R>1

[mattster]

It doesn't look to me like the connection between cases and hospitalisations is anywhere near as strong.

The connection is definitely weaker - looks very roughly between 5-10x weaker than before - but the sheer number of cases coming up might still put us in an uncomfortable place. There's no getting away from the fact that what we are doing in this country now is an experiment, and the outcome is uncertain. I just hope the selection pressure of lots of cases circulating in a heavily vaccinated environment doesn't breed an even more vaccine resistant variety, because then we really are screwed.

[d000hg]

Raw data from https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/download, showing admissions scaled 10X, latest data.
It doesn't look to me like the connection between cases and hospitalisations is anywhere near as strong.

f

[AtW]

https://www.ft.com/content/9d7c5a19-...7-92571979c878

[SueEllen]

There is no question one can still transmit when vaccinated - the question is what %-tage does it, this %-tage seems to be getting lower with variants and/or reduced social distancing.

Just walked past restaurant that was fully packed

Then next week ping ping ping ping....

[mattster]

There is no question one can still transmit when vaccinated - the question is what %-tage does it, this %-tage seems to be getting lower with variants and/or reduced social distancing.

All will be revealed over the next couple of months. Fingers crossed!

[AtW]

There is still the question of whether you can still transmit it even if you've been vaccinated.

There is no question one can still transmit when vaccinated - the question is what %-tage does it, this %-tage seems to be getting lower with variants and/or reduced social distancing.

Just walked past restaurant that was fully packed

[northernladuk]

There is still the question of whether you can still transmit it even if you've been vaccinated. As far as I am aware the studies are inconclusive as to whether the vaccine reduces transmittion. I believe the Covid vaccine is an 'effective' solution which stops it attacking your body and if it does it decreases the effects. It's not a sterlising solution where your body kills the infection so can't pass it on. Unless I'm mistaken it's still possible to have the virus on you and pass it on even though it's not attacking your body.

So in theory that one person can enter a packed pub of old people, pass it on to them with no effect but that old person can still pass it around until someone who isn't vaccinate cops a faceful.

[northernladuk]

I mean pubs are restricting you 6 to a table but then every table is full for the football so is it really making much difference in poorly ventilated spaces? And people in their 6s are not distanced in the least so if you with 5 mates and one of you has it, it's a high chance several
of you will catch it even if other tables don't

Yep I always said the same. My other half is a primary teacher and they have the classrooms set out with a group of up to 8 kids around a table and they can see when flu/colds are doing the rounds one table will be missing a few bodies not just one at each table so the bubble per table does actually work so is a bit of a halfway house between going out and not spreading to everyone. Obviously they spread it in the playground etc but the groups around a table does work better than nothing.

Clubs are an interesting one. Very crowded but typically very dominated by the young. Who are the ones who don't seem to be following restrictions in the first place. Keep away from the young!

Agree with that also but again the clubs/pubs on friday night are the same thing. That said a club is actually better as they tend to bea bit bigger than a pub/winebar where it's shoulder to shoulder but still, it's going to go round like wildfire if someone is infected.

[mattster]

I mean pubs are restricting you 6 to a table but then every table is full for the football so is it really making much difference in poorly ventilated spaces? And people in their 6s are not distanced in the least so if you with 5 mates and one of you has it, it's a high chance several
of you will catch it even if other tables don't

Yeah, who knows? Even if the rate of contagion stays broadly the same, going from approx 1/3 capacity to full capacity trebles the potential number of infected right there! And I suspect at least a somewhat higher chance of getting infected, as well.

[d000hg]

I guess the biggest changes on freedom day are going to be pubs and clubs. At least its not winter, so perhaps pubs won't be as packed inside as they might be...

I mean pubs are restricting you 6 to a table but then every table is full for the football so is it really making much difference in poorly ventilated spaces? And people in their 6s are not distanced in the least so if you with 5 mates and one of you has it, it's a high chance several
of you will catch it even if other tables don't

Clubs are an interesting one. Very crowded but typically very dominated by the young. Who are the ones who don't seem to be following restrictions in the first place. Keep away from the young!