Britain would go to the ‘back of the queue' for US trade deals post-Brexit

[sasguru]

My opposition with the EU is down to its lack of democracy. It is ironic that a democratically elected US president, who speaks for over 300 million people, should encourage an undemocratic super state in Europe. The "president" of the EU wants to have similar powers to the US prez, and control over a similar number of people, but without being elected by them. Shouldn't this give Obama pause for thought?

As for scare stories about America not trading with the UK, frankly Obama (who I respect) is wrong. It is 2016 and trade is global. I am intending to buy a Ford car later this year and Ford will supply it, without fail. Anyone who thinks otherwise is living in Disney Land.

He didn't say that America wouldn't trade with the UK, only that, not unreasonably, large trading blocs would get priority in trade deals.
The fact that you can buy a Ford so easily at a competitive price hides the fact that it's the culmination of a long and complicated process whereby your Ford which could have been assembled in Belgium, say, is available for sale in the UK without tariffs.

[original PM]

Yes you're probably right. I am missing your point.
Could you explain it in a little more depth, please?

Yeah not sure how to phrase it but maybe, just maybe, we should not be so keen to give away our freedoms to a non elected central European power headed and driven by a nation that was killing people in their millions to achieve just that goal 70 years ago.

Does that help?

[sasguru]

Yeah not sure how to phrase it but maybe, just maybe, we should not be so keen to give away our freedoms to a non elected central European power headed and driven by a nation that was killing people in their millions to achieve just that goal 70 years ago.

Does that help?

There is a European parliament which is representative and which we should engage with.
There are flaws in the EU which we should be active in trying to reform.

Coming out of Europe is in fact analogous to if, in 1939, Britain had left Europe to its own devices and made a deal with Hitler. Both situations lead to German dominance. Britain is one of the few countries that can act as a counterweight to Germany.
And in fact in economic terms, Germany and the UK agree on much, like open markets.

[jamesbrown]

We're going to have to agree to disagree, but I respect your POV. At least your arguments have some cogency about them.
YOu talk of "vast swathes of [EU] legislation" but as a contractor who works in Europe I don't see that. THe real problem is the vast swathes of poorly thought out UK legislation: IR35, the most complicated tax system in Europe etc. BY contrast being able to work in Europe at a moments notice is a real boon.
I guess some people don't get to see the benefits first hand, but even then I struggle to see which EU legislation has hobbled us as opposed to protecting the average working person.
The Tory instinct is for unfettered capitalism and I suspect leaving Europe will result in a high hours, low employment rights, low pay economy for the average worker.
For the working class to vote Brexit is like turkeys voting for Christmas.

Indeed, and I'm not a zealot on any of these issues; I've arrived here on the basis of my impression of the relative costs and benefits, but I'm also heavily discounting the period immediately after a vote to leave, which I do think would entail significant disruption in markets that would likely propagate, to some degree, into the real economy. This is where we need honesty on both sides. There will be a short-term cost but, in my view, this is a long-term decision.

To offer some contrary personal experience, I currently do about 90% of my business in the US, with the remainder in the EU, including the UK. Having a trade deal with the US, or being outside of the EU, wouldn't materially impact my ability to trade with these countries. The majority of trade is done outside of trade deals. The vast majority of UK trade is within the UK. I accept that free movement makes it easier to physically work inside the EU, but it also entails significant costs.

Indeed, in terms of the average working person, I take the contrary view. I dare say that you and I benefit from uncontrolled immigration, on balance. Our jobs and wages aren't at risk, we have little concern about living costs, we benefit from cheap services, and from the unbalanced UK housing market, and our specialist skills protect us, to a large degree, from the worst impacts of recessions. On the contrary, it is the average working person that suffers, and this is what irritates me, for example, about the Treasury dossier that attempts to distribute GDP evenly across UK households. Putting aside the dishonesty that conflates business services and household incomes, the benefits of economic growth are highly uneven across the income spectrum. It's a sad indictment of the consensus that has emerged in British politics that the socialist case for leaving the EU isn't really being put; as in, the arguments are completely absent, whether you agree with them or not.

[AtW]

So basically you're saying the UK has to roll over and take it. Appeasement never works and it's certainly not part of the British character. This is one of the many reasons I'm for leave.

What I am saying is that UK should follow rules of the club just like everybody else.

Appeasement is what EU was doing all the time to keep UK happy - at the same time UK was doing everything to make life in EU difficult with constant whining and custom demands.

Part of British character is NOT to be strategically dumb and for that reason STAYING is the only option.

[AtW]

So your argument is that we are tulip without Europe. I would say, times have changed.

The argument is that outside of EU it would be a LOT harder to trade - French and Germans will make sure of it to prevent any other from leaving, they would HAVE TO DO IT - make example of the first stupid state that thought it could do just fine outside. It's a bit late for that - should have thought about it at the time when Norway and Swiss were negotiating.

[AtW]

Your prerogative. I'm voting LEAVE. I can't stand the status quo.

You also vote Korbyn, and he votes to STAY. What gives?

[AtW]

What I do know is the UK has been a relatively successful and stable nation for many decades. I have far more faith in the place than I do the EU.

And France wasn't?

Germany?

Italy (for thousands of years now)?



I give you just one example.

Right now when AtW Ltd sells to EU it needs to charge VAT at rates of each relevant member country. Thankfully we are NOT required to VAT register in each of those countries, instead we pay one amount to HMRC UK which would then distribute money to relevant member states.

Now if we were outside of EU we'd most likely have to make a choice NOT to sell to some EU countries that don't make it commercially viable to register for VAT there, so that's big loss to business since every extra pound above costs is profit.

You might contract for a UK business but not have a clue how important EU is for them.

GBP would also drop massively - parity with EUR is almost certain, inflation up and BoE interest rates up - disaster for the economy from start and then new EU rules will come into play to make it harder for UK to export.

[PurpleGorilla]

Britain would go to the ‘back of the queue' for US trade deals post-Brexit

My opposition with the EU is down to its lack of democracy. It is ironic that a democratically elected US president, who speaks for over 300 million people, should encourage an undemocratic super state in Europe. The "president" of the EU wants to have similar powers to the US prez, and control over a similar number of people, but without being elected by them. Shouldn't this give Obama pause for thought?

As for scare stories about America not trading with the UK, frankly Obama (who I respect) is wrong. It is 2016 and trade is global. I am intending to buy a Ford car later this year and Ford will supply it, without fail. Anyone who thinks otherwise is living in Disney Land.

Agree with you 99%.

But don't buy a Ford lol!

[PurpleGorilla]

You also vote Korbyn, and he votes to STAY. What gives?

Yes and Corbyn believes in CND and I don't.

Must we have perfect correlation of views?