Originally posted by FatLazyContractor
View Post
- Visitors can check out the Forum FAQ by clicking this link. You have to register before you can post: click the REGISTER link above to proceed. To start viewing messages, select the forum that you want to visit from the selection below. View our Forum Privacy Policy.
- Want to receive the latest contracting news and advice straight to your inbox? Sign up to the ContractorUK newsletter here. Every sign up will also be entered into a draw to WIN £100 Amazon vouchers!
Brexit looming
Collapse
X
-
-
Originally posted by Troll View PostWe already share Intel across bordersOriginally posted by MaryPoppinsI'd still not breastfeed a naziOriginally posted by vetranUrine is quite nourishingComment
-
Originally posted by sasguru View PostLinky please?
A specific example (from a recent ORB poll) is provided here (there are others, but I can't be arsed to look them out ).
Of course, the difficulty of making these distributional adjustments is that you need a larger sample size than the typical poll provides. It's all disputable. However, it's also intuitively reasonable that the net effects of various turnout factors will favour Leave, because the strongest predictor (IIRC, the only one with any significant bearing on voting preference) is age, and likelihood of turnout is strongly related to age.
I still don't believe it will be enough, but I expect the results will be much closer than the ~60/40 that many remainiacs expect, particularly when factoring in events, as there are no events that can really improve the odds of a Remain vote, but many events that can reduce those odds.Comment
-
Originally posted by jamesbrown View PostSome analysis here.
A specific example (from a recent ORB poll) is provided here (there are others, but I can't be arsed to look them out ).
Of course, the difficulty of making these distributional adjustments is that you need a larger sample size than the typical poll provides. It's all disputable. However, it's also intuitively reasonable that the net effects of various turnout factors will favour Leave, because the strongest predictor (IIRC, the only one with any significant bearing on voting preference) is age, and likelihood of turnout is strongly related to age.
I still don't believe it will be enough, but I expect the results will be much closer than the ~60/40 that many remainiacs expect, particularly when factoring in events, as there are no events that can really improve the odds of a Remain vote, but many events that can reduce those odds.
And until that issue is fixed I'm inclined not to trust them.
However the bookies who must use some (different) statos usually get it right
http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/...bership-resultHard Brexit now!
#prayfornodealComment
-
Originally posted by sasguru View PostThere's been much discussion in the statistical press (Significance and others) about why the polls failed in the general election, with inconclusive results.
And until that issue is fixed I'm inclined not to trust them.
However the bookies who must use some (different) statos usually get it right
Brexit Referendum Betting Odds | Oddschecker
http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpo...tting-markets/
When the implied probabilities are translated into discrete outcomes (i.e. max likelihood), the betting odds in the last GE were no better at predicting those outcomes than their poll-aggregator (electionforecast.co.uk).Comment
-
Originally posted by jamesbrown View PostSometimes they do. OTOH, I'm not aware of any conclusive evidence on that. For example:
http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpo...tting-markets/
When the implied probabilities are translated into discrete outcomes (i.e. max likelihood), the betting odds in the last GE were no better at predicting those outcomes than their poll-aggregator (electionforecast.co.uk).Comment
-
BTW, I don't think there's anything particularly magic about how bookies do this. There's a lot of subjectivity (and many variables involved), and they also need to account for how bets are actually placed (tendency to back a favourite, for example), in order to avoid over-exposing themselves. Take an exchange like Betfair, which is essentially an opinion aggregator. They tend to offer similar odds to regular bookies. It just depends whether you prefer the gut instincts of the bookies, the betting public, or the general public.Comment
-
Comment
-
-
Originally posted by DimPrawn View PostProbably.
Comment
- Home
- News & Features
- First Timers
- IR35 / S660 / BN66
- Employee Benefit Trusts
- Agency Workers Regulations
- MSC Legislation
- Limited Companies
- Dividends
- Umbrella Company
- VAT / Flat Rate VAT
- Job News & Guides
- Money News & Guides
- Guide to Contracts
- Successful Contracting
- Contracting Overseas
- Contractor Calculators
- MVL
- Contractor Expenses
Advertisers
Contractor Services
CUK News
- How to answer at interview, ‘What’s your greatest weakness?’ Nov 14 09:59
- Business Asset Disposal Relief changes in April 2025: Q&A Nov 13 09:37
- How debt transfer rules will hit umbrella companies in 2026 Nov 12 09:28
- IT contractor demand floundering despite Autumn Budget 2024 Nov 11 09:30
- An IR35 bill of £19m for National Resources Wales may be just the tip of its iceberg Nov 7 09:20
- Micro-entity accounts: Overview, and how to file with HMRC Nov 6 09:27
- Will HMRC’s 9% interest rate bully you into submission? Nov 5 09:10
- Business Account with ANNA Money Nov 1 15:51
- Autumn Budget 2024: Reeves raids contractor take-home pay Oct 31 14:11
- How Autumn Budget 2024 affects homes, property and mortgages Oct 31 09:23
Comment