Who will win the French elections?

[OwlHoot]

No-one thought TRump would win.

WHS

Many Frenchies, unemployed and seeing their country increasingly overrun with immigrants, are as pissed off as hell!

That said, a lot also still have an unshakeable faith in socialism, in the face of all the evidence.

Talk about gluttons for punishment!

[NotAllThere]

I do apologise.

I must remember to understand the difference between probability and possibility.

Well at least someone does!

Perhaps if you showed your working, we'd be able to understand what you were attempting to explain.

There is a probability that Macron will win 100% to 0%

There is also a probability that Le Pen will win 100% to 0%

The reality is both of those probabilities will be nearly zero - but as they are both viable outcomes they will not be zero.

You see, if there are only two outcomes, the probability that Macron wins added to the probability that Le Pen wins must add up to 100%. Therefore it is not possible that both probabilities are nearly zero. Neraly 50% yes, mathematically, but in reality the dice are drastically loaded in favour of Macron.

[sasguru]

No-one thought TRump would win.

Quite. But the point is - now Trump is in, the French have noted what happens when you elect a populist moron: the initial chaos and his constant about turns.
Then they look over the channel to the other self-immolaters, the British, and realise they don't want that kind of chaos either.

[scooterscot]

No-one thought Murica had so many idiots.

FTFY

[NotAllThere]

No-one thought Murica had so many idiots.

No, I really think they did.

[jamesbrown]

We have polling for that The polls are quite clear, in a way they weren't clear at all on Trump or Brexit. Macron vs. Le Pen has never been within 15%. You may not believe them, but let's return here in two weeks and see. I predict a win for Macron with a very large margin.

Also, after Fillon, Macron was the least worst option for Brexit. With an extremist, Brexit would be totally sidelined. Macron is going to get bogged down in forming and attempting to run a gov't, so he won't be that important in the Brexit talks, regardless of his personal views.

[DimPrawn]

Macron wins by a mile.

65.5% of the vote.

[Troll]

Macron wins by a mile.

65.5% of the vote.

Will the 34.5 % now take to internet forums to bitch and whine like stuck pigs that they didn't get the result they wanted, or accept the democratic process?

[PurpleGorilla]

Will the 34.5 % now take to internet forums to bitch and whine like stuck pigs that they didn't get the result they wanted, or accept the democratic process?

The Tyranny of the Majority!

[scooterscot]

Never had a doubt. Once again Europeans prove jingoistic brexiters are a solitary breed.

Roll on very hard Brexit