economic crisis death toll

[vetran]

And then there's this...

As per Coak's link we have little choice but to close down.

Now how we protect and recover the economy is going to be important.

supporting those unable to work is going to be a real challenge, we have closed most of the businesses that make money for the treasury or employ people.

[vetran]

Indeed. I just don't think the "Let-It-Take-It's-Course" camp have really thought this through.

I have a feeling that they think that "I'll be alright and I might be able to pick-up a cheap house at the end"

The Ukrainian one ( MasterBait? ) ... most likely his parents are in Kiev, so what's the cost to him?

But the idea that we, as a nation, should sit here as the death-toll rises to 1,000 - 2,000 people per day for months on end and try and carry on as if nothing is happening is laughable.

well said

[xoggoth]

OK. I have to ask. Why?

The days before we have what we have now...

You have to consider that most of what we take for granted are luxuries. We managed for years without Broadband, Mobile phones, Central heating, 4 cars per family, holiday abroad, colour TV, Sky, Netflix. All the luxuries that we come to take for granted these days.

So worst case we can go back to basics. If we turn off streaming/interweb, social media the country's power demands would plummet. Do we really need 34 types of beans on supermarket shelves?

Lots of things better off people don't really need for sure, but loss of jobs and businesses, big drops in pensions for those retiring shortly, social isolation and failure to address medical conditions will impact mental health, possibly drive suicides. The NHS pressures will also lead to slower responses to emergencies, poorer treatment of existing conditions and early diagnoses of potentially serious conditions. Emergency measures will also lead to pressures on police etc, allowing more crime to flourish.

While the OP is understating the seriousness of this outbreak, we still need to keep a balance.

[original PM]

Very informative video here .. using proper stats for nerds.

[WTFH]

Very informative video here .. using proper stats for nerds.

Haven't watched it yet. Is it where you get your "10 dead per week" from?

[Whorty]

That's exactly my point - it's a balancing act. On one end you let it rip through on a massive scale which would be at a tremendous cost, on the other end you completely shut down for 6 months which would kill the economy and probably cost a similar number of deaths over the coming years. In this situation I actually feel for the government (despite me hating the tories!)

It's a rock and a hard place for the government. If they do nothing they get criticized; if they do something they are criticized. I don't like BoJo and his pals, but I do feel for him in this situation as he cannot win.

The OP (in a messy way) does make some interesting points, and we will not truly know the outcome until it's all over and we can look back in hindsight. It would certainly be nice if simply locking down the economy, making people stay at home etc could remove the virus from circulating and save lives, but for every action there is a cost.

We're privileged as contractors; most of us have decent war chests and can survive for years without working (I've got at least 16 years of cash to live on), so it's easy for us to say, close everything down. but what about those millions who live on the edge, hand to mouth, every month?

As people get more desperate, there will be a bigger risk of social breakdown (riots, looting etc) that could result in loss of life. Financial issues is a big cause of suicide (mostly in men) and family breakdowns.

What is the payoff we're willing to make, between saving a few thousand from dying from the virus, compared to losing (maybe) a few thousand from financial and social issues?

We all have a view, none of us have an answer, but it's certainly easy from our ivory towers to preach a certain way as we can afford to. Not so easy for those much worse off than us.

[Whorty]

* How old are you?
50 this year. Wife recently turned 50

* How old are your parents?
My mom 70's. wife's Mom 80's. Both still work. My Mom is a contractor but has now decided to stop work for few months. Wife's Mom has decided she wants to continue working (only 2 mornings a week); she recons working is better for her mentally compared to isolation. She also says, by her working it reduces the time one of her younger colleagues spends in the office.

* Where do they/you live?
Wife and I live in a village in West England. My Mom a village in Hampshire. Wife's Mom Birmingham.

* Do any of your friends/family ( of any age ) have "underlying health issues"?

Yes. Wife is at advanced stage of a life limiting illness. I have asthma. Both our Mom's have typical older age complications. My brother also has a very significant illness (he's 50's now, but as a kid we were told he'd be lucky to see 30).

maybe, when you've grown up in poverty like we have we are more attuned to what those now living on the bread line are going through. I don't know....

[DealorNoDeal]

Has anyone seen any estimates for how many £trillions this will end up costing the economy?

[BrilloPad]

Has anyone seen any estimates for how many £trillions this will end up costing the economy?

I could guess if you want. But I am more worried about the human toll.

[vetran]

It's a rock and a hard place for the government. If they do nothing they get criticized; if they do something they are criticized. I don't like BoJo and his pals, but I do feel for him in this situation as he cannot win.

The OP (in a messy way) does make some interesting points, and we will not truly know the outcome until it's all over and we can look back in hindsight. It would certainly be nice if simply locking down the economy, making people stay at home etc could remove the virus from circulating and save lives, but for every action there is a cost.

We're privileged as contractors; most of us have decent war chests and can survive for years without working (I've got at least 16 years of cash to live on), so it's easy for us to say, close everything down. but what about those millions who live on the edge, hand to mouth, every month?

As people get more desperate, there will be a bigger risk of social breakdown (riots, looting etc) that could result in loss of life. Financial issues is a big cause of suicide (mostly in men) and family breakdowns.

What is the payoff we're willing to make, between saving a few thousand from dying from the virus, compared to losing (maybe) a few thousand from financial and social issues?

We all have a view, none of us have an answer, but it's certainly easy from our ivory towers to preach a certain way as we can afford to. Not so easy for those much worse off than us.

4 key things about the current measures

1. We have to flatten the "Sombrero" otherwise the NHS will collapse and deaths from COVID-19 & OTHER diseases will skyrocket without treatment.
2. We need to delay infections until we have a vaccine or lower cost (effort & money) treatments so the NHS doesn't collapse.
3. We currently have goodwill if we can maintain it a long closure may be effective, the usual suspects will be out stealing new new kicks soon, maybe we can shoot them? Sorry harsh but expected.
4. We need to make sure that our workers have some jobs to go back to as despair is a path to civil disobedience.