[Merged]Brexit stuff

[jamesbrown]

My big fear is that the UK is hit in a game of high stakes porker.

So we haven't seen the back of Hamface afterall?

Yes, I think that's right though. It's definitely a risk, and the early indications aren't good. There's an assumption, in negotiating, that self-interest (rationality) will prevail, but it might not if serious splits emerge among the member states and the EC takes a bigger role. If May were to settle on a position herself, I'm sure she'd opt for staying in the single market on the condition that freedom of movement were reinterpreted to mean freedom of movement for workers (around 70k a year). However, realistically, this is unlikely to deliver a significant cut in inward migration (work would simply be organised in advance) and I don't think May would survive this position. Personally, I think the risk to London is much more subtle than Euro-clearing, although this makes the headlines. The problem with threats to Euro-clearing is that it's a protectionist move that will undermine confidence in the EU (w/r to being a free trading block) and its placement in London is built on the acceptance of English law around the world (unlike EU law, as evidenced by the recent Apple shenanigans). No, I think this is just France sabre-rattling. The real risk to London is that it loses its financial ecosystem over time (death by a thousand cuts), i.e. the ability to undertake all manner of transactions in one place, and this is what we'll need to guard against, as far as possible, through equivalence (although equivalence itself risks some aspects of this).

[WTFH]

How is security and defence cooperation a threat? Obviously I have an opinion on how they should act, as do you, but I have no expectations on how they will act.

Security and defence were one of the Brexit campaign's key points. UK wanting it's own and having nothing to do with the EU. To say that it is now an important bargaining tool is saying that this is another claim in the campaign that was false.

[WTFH]

A good scenario would be a compromise agreement in all areas that are pressing upon our departure, which may involve an ongoing budget contribution to support common programmes that are mutually beneficial (e.g. Horizon 2020) and, most certainly, an agreement on residency rights. A good atmosphere surrounding the negotiation would help (). Practically speaking, this is likely to mean our leaving the single market and the customs union, in order to deliver on the promises w/r to free movement and trade, but preserving cooperation in other areas (security and defense etc). I think there's a good argument for even closer cooperation in some sectors, but this is going to be tough in the financial sector because the French and others are likely to entrench their positions w/r to the City. There's a good argument for equivalence in place of passporting, but there are technical issues to resolve (the risk of departure from equivalence over time). Crucially, I think we need a timetable for a comprehensive trade agreement, which should (in a spirit of cooperation) be much simpler and more comprehensive than the agreement with Canada (for example) since we meet and, in most cases, exceed the regulatory standards of the single market (we proposed many of them). Trade nowadays is not about the common external tariff, but about regulatory standards or so-called "non-tariff barriers". Of course, these standards are becoming more global in scope than regional, which is good in the long-term.

Of, to summarise, "Brexit doesn't mean Brexit"

[SueEllen]

Of, to summarise, "Brexit doesn't mean Brexit"

Well some people voted out just to stop free movement of people.

[GB9]

Security and defence were one of the Brexit campaign's key points. UK wanting it's own and having nothing to do with the EU. To say that it is now an important bargaining tool is saying that this is another claim in the campaign that was false.

I think you are inventing again.

[sasguru]

Security and defence were one of the Brexit campaign's key points. UK wanting it's own and having nothing to do with the EU. To say that it is now an important bargaining tool is saying that this is another claim in the campaign that was false.

I think if the Germans put their mind to being a military power they might be quite successful, don't you think?
Quite apart from them being able to afford it, while we can't.

[WTFH]

I think you are inventing again.

I don't invent your posts.


http://forums.contractoruk.com/gener...ml#post2253446

[original PM]

Well some people voted out just to stop free movement of people.

Indeed - or just so we would not have to listen to the crap that comes from the EU parliament.

[jamesbrown]

Of, to summarise, "Brexit doesn't mean Brexit"

Leaving the single market and customs union doesn't constitute Brexit?

Also, your attempts to conflate the views of everyone who voted Brexit as mirroring those of any one political party, campaigning group, or political figurehead are completely fallacious and, honestly, quite tedious.

[GB9]

I don't invent your posts.


http://forums.contractoruk.com/gener...ml#post2253446

What???