Bank of England Base rate & other news

[Lance]

Based on? I don't get how we can have very low perm demand, yet wages going up? surely it means it's an employer market and they wouldn't say yes to wage increases and would also be able to pay as little as possible and can pick and choose from whoever is looking.

where do you get very low perm demand from?

[jamesbrown]

Based on? I don't get how we can have very low perm demand, yet wages going up? surely it means it's an employer market and they wouldn't say yes to wage increases and would also be able to pay as little as possible and can pick and choose from whoever is looking.

Based on the ONS

The problem with anecdotes based on personal experience is that they aren’t very representative of the economy at large. Pay growth remains strong.

[JustKeepSwimming]

where do you get very low perm demand from?

https://kpmg.com/uk/en/home/media/pr...%20June%202020.

Based on? I don't get how we can have very low perm demand, yet wages going up? surely it means it's an employer market and they wouldn't say yes to wage increases and would also be able to pay as little as possible and can pick and choose from whoever is looking.

The same way AI stock is booming whilst 95% of the market is in a coma. We still have low unemployment and skill shortages. Not to mention these are below inflation increases, that's if your believe the inflation rate.

[dsc]

where do you get very low perm demand from?

See above, I was just putting the two together.

As for pay growth, is it offered wages to new employees driving the numbers up, or wage increase for people already in positions?

[JustKeepSwimming]

See above, I was just putting the two together.

As for pay growth, is it offered wages to new employees driving the numbers up, or wage increase for people already in positions?

Has to be all staff, there haven't been that many movers to move the needle that much compared to normal years. Its still a fall in real wages. It will be interesting to see what happens next. I think a lot of places gave bonuses in lieu of a pay rise in the hope of inflation dropping quickly.

[JustKeepSwimming]

FT

UK mortgages in arrears soar in second quarter

The value of UK residential mortgages in arrears jumped in the three months to June to the highest level in seven years while mortgage loans fell by the largest amount on record, according to a Bank of England survey on Tuesday.

In the second quarter, outstanding balances in arrears — borrowers failing to make payments equal to at least 1.5 per cent of the outstanding balance, or where the property is in possession — increased by 28.8 per cent compared with the same period last year, to £16.9bn, the highest since the third quarter of 2016.

[jamesbrown]

Crashy, crashy.

[JustKeepSwimming]

Those out of work on long term sick has now reached record levels. Which takes the shine of unemployment figures. Its higher than New Labour when there was valid criticism they were nudging people on long term sick to massage unemployment stats.

[dsc]

Has to be all staff, there haven't been that many movers to move the needle that much compared to normal years. Its still a fall in real wages. It will be interesting to see what happens next. I think a lot of places gave bonuses in lieu of a pay rise in the hope of inflation dropping quickly.

Than it's an even bigger surprise as there's every reason not to give out pay rises, especially with costs of everything going up (for the employers) and with perm positions getting loads of applicants.

[JustKeepSwimming]

Than it's an even bigger surprise as there's every reason not to give out pay rises, especially with costs of everything going up (for the employers) and with perm positions getting loads of applicants.

Not everything walks in lockstep. Payrises are typically based on the previous year. Add in that pay figures are based on YoY, a 2023 big rise for 22/23 year is going to be in the figures until 2024.

2023/24 raises will likely be muted, hiring freezes and redundancies really spook most employees to not rock the boat. I also think inflation will drop by then, but will come back end of 2024.

I think because 2022 was so crazy, beyond normal bubble crazy, it's going to mask what's going on for a while.