Britain would go to the ‘back of the queue' for US trade deals post-Brexit

[sasguru]

Indeed, that is where we disagree; it doesn't relate to the status quo, because there isn't one. The last referendum was in 1975, another one is highly unlikely. It requires a special alignment of political factors that have nothing to do with the costs and benefits of EU membership. Think about that for a moment. From now on, the most likely departure scenario is a Eurozone implosion. The costs of leaving under such terms could be enormous, financially and politically. Our continued membership means an increasing exposure to Eurozone integration or, indeed, to the lack thereof. These things happen gradually over time. The costs of leaving now are much greater than they were in 1975.

The Greece issue shows that you cannot underestimate the will to continue with the European project. So to me the risks lie less with an implosion than with more unwanted federalism. But that is decades away and I don't see why there wouldn't be another referndum if the people demanded it as in fact they have demanded this one.

[Flashman]

European Free Trade Association |

So we would then have an agreement with Norway, Lichtenstein, Iceland and Switzerland, and what do we do with the other 99.5 % of our trade ?

The word "European" may have been appropriate 40 years ago, perhaps "European Rump" might be appropriate.

EFTA has a free trade agreement with the EU. Its pretty close to the EU in fact. Norway for instance is part of the Schengen zone and chips in lots of cash to EU projects.

But importantly it doesn't have any of the political baggage that comes with this 'lets pretend we're the United States of Europe'. There's no EFTA Parliament. No single currency. No EFTA army.

It's just a trade group. If only Europe as a whole had gone this route.

[sasguru]

EFTA has a free trade agreement with the EU. Its pretty close to the EU in fact. Norway for instance is part of the Schengen zone and chips in lots of cash to EU projects.

Importantly it doesn't have any of the political baggage that comes with this 'lets pretend we're the United States of Europe'. There's no EFTA Parliament.

It's just a trade group. If only Europe as a whole had gone this route.

It's interesting you bring up Norway.

Here's the reality of Norway's position:

We pay, but have no say: that’s the reality of Norway’s relationship with the EU | Espen Barth Eide | Opinion | The Guardian

[jamesbrown]

The Greece issue shows that you cannot underestimate the will to continue with the European project. So to me the risks lie less with an implosion than with more unwanted federalism. But that is decades away and I don't see why there wouldn't be another referndum if the people demanded it as in fact they have demanded this one.

Greece is completely unresolved. In fact, I would anticipate a showdown between the IMF and the Eurozone institutions in the months following our referendum. Greece and others may yet be casualties of integration; it's extremely difficult to see how they wouldn't be. Alternatively, integration will proceed too slowly and the chronic, structural, problems with weak growth, deflation, and unemployment will persist; a slow motion car crash until properly extreme gov'ts are elected. You have to judge the Eurozone institutions on their past successes

As I say, in 20-30 years, whether the greatest risks stem from creeping federalism or from the failures of political and fiscal integration, it will be even more expensive to distance ourselves, and we cannot rely on our politicians to offer a timely referendum. The people didn't demand this referendum. It was OBE; a hamfisted misjudgement in party management, just as it was in 1975.

[sasguru]

Greece is completely unresolved. In fact, I would anticape a showdown between the IMF and the Eurozone institutions in the months following our referendum. Greece and others may yet be casualties of integration; it's extremely difficult to see how they wouldn't be. Alternatively, integration will proceed too slowly and the chronic, structural, problems with weak growth, deflation, and unemployment will persist; a slow motion car crash until properly extreme gov'ts are elected. You have to judge the Eurozone institutions on their past successes

As I say, in 20-30 years, whether the greatest risks stem from creeping federalism or from the failures of political and fiscal integration, it will be even more expensive to distance ourselves, and we cannot rely on our politicians to offer a timely referendum. The people didn't demand this referendum. It was OBE; a hamfisted misjudgement in party management, just as it was in 1975.

I think Greece will be dumped out of the Euro, if it threatens it again - that will be the resolution to that problem.
The German chancellor has said as much.
I'm not sure why you think any more costs will be incurred if we have to leave later due to the EU not working for some reason. We simply leave and incur the same penalties as we will do now. Or if the EU truly becomes really dysfunctional, the costs of leaving, by definition, must be far less.
And yes the people did demand the referendum indirectly - by voting in droves for UKIP.
The Tories had to pay attention to that and to their own Eurosceptics.

[jamesbrown]

I think Greece will be dumped out of the Euro, if it threatens it again - that will be the resolution to that problem.
The German chancellor has said as much.
I'm not sure why you think any more costs will be incurred if we have to leave later due to the EU not working for some reason. We simply leave and incur the same penalties as we will do now. Or if the EU truly becomes really dysfunctional, the costs of leaving, by definition, must be far less.
And yes the people did demand the referendum indirectly - by voting in droves for UKIP.
The Tories had to pay attention to that and to their own Eurosceptics.

The only reason that Greece hasn't been booted out so far is the risk of contagion. That risk remains and a Grexit would likely prompt a chain reaction, not only in the markets and financial institutions, but in the political capital of the EU, at a time when that capital has never been so low.

With regard to costs, is it your contention that the costs of leaving now are the same as they were in 1975? If so, I can't see how you've arrived there, given the political journey from the common market to the Eurozone and the vast swathes of legislation from which we'd need to unpick ourselves, or simply accept (with all associated costs in terms of our productivity), were we to leave today. Crucially, the political project has only just begun, and the idea that we have a special status in laughable.

In terms of responding to UKIP, that's precisely what I mean about an alignment of political factors that have nothing to do with the costs and benefits of EU membership. The popularity of UKIP is largely about uncontrolled migration. Hamface and Gidiot didn't expect a majority, and neither do they view this as a referendum on controlled migration. Indeed, our economic growth is predicated on the opposite. In other words, we're dependent now on a dishonest process that has come about inadvertently, just as it did in 1975. It hardly inspires confidence about a well-timed and honest opportunity to re-evaluate in future. No, we must take this sh1tshow as our best and only chance.

[sasguru]

The only reason that Greece hasn't been booted out so far is the risk of contagion. That risk remains and a Grexit would likely prompt a chain reaction, not only in the markets and financial institutions, but in the political capital of the EU, at a time when that capital has never been so low.

With regard to costs, is it your contention that the costs of leaving now are the same as they were in 1975? If so, I can't see how you've arrived there, given the political journey from the common market to the Eurozone and the vast swathes of legislation from which we'd need to unpick ourselves, or simply accept (with all associated costs in terms of our productivity), were we to leave today. Crucially, the political project has only just begun, and the idea that we have a special status in laughable.

In terms of responding to UKIP, that's precisely what I mean about an alignment of political factors that have nothing to do with the costs and benefits of EU membership. The popularity of UKIP is largely about uncontrolled migration. Hamface and Gidiot didn't expect a majority, and neither do they view this as a referendum on controlled migration. Indeed, our economic growth is predicated on the opposite. In other words, we're dependent now on a dishonest process that has come about inadvertently, just as it did in 1975. It hardly inspires confidence about a well-timed and honest opportunity to re-evaluate in future. No, we must take this sh1tshow as our best and only chance.

We're going to have to agree to disagree, but I respect your POV. At least your arguments have some cogency about them.
YOu talk of "vast swathes of [EU] legislation" but as a contractor who works in Europe I don't see that. THe real problem is the vast swathes of poorly thought out UK legislation: IR35, the most complicated tax system in Europe etc. BY contrast being able to work in Europe at a moments notice is a real boon.
I guess some people don't get to see the benefits first hand, but even then I struggle to see which EU legislation has hobbled us as opposed to protecting the average working person.
The Tory instinct is for unfettered capitalism and I suspect leaving Europe will result in a high hours, low employment rights, low pay economy for the average worker.
For the working class to vote Brexit is like turkeys voting for Christmas.

[original PM]

Too many generalities coming from both sides.

I want to know:

What will happen to the car making Renaissance that has been spearheaded by primarily the Japanese in the last few decades.
What will happen to the factories and supply chains that make the wings for the Airbus.
How will this affect the last large world class manufacturing companies we have: BA and RR.
What have we got to trade with India and china
What happens to the 45% of our exports that goes to Europe.
How does this affect the City.
Etc.

Son seven decades ago we were just finishing a war with those who you seek to slide into bed with now.

So to say anything about the Japanese Renaissance in car manufacturing in the last few decades is somewhat missing the point.

[sasguru]

Son seven decades ago we were just finishing a war with those who you seek to slide into bed with now.
So to say anything about the Japanese Renaissance in car manufacturing in the last few decades is somewhat missing the point.

Yes you're probably right. I am missing your point.
Could you explain it in a little more depth, please?

[unixman]

My opposition with the EU is down to its lack of democracy. It is ironic that a democratically elected US president, who speaks for over 300 million people, should encourage an undemocratic super state in Europe. The "president" of the EU wants to have similar powers to the US prez, and control over a similar number of people, but without being elected by them. Shouldn't this give Obama pause for thought?

As for scare stories about America not trading with the UK, frankly Obama (who I respect) is wrong. It is 2016 and trade is global. I am intending to buy a Ford car later this year and Ford will supply it, without fail. Anyone who thinks otherwise is living in Disney Land.