Covid - actually Boris may emerge as vaguely competent.

[ladymuck]

For thems that like stats, here some more for you to poke through.

A statistical report showing the impact of COVID-19 on the immigration system, up to April 2021

This page brings together documents relating to published statistics on the immigration system and passenger arrivals since the COVID-19 outbreak.

[northernladuk]

But many of the countries near us on the list are far less affluent and do not have our health/medical/science infrastructure. Poland for instance was a long way behind but then had a dreadful wave and caught up quickly while we were vaccinating.

That's very true and (i didn't check properly) but the countries more dense above us don't seem to be struggling like some with deaths per millions. A lot of 'yeah buts' and counter arguments to be sure but still, it's still looks like we've done OK

[d000hg]

That's very true and (i didn't check properly) but the countries more dense above us don't seem to be struggling like some with deaths per millions. A lot of 'yeah buts' and counter arguments to be sure but still, it's still looks like we've done OK

There is also the issue with non-reported deaths. We know that deaths in India might be anywhere 2-10X higher than reported for instance though they are a special case (I think). Of course how countries classify Covid deaths varies somewhat but I don't believe that makes a statistically important difference.

[d000hg]

As more and more data comes out, it actually looks like lock downs and responses have very little effect on the progress of the virus unless you are an Aus or New Zealand

comparison of the states in the US that took harder measures versus those with a leave it up to the individual method - the outcomes are roughly the same

At the end of the day viruses do what they do and you'll still end up with the same amount of dead at the end of it - it just changes whether it happens quickly or whether you drag it out

The data shows that's fairly obviously untrue. Covid has a mortality rate of maybe 1% so that would be ~650k deaths in the UK. We are nowhere near that.
Over time, treatments mean the mortality rate is significantly lower - if you get it now you are far more likely to survive - and of course if you avoid it until vaccination things improve hugely in your risk stats.
Not to mention that one major point of lockdowns is to avoid hospitals being inundated because if you can't get treatment when seriously ill, you are far more likely to die. The moment you have too many serious cases, the mortality rate spikes and a lot more people die... see oxygen shortages in India and Brazil.

So even if we say all you're doing is delaying exposure to Covid and spreading the peak out, it still demonstrably saves lives by reducing probability of dying when you get it.
I'm not sure the comparison in the USA is too valid. You cannot directly compare states as being the same except for their Covid responses, each state is essentially a different country. It's like saying every country in the EU is the same.

[ladymuck]

I would love to know what the government's 'definition of done' is.

What targets are they aiming for that will allow a return to something that looks like normality? The previous targets seem to have been and gone and glossed over and I think it's unreasonable to keep moving the goal posts.

I don't think they (or SAGE or any of the other advisory bodies) have a clear idea of what 'done' is and that worries me a heck a of a lot.

[Scoobos]

Jesus , some of the posts here.

It's not a competition and of course we've had FAR more deaths than was necessary - we are also a PRIMARY producer of the vaccine.

Want a direct comparison to the uk? Japan .

We had a head start, we saw Italy - to use it in comparison is crazy talk, they were the first to be overwhelmed.

Boris is on youtube, gov uk - 3rd Feb PM speech pretty much spelling out what they were going to do.

We are also discussing this on the day that Michael Gove gets a self isolation warning, which he is NOT going to adhere to - instead "choosing" to just daily test , in order to pilot "Ideas of not having to self isolate" - with a picture of him, in Porto , with his arm around a random Chelsea fan.

So on the eve of "reopening" we've ANOTHER minister, making up his own set of rules and effectively saying he doesn't need to listen to the Covid app that only 20% or so of the population actually have active each day.

We've also Matt Wanksock saying "the vaccine works against the Delta variant" when its 33% effective after one dose and 60% on two - when we've people basically training this bloody virus for 12 weeks between jabs.

What was it whitty said? "There is a risk of an escape mutant, but its slim" Slim eh? How many so far?

We have not "done good" and comparing us now, after effectively doing all the things we criticised others for doing - to other countries deaths per 100 is a sick fudging of numbers.

It is clear to everyone in healthcare that the DHSC and government have failed us, but that's not new.

Final part of my rant - whats really getting my goat now, is Boris in world health meetings saying we need "Global Co-operation" to beat pandemics, paying Oxford with taxpayers money to make a drug thats cost effective and can be distributed to poor countries - then not doing it.

"WE" (as western affluent countries) - should be working with Covac, WHO etc to vaccinate the WORLD population at an even level, not our own and then let it run rampant in other countries with tiny vaccination rates. Only luck and chance have had us not "waste" AZ vaccines on youth , because it could harm them - not for any actual scientific or humanitarian reason.

[Gibbon]

It is curious why we were so hard hit despite a quite obese population and good health service.

Covid-19 has made the obesity epidemic worse, but failed to ignite enough action | The BMJ

People under 60 years old with a BMI between 30 and 34 are twice as likely to be admitted to intensive care with covid-19 than those with a lower BMI.

[d000hg]

Covid-19 has made the obesity epidemic worse, but failed to ignite enough action | The BMJ

People under 60 years old with a BMI between 30 and 34 are twice as likely to be admitted to intensive care with covid-19 than those with a lower BMI.

Interesting but deaths in the under 60s is a pretty miniscule proportion o(don't have stats to hand). I would assume though this carries over into the older age brackets? Although you don't see many fat octogenarians - not sure if that's because they all died, or because your body just stops being fat after a certain age?

[vetran]

Jesus , some of the posts here.

It's not a competition and of course we've had FAR more deaths than was necessary - we are also a PRIMARY producer of the vaccine.

Want a direct comparison to the uk? Japan .

We had a head start, we saw Italy - to use it in comparison is crazy talk, they were the first to be overwhelmed.

Boris is on youtube, gov uk - 3rd Feb PM speech pretty much spelling out what they were going to do.

We are also discussing this on the day that Michael Gove gets a self isolation warning, which he is NOT going to adhere to - instead "choosing" to just daily test , in order to pilot "Ideas of not having to self isolate" - with a picture of him, in Porto , with his arm around a random Chelsea fan.

So on the eve of "reopening" we've ANOTHER minister, making up his own set of rules and effectively saying he doesn't need to listen to the Covid app that only 20% or so of the population actually have active each day.

We've also Matt Wanksock saying "the vaccine works against the Delta variant" when its 33% effective after one dose and 60% on two - when we've people basically training this bloody virus for 12 weeks between jabs.

What was it whitty said? "There is a risk of an escape mutant, but its slim" Slim eh? How many so far?

We have not "done good" and comparing us now, after effectively doing all the things we criticised others for doing - to other countries deaths per 100 is a sick fudging of numbers.

It is clear to everyone in healthcare that the DHSC and government have failed us, but that's not new.

Final part of my rant - whats really getting my goat now, is Boris in world health meetings saying we need "Global Co-operation" to beat pandemics, paying Oxford with taxpayers money to make a drug thats cost effective and can be distributed to poor countries - then not doing it.

"WE" (as western affluent countries) - should be working with Covac, WHO etc to vaccinate the WORLD population at an even level, not our own and then let it run rampant in other countries with tiny vaccination rates. Only luck and chance have had us not "waste" AZ vaccines on youth , because it could harm them - not for any actual scientific or humanitarian reason.

As pointed out the USA, Belgium and France are near our situation on deaths per capita are they totally incompetent as well?

Two points about covax

A governments first responsibility is to protect its people. When we get near full vaccination and have surplus then by all means turn some over. If of course the EU hasn't blocked them.

AZ vaccine production is licenced ,currently at cost, so poorer countries can obtain vaccines from countries with say active space programmes. India is the home to the world's largest vaccine production facilities, China presumably has a few maybe Africa can build some? They are currently producing vaccine in quantity for poorer countries thanks to the licence we the UK granted.


note here the most widely used vaccine in covax is astra zeneca driven presumably by the not for profit license after development funded by the UK.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-55795297



Maybe Covax should push other manufacturers to offer a not for profit license? We worked smarter not harder.

[AtW]

We will soon find out how Vauxhall-Zeneca compares to mRNA “ML63” vaccines