Scottish Referendum Part 2 - Electric Boogaloo

[minestrone]

If the oil price were to go up there is plenty of scope for keeping production levels at least constant if not raising them.

North Sea oil and gas production to reverse 15 years of decline - Telegraph

Extraction technologies have blasted away the predictions of a demise in oil production.

As the article states and what I already knew was that the small upturn in oil was down to significant investment made when the oil price was high. That investment will not be repeated.

Also the tax was reduced last year to keep production going but essentially the oil is becoming too expensive to retrieve.

Scotland will never make more than a couple of billion a year from oil now, it is not insignificant but when you are running deficit of 15 billion it's nothing.

[Mordac]

And yet Ruth Davidson - a Tory - is currently more popular in Scotland than Sturgeon.

That's probably because she doesn't have an ego the size of a small planet. Sturgeon's call for another Indyref is entirely down to her ego. She wants a seat at the top table (doesn't matter which table) and she knows that's never going to happen at Westminster - which explains why she never bothered to become an MP.
As head of govt of an independent Scotland, she will be one of the twenty-somethings, and will have a voice (albeit a small squeaky one) in EU policy.
Of course the EU would be mad to admit Scotland as an independent member - the last thing they need is another economy to bail out. Scotland has been heavily subsidised for decades. The oil is running out, all we hear about North Sea oil nowadays is the environmental impact of decommissioning the redundant rigs.
Sturgeon cares little about the Scottish economy, any price is a price worth paying to satisfy her ambitions. A proper modern day Lady Macbeth, if you will.

Cue Scooty rant...

[d000hg]

You can only peg a currency to a similar economy moving at a similar speed.

If it was that easy we would have pegged the pound to the dollar on the eve of the brexit vote.

Even in short term special situations? Seems like it could be done as a special measure?

You would need to re-join as a new member.

That's not a simple task. Especially when you have no money.

We don't know that. One week we hear "Scotland would have to go to the back of the queue" another week "Scotland could retain membership" and later "They could be fast-tracked". It's all down to negotiation and the various parties deciding what is in their best interests. If the EU members want Scotland to be fast-tracked or pre-approved, it can surely happen that way. If they don't want Scotland in, they can do that too.

[BlasterBates]

Even in short term special situations? Seems like it could be done as a special measure?

We don't know that. One week we hear "Scotland would have to go to the back of the queue" another week "Scotland could retain membership" and later "They could be fast-tracked". It's all down to negotiation and the various parties deciding what is in their best interests. If the EU members want Scotland to be fast-tracked or pre-approved, it can surely happen that way. If they don't want Scotland in, they can do that too.

It's not even short term, both Denmark and Switzerland peg to the Euro. Perfectly normal for small countries.

[northernladyuk]

It's not even short term, both Denmark and Switzerland peg to the Euro. Perfectly normal for small countries.

The UK pegged to the ERM I seem to remember.

[MrMarkyMark]

The sad thing is that they, Scotland, would be taken to the cleaners like Greece and Spain.

That's the reality.

[Chuck]

The EU is about to lose its second largest net contributor. It does not want another parasite joining.

The Spaniards won't let Scotland in. The Germans won't want Scotland in. The Scots, when they realise the price they have to pay, won't want to join anyway.

It's all moot anyway. May has the final say over when the indyref2 happens. She will be mad to let it happen before Brexit negotiations are complete, it would be just too much for the government to cope with. The world will have changed greatly by the time the Scots vote.

With the Turkish and the Dutch kicking off right now, this could play right in to the hands of Wilders. Which in turn could spur the French on to Le Pen. The EU could be on a very different course in two years time.

[northernladyuk]

The EU is about to lose its second largest net contributor. It does not want another parasite joining.

The Spaniards won't let Scotland in. The Germans won't want Scotland in. The Scots, when they realise the price they have to pay, won't want to join anyway.

It's all moot anyway. May has the final say over when the indyref2 happens. She will be mad to let it happen before Brexit negotiations are complete, it would be just too much for the government to cope with. The world will have changed greatly by the time the Scots vote.

With the Turkish and the Dutch kicking off right now, this could play right in to the hands of Wilders. Which in turn could spur the French on to Le Pen. The EU could be on a very different course in two years time.

The UK parliament has the say constitutionally, but Sturgeon could be banking on them digging their heels in. Then if she calls and runs a referendum without the UK's blessing, what does the UK do, go all Spanish on them? It would be the best way to increase support for independence.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/201...-public-office

[minestrone]

The sad thing is that they, Scotland, would be taken to the cleaners like Greece and Spain.

That's the reality.

Exactly, like happened to Italy and Greece we would end up having our government replaced with civil servants chosen by the EU.

[northernladyuk]

Exactly, like happened to Italy and Greece we would end up having our government replaced with civil servants chosen by the EU.

When did this happen in Italy?