456 Positive Covid-19 in UK as of 11th March

[northernladuk]

Prediction is 43 million infected, 1.46 million dead (at the current rate of 3.4%)
We'll hit the limit on infections in about another 4 weeks, although if extra hygiene measures are in place, that might reduce the limit to around 30 million, and in 16 weeks time, with deaths reduced to under 1 million

Eh? At the top of Scotland there is a grey dot saying not hit yet under control measures they get it in 14+ weeks. Bet they aren't right pleased about that. They wouldn't have got it if there had been no control measures.

[minestrone]

I'm equally amazed at how the older generation - who didn't fight in world wars, but had free university education, free school meals, tax relief on their mortgages, etc, spend all the country's money and sold off anything of value - whether that was council housing, British gas or British gold - then blame young people for being annoyed that the country has been sold by those who freeloaded through life and have left young people burdened with the debt.

This really stands out as stupidity in a varying range of stupid from yourself.

Voted conservative in 79. so we are looking at anyone aged like 60 and over, got a degree, got school meals or free.

Could you please find me an opinion from a degree holding 60 year old plus that got school meals who is blaming "young people"?

[minestrone]

Prediction is 43 million infected, 1.46 million dead (at the current rate of 3.4%)
We'll hit the limit on infections in about another 4 weeks, although if extra hygiene measures are in place, that might reduce the limit to around 30 million, and in 16 weeks time, with deaths reduced to under 1 million

You defo got this right.

[WTFH]

You defo got this right.

Which bit is wrong, so far?

With no measures, it would be around 1.4 million (or as you lied, “2 million”)
With basic hygiene, drops to 900,000

With social distancing, drops to around 110,000

Like I said all along

[Whorty]

Which bit is wrong, so far?

With no measures, it would be around 1.4 million (or as you lied, “2 million”)
With basic hygiene, drops to 900,000

With social distancing, drops to around 110,000

Like I said all along

Really, you're asking which bits are wrong? How about all of it.

You suggested there would be 110,000 deaths with social distancing, and yet we've only had 34,000 to date with death rates reducing. And we've only faced this many deaths because we imported infected patients into care homes, which isn't exactly 'social distancing'.

We were never going to get 1.4 million deaths. The model that predicted that is flawed.

But, by all means keep scare mongering if you see the need, or you can look at the facts. Your choice.

[Gibbon]

And we've only faced this many deaths because we imported infected patients into care homes, which isn't exactly 'social distancing'.

As I've said elsewhere this is not as you make out. Care homes don't have take anyone from hospital, they can decline, obviously they didn't, and then didn't quarantine properly when they did.

[Whorty]

As I've said elsewhere this is not as you make out. Care homes don't have take anyone from hospital, they can decline, obviously they didn't, and then didn't quarantine properly when they did.

Whether they declined or not, the fact is that infected patients were imported into an environment which is enclosed and is surely a high risk location for the spread of viruses. I'm not saying the NHS are at fault for sending the patients back, or the care homes are at fault for not rejecting them (others can apportion blame as they see fit), but the fact that this happened in itself increased the number of infections and deaths in the UK.

[WTFH]

Really, you're asking which bits are wrong? How about all of it.

You suggested there would be 110,000 deaths with social distancing, and yet we've only had 34,000 to date with death rates reducing. And we've only faced this many deaths because we imported infected patients into care homes, which isn't exactly 'social distancing'.

We were never going to get 1.4 million deaths. The model that predicted that is flawed.

But, by all means keep scare mongering if you see the need, or you can look at the facts. Your choice.

34,000? Are you sure?

According to the ONS, it was over 33,800 up to 30th April. So to get to 34,000 would mean we're averaging 10 a day since then.
And that's based on the figures that we know of.
Then again, last time I checked, the UK figures are over 3,000 new cases per day, so it's not exactly under control either.

[Gibbon]

Whether they declined or not, the fact is that infected patients were imported into an environment which is enclosed and is surely a high risk location for the spread of viruses. I'm not saying the NHS are at fault for sending the patients back, or the care homes are at fault for not rejecting them (others can apportion blame as they see fit), but the fact that this happened in itself increased the number of infections and deaths in the UK.

But it shouldn't have done in a properly run home, that is the point. Care homes are meant to cope with infections. The other day on the local news they had a privatecare home celebrating VE day, all the old people huddled together with the staff, wearing no PPE. Our lass was going ballistic.

[Whorty]

But it shouldn't have done in a properly run home, that is the point. Care homes are meant to cope with infections. The other day on the local news they had a privatecare home celebrating VE day, all the old people huddled together with the staff, wearing no PPE. Our lass was going ballistic.

I'm not disagreeing with you; I'm merely saying that we imported infected patients back into care homes, care homes have a very high proportion of vulnerable people, and we have a high death rate in care homes.

I agree that care homes should be environments that cope with viruses, but clearly they can't.