lawyer):
Some thoughts about the Sue Gray investigation – The Law and Policy Blog (davidallengreen.com)
A critical, general overview of the Sue Gray investigation – The Law and Policy Blog (davidallengreen.com)

"Even without looking at the the terms of reference, we can know the following: (a) Gray cannot make a determination as to whether there is criminal liability, as she is not a court; (b) Gray cannot make an independent assessment of the application of non-legal guidance to her colleagues as she is not independent; and (c) she cannot determine whether the prime minister or another minister is in breach of the ministerial code, as she is not the prime minister."

Really, the question of whether he broke the law should be a matter for the police (and later a court), so I'm disappointed that they're refusing to investigate. I think that applies equally to any other MP, e.g. if Keir Starmer was also going to parties during lockdown then he should face consequences too. That said, I think it's fair to hold the people who make the rules to a higher standard (i.e. they should lead by example).

[malvolio]

In the short term, if Johnson resigns then another Conservative MP will take over as Prime Minister. That will be a decision for the other Conservative MPs; I doubt that description applies to anyone here, so it's not up to us. In the longer term, we'll see what happens at the next general election.

Which is three years away at the moment, plenty of time to get away from the current issues. But that aside, there are two serious contenders, a shouty woman with a dream of being the second Thatcher or a vanishing chancellor who is the only cabinet member not to support his fellows... Go figure.

I don't think that the inquiry is going to give a definitive answer either way about whether he should resign. I've read a couple of good blog posts about that (written by a lawyer):
Some thoughts about the Sue Gray investigation – The Law and Policy Blog (davidallengreen.com)
A critical, general overview of the Sue Gray investigation – The Law and Policy Blog (davidallengreen.com)

"Even without looking at the the terms of reference, we can know the following: (a) Gray cannot make a determination as to whether there is criminal liability, as she is not a court; (b) Gray cannot make an independent assessment of the application of non-legal guidance to her colleagues as she is not independent; and (c) she cannot determine whether the prime minister or another minister is in breach of the ministerial code, as she is not the prime minister."

Really, the question of whether he broke the law should be a matter for the police (and later a court), so I'm disappointed that they're refusing to investigate. I think that applies equally to any other MP, e.g. if Keir Starmer was also going to parties during lockdown then he should face consequences too. That said, I think it's fair to hold the people who make the rules to a higher standard (i.e. they should lead by example).

Yes, of course they should. No argument there. But the Tories may consider that if they lose Johnson then they may well not win the next election, especially if Starmer suddenly discovers a brain, since he is the one that is getting them through the pandemic with a series of successes and he is the one that won the last election by a huge margin. To throw away that advantage for the sake of political point scoring and some suspect rabble rousing would be foolish. Then again, foolishness is something of a Tory specialisation!

My guess is that the inquiry will be equivocal, some senior civil servants will be relegated to DVLA and Johnson does his Teflon man act yet again

[hobnob]

Just as a minor nitpick, the next general election is due by May 2024:
General elections - UK Parliament
So, closer to 2 years than 3, and I'd be surprised if it actually gets left that long.

[SueEllen]

Tory MPs email boxes are full of angry emails.

Bojo's own seat majority is 7,210

If he stays the opposite parties will work out which one has the best chance of overturning his seat and work towards it.

[AtW]

He needs to do something radical to change this deeply damaging narrative, perhaps a new child with somebody on a side?

Purely statistically this is overdue to happen anyway

[malvolio]

Tory MPs email boxes are full of angry emails.

Bojo's own seat majority is 7,210

If he stays the opposite parties will work out which one has the best chance of overturning his seat and work towards it.

Thing is, it would have to be someone with a hell of a public profile to overturn him at a GE. That said, Uxbridge and surrounds is hardly the heartland of Conservative support, so anything is possible.

[courtg9000]

Thing is, it would have to be someone with a hell of a public profile to overturn him at a GE. That said, Uxbridge and surrounds is hardly the heartland of Conservative support, so anything is possible.

I have heard that he is not universally liked by his local party association and apparently is only ever seen in the constituency when he thinks it absolutely unavoidable.