Bank of England Base rate & other news

[Protagoras]

What the BoE doesn't appear to be considering is that people would generally accept greater debt than have their lifestyle curtailed.

With the cost of debt rising, don't people need to reduce other expenditure to service the debt absent sufficient income level increases, or is debt still too cheap to have sufficient behavioural effect?

[Zigenare]

With the cost of debt rising, don't people need to reduce other expenditure to service the debt absent sufficient income level increases, or is debt still too cheap to have sufficient behavioural effect?

Of course it's too cheap, what were interest rates like in the early 80s?

[JustKeepSwimming]

Core inflation holding steady at almost 7% is a big concern, more interest rates increases on the horizon which I'm sure will enrage loads of people.

6% EOY and 7 NEOY.

BoE will continue until rate > inflation and then hold before slowly reducing to 4-5% in 2025.

[Protagoras]

Of course it's too cheap, what were interest rates like in the early 80s?

The rate for much of the 20th century was around 5% - even during the 1930s it was 2% - and the increases started in the 1960s culminating in the higher rates that in the 1980s which were needed to combat inflation. So yes, the rate across the 1980s was over 8%, well over at some times.

Presumably we'll be seeing another rate rises soon, but I'm sure you're right that people prefer additional debt to belt tightening, especially those who've been used to ridiculously low rates for a prolonged period and believed that this was some sort of 'new normal'.

I think that the big concern must be the huge rise in UK national debt over the last 20 years (notwithstanding esoteric arguments about to whom it may be owed).

We live in a declining nation, but there's a reluctance to accept our lot, or to do anything much to arrest the decline.

Another problem is that we keep seeing news items about wage rises. Public sector and unionised labour can obtain these, but a lot of people are excluded from rate rises and I think that tends not to get mentioned.

[vetran]

The rate for much of the 20th century was around 5% - even during the 1930s it was 2% - and the increases started in the 1960s culminating in the higher rates that in the 1980s which were needed to combat inflation. So yes, the rate across the 1980s was over 8%, well over at some times.

Presumably we'll be seeing another rate rises soon, but I'm sure you're right that people prefer additional debt to belt tightening, especially those who've been used to ridiculously low rates for a prolonged period and believed that this was some sort of 'new normal'.

I think that the big concern must be the huge rise in UK national debt over the last 20 years (notwithstanding esoteric arguments about to whom it may be owed).

We live in a declining nation, but there's a reluctance to accept our lot, or to do anything much to arrest the decline.

Another problem is that we keep seeing news items about wage rises. Public sector and unionised labour can obtain these, but a lot of people are excluded from rate rises and I think that tends not to get mentioned.

oddly enough no

https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentand...demic%20period.

1.Other pages in this release


Other commentary from the latest labour market data can be found on these pages:

• Labour market overview
• Employment in the UK
• Vacancies and jobs in the UK
• Earnings and employment from Pay As You Earn Real Time Information, UK

Back to table of contents2.Main points for April to June 2023

• In April to June 2023, annual growth in regular pay (excluding bonuses) was 7.8%; this is the highest regular annual growth rate since comparable records began in 2001.
• Annual growth in employees’ average total pay (including bonuses) was 8.2% in April to June 2023; this total growth rate is affected by the NHS one-off bonus payments made in June 2023.
• In April to June 2023, annual growth in real terms (adjusted for inflation using Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers’ housing costs (CPIH)) rose on the year by 0.5% for total pay and 0.1% for regular pay.
• Annual average regular pay growth for the private sector was 8.2% in April to June 2023; this is the largest annual growth rate seen outside of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic period.
• Annual average regular pay growth for the public sector was 6.2% in April to June 2023; a larger annual growth rate was last seen in August to October 2001 (6.3%).
• The finance and business services sector saw the largest annual regular growth rate at 9.4%, followed by the manufacturing sector at 8.2%; this is the highest annual regular growth rate for the manufacturing sector since comparable records began in 2001.

Finance & business are of course the Belle of the ball.

[JustKeepSwimming]

oddly enough no

https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentand...demic%20period.



Finance & business are of course the Belle of the ball.

Private sector have been forced to due to labour shortages, that's starting to change so moving forward I think there is going to be less power to demand raises. Public sector is largely immune to labour shortages either way.

Banks I think will be giving big bonuses again this year, their profits are going to be massive, but not move much on salaries.

[vetran]

Private sector have been forced to due to labour shortages, that's starting to change so moving forward I think there is going to be less power to demand raises. Public sector is largely immune to labour shortages either way.

Banks I think will be giving big bonuses again this year, their profits are going to be massive, but not move much on salaries.

I saw about 10% but that included a new job. Though most were offering the 10%.

People having 5 years expertise in Fabric/Purview etc. aren't available yet, no matter how much the employer wants them.

[Protagoras]

oddly enough no

https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentand...demic%20period.

Indeed, but the figures are necessarily averages. All this shows to me is that some folks are less disadvantaged by inflation than others.

[vetran]

Indeed, but the figures are necessarily averages. All this shows to me is that some folks are less disadvantaged by inflation than others.

I agree I suspect manual labour is as usual dreadfully short of people with experience working for minimum wage for scumbag employers.

[SueEllen]

Private sector have been forced to due to labour shortages, that's starting to change so moving forward I think there is going to be less power to demand raises. Public sector is largely immune to labour shortages either way.

Who do you count as public sector - people like teachers, social workers, police officers, prison officers, probation officers, or just desk-based workers like job centre bods?